Giannis vs. the Cavs: Betting the NBA's Central Division
“I don't think the Bucks are fixed. I do think that they are better under Doc and I think a lot of that was just they couldn't get any worse under Griffin.”
NBC Sports Lead Betting Analyst Jay Croucher (@croucherJD) discussing the state of the Milwaukee Bucks three weeks removed from the NBA All-Star Game.
On today’s Bet the EDGE Croucher and Drew Dinsick took a look at the NBA’s Central Division and specifically the Milwaukee Bucks (-215) and the Cleveland Cavaliers (+165). Milwaukee leads the Cavs by a mere ½ game in the standings, but the two sharps see the Bucks trending in the right direction.
“I think that Pat Beverley has helped them. Middleton coming back is going to help a lot…but I don't think they have a ceiling that really beats a healthy Boston,” said Croucher.
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Dinsick (@whale_capper) did not argue with Croucher’s assessment.
“The Bucks at least are approaching full strength, and they are now in a phase where Doc Rivers knows what he has to work with, and he's got these guys playing better regular season basketball than they were playing in the previous stretch when he immediately took over…I think ultimately the Bucks performing at a level that gets them into the #2 or #3 seed free and clear is a fair expectation.”
The Celtics (-110) are favored to represent the Eastern Conference in the NBA Finals with the Milwaukee Bucks (+280) nipping at their heels. The Cavaliers (+1200) are longshots to win the East despite currently sitting as the #3 seed.
As previously noted, their odds to win the Central Division are much shorter and Croucher does give Cavs’ backers a fighting chance to cash those Central Division tickets.
“I think the Bucks should certainly be clear favorites. The only thing is Cleveland looks like they will have the tiebreaker in this one which is helpful, and Mitchell and Mobley will come back and their schedule the rest of the season is not super difficult.”
Both Dinsick and Croucher agree in the end the Bucks are rightfully favored if for no other reason than their star is playing the best basketball of his career on the offensive end.
“What you're seeing from Giannis right now he's performing at a level that I don't remember seeing in his career to this point,” said Dinsick. “I didn't know he had this gear offensively frankly.”
Croucher supported Dinsick’s claim with a look at the analytics.
“He (Giannis) has gotten significantly better (this season). He's shooting better from everywhere. He's shooting 83% at the rim with over 50% of his field goal attempts taken at the rim. From floater range last year, he shot 35%. This year he is shooting 45% and he takes 25% of his shots from floater range. That's insane. Mid-range, he is shooting 37% after being 35% on long 2’s and shooting 30% from three as well which is not good, but that's the best he’s shot in the past three years. He’s at another level.”
For those still harboring thoughts of buying in on Giannis’ stark improvement in the form of an MVP ticket, slow your roll. Antetokounmpo (+1800) is still considered a long shot for that honor as it is still looking like that race is a two-man battle between Nikola Jokic (-190) and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (+265).
Enjoy the stretch run in the NBA’s regular season.
