Getting Defensive: Week 7

Every NFL season is filled with unexpected happenings and downright weirdness. The 2023 campaign has been no exception—and there’s most assuredly something unexpected going on in New England this year.

Although when you really think about it, it’s not that unexpected at all.

To say the Patriots have been awful offensively of late is an affront to awfulness. Until Ezekiel Elliott plowed into the end zone in the second half of Sunday’s loss to the Las Vegas Raiders, the Pats had gone 12 full quarters without scoring a touchdown. In New England’s last 33 possessions, the team has made it into the opponent’s red zone all of twice.

After six games, the 1-5 Patriots are 27th in the NFL In total offense. Dead last in the AFC in scoring. Tied for third in the league with 11 giveaways. And at this point in the season, no team in the NFL has surrendered more fantasy points to team defenses than the Pats.

This week, the Patriots play host to a Buffalo Bills team that has been among the most productive in fantasy football this year—so much so that no defense in the AFC has scored more fantasy points. The Bills are giving up yardage, but they aren’t allowing points. Buffalo’s scoring defense ranks third in the NFL, the team is tied with the Baltimore Ravens for the most sacks in the league with 24 and Buffalo has snagged 13 takeaways—second-most in the league.

In short, edge-rusher A.J. Epenesa and the Bills are doing all the things that fantasy managers want defenses to do heading into a matchup with a team doing everything fantasy managers want in a matchup.

In a week with six teams on a bye and few big-name “sure things,” the Bills are easily the No. 1 team defense of Week 7.

THE NO-DOUBTERS

San Francisco 49ers (at Minnesota Vikings)

The 49ers are still licking their wounds from their first loss of the season, but that defeat can’t be blamed on the team’s defense. No team in the NFC is allowing fewer yards per game, no team in the league is surrendering fewer points per game, the Niners are tied with the aforementioned Bills for the third-most takeaways with 11 and the Niners are ninth in fantasy points among team defenses. The Vikings are sixth in the league in fantasy points per game given up to team defenses, and that was with superstar Justin Jefferson on the team. Now, with Jefferson sidelined, the Minnesota offense struggled to move the ball last week against the Chicago Bears.

Cleveland Browns (at Indianapolis Colts)

There may have been some question as to whether the Cleveland defense was legit, but those questions were answered in last week’s upset win over the previously unbeaten 49ers. As has been the case all season long, the Browns were nearly impossible to move the ball on—Cleveland leads the league in total defense and pass defense and ranks fourth in run defense. The Browns are barely allowing 200 total yards and 120 passing yards per game heading into a matchup with a Colts team led by a backup quarterback that gave up three sacks and four takeaways to the Jacksonville Jaguars a week ago.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Atlanta Falcons)

The Buccaneers lost fairly decisively last week to the Detroit Lions, but the Tampa defense wasn’t to blame for the defeat. After six weeks, the Buccaneers are once again stout against the run, allowing the seventh-fewest rushing yards per game. They are also eighth in scoring defense and 10th in fantasy points among defenses. The Falcons are a .500 football team, but they are hardly an offensive powerhouse, and they are highly reliant on the run to set up the pass. Atlanta is also eighth in the league in fantasy points allowed to defenses.

Pittsburgh Steelers (at Los Angeles Rams)

The Steelers certainly aren’t 3-2 because of their offense—and to be frank the defense has scuffled through the air, allowing the seventh-most passing yards in the NFL. But the Steelers rank fifth in fantasy points per game among defenses, and the reason for that can be spelled out in two words—pass rush. Pittsburgh has tallied 17 sacks in five games this season, and Sunday they face a Los Angeles team that has struggled to protect Matthew Stafford off the edge. Look for T.J. Watt and/or Alex Highsmith to make Stafford’s life miserable in Week 7.

New Orleans Saints (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)

The Saints are struggling somewhat under new quarterback Derek Carr, but Dennis Allen’s defense has played well—the Saints rank among the NFL’s top-10 in total defense (fifth), pass defense (sixth), run defense (ninth) and scoring defense (fifth). The Saints have amassed 10 takeaways and rank third among all defenses in fantasy points. Now that productive fantasy defense gets to host a Jacksonville Jaguars team that has been erratic at times offensively this season, especially on the road. If you have been rolling with the Saints, keep on keeping on.

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Washington Commanders (at New York Giants)

The Commanders are a hard defense to figure out. On paper, they have the makings of a solid unit—a loaded defensive front, decent linebackers and some talent on the back end. But it hasn’t come together in 2023—Washington ranks 29th in total defense, 27th against the pass and 30th in points allowed. However, this week the Commanders face a Giants team whose turnstile of an offensive line is on pace to allow 90 sacks in 2023. No team in the NFL has been kinder to opposing defenses this season than the Giants. Something has to give here.

Green Bay Packers (at Denver Broncos)

The Green Bay Packers are another team that would be in much better shape if the offense was playing at the level of the defense—the Packers are ninth in the league against the pass, allowing fewer than 195 passing yards per game. In terms of fantasy points per game the Pack ranks right in the middle of the, well, pack. But that could change Sunday against a Denver Broncos team that couldn’t even hit 100 passing yards in last week’s loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. For the season, the Broncos are 10th in fantasy points given up to defenses this season.

Seattle Seahawks (vs. Arizona Cardinals)

The Seahawks have been a tale of two defenses in 2023. Against the run, the Seahawks have been excellent, ranking fifth in the league at just 79.2 yards per game allowed. Against the pass though, not so much—Seattle ranks 28th in the NFL in that regard. With that said, the Arizona Cardinals have been as Jekyll and Hyde as the Seattle defense this season—Arizona struggled mightily to move the ball last week against the Los Angeles Rams, and over the past three weeks the Redbirds have surrendered the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing defenses.

Las Vegas Raiders (at Chicago Bears)

The Raiders have actually been playing OK defensively, at least in some respects—Las Vegas ranks 11th in total defense and eighth against the pass, and last week against the floundering Patriots the Raiders logged four sacks, a takeaway and a safety on the way to an eighth-place fantasy finish. Now, the Raiders will face a Chicago Bears offense that was struggling before Justin Fields went down. The Bears have given up the third-most fantasy points to defenses this year, and Chicago will likely be trotting out an undrafted rookie quarterback making his first career start Sunday.

Jacksonville Jaguars (at New Orleans Saints)

One of fantasy’s bigger surprises this season defensively is the performance of the Jacksonville Jaguars, who rank sixth for the season in fantasy points. No team in the National Football League has logged more takeaways this year than Jacksonville’s 15, and the Jags are barely allowing over 75 rushing yards per game. The Saints aren’t an especially favorable fantasy matchup, but the team has struggled to score points, ranking 24th in the league in that regard. This isn’t a home-run matchup play, but the Jaguars are rolling, winners of three straight games.

CAVEAT EMPTOR, FOLKS

Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Miami Dolphins)

Last year, the Philadelphia Eagles were one of fantasy football’s most productive defenses—stifling against the run, smothering against the pass and possessors of a historically frightening pass rush. But this year that Eagles defense has backslid—they aren’t getting to the quarterback as often, and the pass defense ranks 20th in the NFL. That’s a scary number heading into a matchup with the Miami Dolphins—the Dolphins are averaging a ridiculous 498.7 yards per game of offense, over 315 yards through the air per contest and over 37 points every time they take the field.

Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow Gary on Twitter @IDPSharks.