Georgia vs TCU 10 Best CFP National Championship Predictions, Prop Bets

Pete Fiutak

Mon, Jan 9, 2023, 12:06 PM·10 min read

What ten Georgia vs TCU College Football Playoff National Championship predictions and prop bets appear to be the best bets and picks?

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10 Best CFP National Championship Prop Bets
No. 5 | No. 4 | No. 3 | No. 2 | No. 1

Would you have been more fired up if this was Georgia or Ohio State vs Michigan? Probably, but TCU keeps on getting disrespected and it keeps on making everyone – hand raised – look silly.

Whether or not this is a classic, or if it’s a strange blowout one way or another, here are the ten best-looking prop bets, predictions, and picks for the Georgia vs TCU College Football Playoff National Championship.

One of the keys here is value. Many of the props and ideas might conflict with others, so consider this a ranking based on potential payoff to go along with the possibilities depending on which way you’re leaning.

The lines are based on BetMGM’s latest props.

– CFN Georgia vs TCU Preview, Prediction
– Experts Picks: National Championship

10. TCU Money Line, Both Teams Will Score 30 or More

LINE: +900

Let’s start with this caveat.

If you believe TCU really does have a shot at winning, then there’s a whole lot of value out there to be had.

Let’s put it this way. If TCU does do this, it’s probably not going to be a 7-3 defensive struggle. It beat Michigan 51-45 in the Fiesta. It got past West Virginia 41-31. The SMU win was 42-34, and the double-OT thriller over Oklahoma State was 43-40.

On the other side, Georgia scored 30 or more 11 times in 14 games. So again, if you’re feeling it for TCU, going with the shootout to go along with the W isn’t a bad play.

And then there’s the opposite of that …

9. Georgia Money Line, Both Teams Will NOT Score 10 or More

LINE: +1100

If you’re into the idea of Georgia winning this, it’s not crazy to think this might be a total wipeout.

The Bulldog defense went bye-bye against Ohio State, and it took half the day off in the SEC Championship win over LSU, but this is still the SEC’s best defense that allowed just 14.8 points per game.

Remember, this is the D that held Oregon to three points. And went on the road to beat South Carolina 48-7. And held Kentucky to six.

The problem is the 10 or more. Georgia totally wiped out Auburn and won 42-10, and it dominated Mississippi State in a 45-19 win. Texas held TCU to 17 points, and that’s the closest anyone came to keeping that O in check. However, again, if you like Georgia, would you be that shocked if it makes a 41-7 statement?

Yeah you would, but that’s why this is at +1100.

Now let’s swing back the other way …

8. Both Teams Will Score 10 or More Points in the 1st Quarter

LINE: (Yes) +1150

It’s +1150 for a reason, but it’s not unreasonable to ask both teams to go off to a hot start.

TCU is known for its comebacks – it put up 148 points in the fourth quarters of games – but it also dominated in the first quarters, too, outscoring teams 148-65. Georgia put up 122 points in the first quarters. The problem is the Dawg D – it allowed just 30 points all year in the first frame.

Again, we’re going for outside-the-box value here. If the two teams start trading haymakers, a 10-10 first quarter might seem like Christmas is still here.

And now, to keep your head on a swivel and make you a tad dizzy before we settle in …

7. Both Team Will Score 10 or More

LINE: (No) +950

To keep hammering this home, I’m looking to value to potentially help any already held beliefs.

I don’t think the Georgia defense is going to come out and shut down the TCU offense to a dead stop, but if you think this is going to be a coronation and total wipeout, +950 is a great idea.

The smarter one is to go with the +180 on NO, both teams won’t hit 20. 38-17 is far more reasonable if you’re not trying to be greedy.

Enough with the wacky fliers. Let’s go with six more realistic options, starting with …

– How good was your bowl? Ranking all the bowl games

6. TCU Wins by 1-to-6 Points

LINE: +750

TCU has made me look ridiculous all season long, so this would hardly be my first time. I think Georgia rolls in this – I’ll get into all that at the end.

But if TCU pulls this off – and as we’ve learned, disrespect the Horned Frogs at your own peril – I highly-doubt it’ll be a some 41-20 whacking. 35-31? Yeah, that’s the most likely spread.

So to repeat this line, if you like TCU to win, this is the best combination of value and likelihood. +750 on a walk-off field goal? That would be so 2022 TCU.

10 Best CFP National Championship Prop Bets
No. 5 | No. 4 | No. 3 | No. 2 | No. 1

NEXT: Georgia vs TCU: Top 5 CFP National Championship Predictions, Best Prop Bets

5. Highest Scoring Quarter: 2nd

LINE: +115

No, the +115 isn’t too sexy, but it makes the most sense with these two.

The fourth quarter isn’t a bad idea considering the way TCU gets everything going late, but the first is the best value at +575. The problem with that is Georgia gets rolling in the second in the biggest games.

As mentioned before, both teams are great in the first frame – TCU put up 148 and Georgia scored 122 in the first – but …

Peach Bowl 2nd Quarter: Ohio State 21, Georgia 17. One quarter, 38 points.

The Dawgs got it all moving in the blowout over Oregon with 21 points in the second, and put up 21 in the SEC Championship win over LSU.

It’s by far Georgia’s highest-scoring quarter – 181 points, with the 4th coming in next at 137 – and the 68 points are the most the defense has given up in any of the quarters.

It’s also the TCU defense’s worst quarter, allowing 106 on the year with the 98 in the fourth coming up next.

10 Best CFP National Championship Prop Bets
6-10 | No. 4 | No. 3 | No. 2 | No. 1

NEXT: College Football Playoff National Championship Prop Bets: TCU first touchdown scored

4. TCU First Touchdown Scored

LINE: +160

I always like this type of prop because you have an honest shot of something strange happening and landing a good deal.

The value in last year’s national championship was Alabama +100 to score the first touchdown, and neither team was able to get into the end zone until Zamir White did it for Georgia with just over a minute to play in the third – both teams traded field goals in the first half.

Georgia was -145 to score the first TD in last year’s game – that was no fun. -250 in this is even worse.

It’s hardly a 50/50 shot – there’s a reason it’s +160 – but let’s say the first TCU drive works and the coaching staff’s gameplan hits. Georgia can still win in a rout after getting down 7-0.

This also goes hand-in-hand with another high-value idea that’s not all that insane …

10 Best CFP National Championship Prop Bets
6-10 | No. 5 | No. 3 | No. 2 | No. 1

NEXT: College Football Playoff National Championship Prop Bets: Tie at halftime, Georgia wins the game

3. Tied at half, Georgia wins the game

LINE: +1600

The flip of this is even better at +1000 with Georgia up at halftime and TCU winning, but I can’t get there. I’m too stuck on Georgia winning this rather easily.

Georgia being up at the half and then winning is -185. That’s not the content you’re here for.

Alabama was up 9-6 at halftime of last year’s national championship and the Dawgs won. TCU being up after 30 and losing after 60 is at +650 – that’s a tremendous idea if you think the Bulldogs will be a bit jittery like Michigan was.

But I’m taking the home run cut here.

I’ll stick with the idea that Georgia wins big, but this could certainly be a tied game at halftime. I’m trying to thread the needle by going after the +1600, but at least I’m not going wild with halftime tie/TCU win at +2500.

Okay, enough is enough. Here’s what I believe is going to happen …

10 Best CFP National Championship Prop Bets
6-10 | No. 5 | No. 4 | No. 2 | No. 1

NEXT: College Football Playoff National Championship: Georgia Money Line, Over on 60.5

2. Georgia Money Line and Over 60.5

LINE: +100

It’s boring without the high-priced value, but there’s nothing wrong with taking the win if it’s there.

The updated line as you’re reading this is Georgia -13 and the point total at 63.5. Of no value is Georgia on the Money Line – hovering between -450 and -570 depending on where you’re looking.

However, I’m in on Georgia winning – that’s the easy part. If TCU pulls this off, great for college football, I’ll tip my cap, and it’s on to the NFL Playoff. If the Dawgs win, then it’s just a question of where that total comes in.

If you can get this Money Line/60.5 combination, that’s not bad.

TCU will score a bit. It might not roll up 50 points, but it should be good for a few points here and there – to be nice about it. Georgia should take care of at least 35 – more like 40ish – but itself.

This all feeds into …

10 Best CFP National Championship Prop Bets
6-10 | No. 5 | No. 4 | No. 3 | No. 1

NEXT: Georgia wins by 19-24

1. Georgia wins by 19-24

LINE: +600

And I really like the idea of going bigger at +750 for Georgia winning by 25-to-30.

I hope I’m wrong. I hope this is a close game that comes down to a late drive with one team hitting the big plays needed to pull it off. I cheer for classic games.

Again, as I mentioned before, TCU has made me look silly all year. I really do think Georgia is going to be a methodical machine, especially in the second half.

I do think TCU will score enough to make the Dawgs keep pressing, but this should be a fight for about 40 minutes before the defending national champs take over with one good scoring drive, a big defensive play leading to another score, and then the game starts to slip away.

The line is Georgia -12.5, so the safer play is Georgia by 13-to-18 at +450. Instead, this might be one of those games that’s better than the final score will indicate.

However this all turns out, good luck.