Games are finished for the Lightning, but hard decisions still remain

SUNRISE — They remained on the ice not in celebration, but out of obligation.

One after another, the Lightning lined up to congratulate Florida players following a 6-1 loss in Game 5 that ended another season prematurely. When the niceties were completed, Andrei Vasilevskiy tossed his stick to a Lightning fan, Steven Stamkos stood in front of the bench to greet each player skating off the ice and then walked up the tunnel where he disappeared into an uncertain future.

Where Stamkos and this franchise eventually emerge is anyone’s guess.

It’s worth asking, after consecutive first-round exits, whether the Lightning need a new direction. Not a teardown, not a rebuild. Just a reimagining of a roster that has tried to hang on to its identity despite losing so many of the pieces that once made it the envy of the NHL.

For the better part of two years, the Lightning have been a good team.

Which would be a compliment if they had not been a great team for so long.

“Maybe this wasn’t the team we’ve had in the past, but that didn’t creep into this room,” Stamkos said later. “We played hard, we showed it was a tight series but, you know, we just didn’t have that extra — whatever you want to call it — come playoff time to get some of those wins in close games.”

The evidence suggests the Lightning are a few pieces shy of elite. And the problem is there is no easy route to finding those pieces since their farm system has been largely depleted and their salary cap is as stretched out as your favorite Lightning T-shirt.

We often talk about the championship core — Stamkos, Vasilevskiy, Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Anthony Cirelli, Mikhail Sergachev, Erik Cernak — but that group comes at a substantial cost.

Tampa Bay’s top eight players accounted for $64.8 million of the salary cap. No other team in the league is that top heavy with salaries. It’s obviously not a bad thing to have a lot of players deserving of big paychecks, but it’s problematic when trying to build a deep roster.

That was apparent against Florida.

The Panthers had more balance throughout the lineup and were the better team in 5-on-5 situations almost the entire series.

Mostly, the Panthers made the kind of clutch plays on both sides of the ice that used to be routine for the Lightning.

“I know how fortunate our teams have been when we did win (in the playoffs),” Lightning coach Jon Cooper said. “But you do make your own breaks. And we, in this series, had our opportunities. History is going to say this series was 4-1 but you know in some big moments where we could have capitalized in some situations, we didn’t and they did. And that was the difference in the series.”

While dozens of decisions must be made in the coming months, they all flow from the same question:

What to do with Stamkos, who is at the end of his contract?

Trade deadline acquisitions Matt Dumba and Anthony Duclair will head to free agency along with a handful of role players — Tyler Motte, Haydn Fleury and Mitchell Chaffee among them — but the continuing salary cap woes mean the contract offer for Stamkos affects everything that follows.

And then, one year from now, the Lightning will face the same decision with Hedman.

So do you double down on your two franchise icons and continue trying to win with the same core? Or is it time to consider other pathways back to the Stanley Cup final?

“A lot of pride in these guys in our locker room,” Cirelli said. “Down the stretch there, late in the year there, we were battling and grinding to get into the playoffs.”

It’s true, the Lightning are one of four teams (Boston, Colorado, Toronto) to have made the playoffs seven consecutive seasons. And they’re the only team with a pair of Stanley Cup titles during that span.

And, if you are so inclined, you can rationalize away Tampa Bay’s troubles in 2023-24.

Point out, for instance, that Vasilevskiy missed the first month of the season and took some time to feel comfortable again after back surgery. Point out Sergachev’s season of injuries. Point out the Lightning were either tied or trailing by a single goal in the third period of every game against Florida. Point out the Lightning had two goals disallowed within 25 minutes of each other at critical juncture in Game 5.

But, in the end, the Lightning are 3-8 in the first round of the past two postseasons.

Does that mean it is time for a reckoning with this group?

“When you win in the playoffs, you need some bounces, you need some calls,” Stamkos said. “You need a lot of things to go right.”

It didn’t go right for the Lightning this year. Or last year.

Is that just misfortune, or a warning sign?

John Romano can be reached at jromano@tampabay.com. Follow @romano_tbtimes.

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