The Funnel Defense Report: Week 12
Below is a look at the league’s most extreme run funnel and pass funnel defenses through Week 11 — teams being consistently attacked on the ground or through the air regardless of game script.
Having an understanding of which defenses are being bludgeoned via the rush or pass should help us identify matchups that may be better than we think in Week 12.
Run Funnel Defenses
The red birds are becoming a recurring theme in this space, and for good reason: Arizona has turned into one of the NFL’s most reliable run funnel defenses over the past couple months. Headed into Week 12, only the Jets, Colts, Packers, and Browns are more extreme run funnels. Narrow that down to the past month and only the Jets are a more pronounced run funnel than the Cardinals.
The Cardinals hardly ever shut down a rush. They have the league’s fifth lowest stuff rate and the fifth highest yards before contact per rush attempt. Only Denver has allowed a higher rushing success rate than the Cardinals through Week 11. This is a long, data-centric way of saying the Cards can and have been attacked via the ground game.
What it means for Week 12: The return of Kyren Williams from the lowest high ankle sprain in recorded history should be a massive boon for those who rostered him in fantasy. Williams operated as a workhorse in the LA offense before his Week 6 injury; he had at least 16 touches in five of his six games. What’s more, the Rams have tilted heavily toward the run of late as Matthew Stafford’s struggles have persisted. The Rams have been below their expected drop back rate in four of their past five games. Against Seattle in Week 11, they were an eye-opening 11 percent below their expected drop back rate. My eyes: They are wide open.
There’s little reason to worry about anyone cutting into Kyren’s lead-back duties in Week 12. The team released Darrell Henderson the second Kyren was removed from IR and Royce Freeman has been atrocious during his time as LA’s committee back.
Cleveland Browns
Probably you knew the Browns would be highlighted here after reading that they remain a reliable run funnel defense. Well, here they are.
Defensive metrics show Cleveland’s rush defense isn’t all that bad. In most categories, they’re in the top half of the league. Their one weak spot is tackling. No team allows a higher rate of missed tackles per rush than the Browns. That — along with the sheer terror of facing Myles Garrett and the team’s pass rush — has kept the Browns in the run funnel category all season.
What it means for Week 12: The Broncos, after rightfully making Russell Wilson a game manager, are now 27th in pass rate over expected. They are under their expected drop back rate in four of their past five outings.
Javonte Williams has functioned as the team’s unquestioned lead back for some time now. Running behind an offensive line that Pro Football Focus grades as the league’s fifth best run blocking unit, Williams has the NFL’s fourth most carries (74) since Week 7. That the Broncos abandoned the rush last week against the Vikings shouldn’t make you fret. Williams still logged 11 of the team’s 13 running back rush attempts.
Look for the Broncos to establish the run like the franchise’s existence depends on it in what should be a hideous, low-scoring affair between Denver and Cleveland.
Pass Funnel Defenses
The fourth most pronounced pass funnel defense on the season, the Jaguars have forced opponents time and again to give up all hope of establishing the run.
Jacksonville’s defense sports the league’s fourth highest rushing stuff rate, the seventh lowest rate of missed tackles per rush, and the league’s lowest rushing success rate. They have, in short, been nails against the run. It’s forced even the team’s run heaviest teams to revert to the pass, as we saw in Week 10 when the Niners were 6 percent above their expected drop back rate against the Jaguars. The hopelessly run-heavy Steelers were 11 percent above their expected drop back rate against Jacksonville in Week 8 — a stat that made me lightheaded.
What it means for Week 12: CJ Stroud and the balanced (sometimes run first) Houston offense should, by all accounts, be allowed to cook this week. Yes, Devin Singletary has been a revelation, and yes, the Texans very much want to run the ball for the sake of running the ball. But this matchup begs for a pass-heavy approach.
It’s not that Stroud has lacked raw passing volume in recent weeks. He’s averaged nearly 39 attempts over the Texans’ past three games. A true pass-first approach against a clear pass funnel defense could give us 40-plus drop backs for the spectacular rookie — something like we saw against Tampa in Week 9, when the Texans were 9 percent over their expected drop back rate and Stroud roasted the Bucs for 470 yards and five touchdowns.
An all-out passing attack boosts the prospects of every Houston pass catcher, including secondary and tertiary options like Dalton Schultz and Noah Brown. Find a way to jam your Texans into your fantasy lineup this week.
Regular readers of this funnel-loving column already know the Tampa defense is among the most reliable pass funnels in the NFL. The reason isn’t complicated: The Bucs snuff out the run at every turn. Even the NFL’s best rush offenses haven’t been able to figure it out against Tampa’s stout front seven.
No team allows a lower EPA per rush than the Bucs and only five teams give up a lower yards after contact per rush than Tampa. Suffice it to say, they’re good.
What it means for Week 12: The Colts have made every effort to hide the wild and wooly Gardner Minshew with an unrelentingly run heavy approach of late. With the league’s third lowest pass rate over expected, they have been 7 percent below their expected drop back rate over the past four weeks. The goal, it seems, is to base the offense around Jonathan Taylor.
That probably won’t work against the Bucs if the Colts want to score points and try to win the game. Again — and I can hardly emphasize this enough — no one establishes it against the Bucs. It just doesn’t happen. Minshew, I think, will be forced to drop back, even with all the nerve wracking variance that brings to the Indy offense. Such an approach should create better-than-expected volume for Michael Pittman and Josh Downs this week.
While Pittman continues to dominate air yards and target shares, Downs’ matchup can’t be overlooked: Tampa allows the seventh highest target share to opposing slot receivers. Downs’ PPR scamminess could be at an all-time high in Week 12.
The Eagles are the league’s second most pronounced pass funnel on the season and over the past month. Every Philly opponent deploys a pass-first approach.
What it means for Week 12: Obviously you’re starting Stefon Diggs and Dalton Kincaid. I only want to point out that the Eagles have given up the NFL’s second highest target share to opposing slot pass catchers, making this a spectacular spot for Kincaid and Khalil Shakir, who went off in Week 11 against the Jets. Shakir has run 76 percent of his routes from the slot in 2023. He should be in PPR lineups in Week 12.
