The Funnel Defense Report: Week 10
Below is a look at the league’s most extreme run funnel and pass funnel defenses through Week 9 — teams being consistently attacked on the ground or through the air regardless of game script.
Having an understanding of which defenses are being bludgeoned via the rush or pass should help us identify matchups that may be better than we think in Week 10.
Run Funnel Defenses
If the Kirk Cousins-led Vikings are balanced against your defense, you might be a run funnel. You might not believe it but this was a Jeff Foxworthy outtake from 1996.
Now that I’ve alienated the zoomers, I’ll tell you Green Bay is the NFL’s fifth most extreme run funnel through Week 9. The aforementioned Vikings were a mere 1 percent over their expected pass rate against the Packers in Week 8, while the Lions in Week 4 were 13 percent below their expected rate, or 10 percent lower than their season-long rate. The Broncos, Raiders, and Rams were also below their expected drop back rates against the Pack.
What this means for Week 10: Barring some kind of meltdown, I think Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren could be exceedingly useful for fantasy purposes against Green Bay this week. The Steelers, 20th in pass rate over expected this season, have gotten back to boring, backward, old-school Steelers football in recent weeks. Pittsburgh has been under its expected drop back rate in four of the past five weeks. Mike Tomlin wants very much to establish it like it’s 1979. He’ll have every chance to do that against the down-bad Packers.
Harris has been the team’s nominal lead back over the past four games, seeing a 56 percent snap share (Warren has a 46 percent snap share over that stretch) and getting 63 touches to 42 for Warren. Harris, quite importantly, has seven inside-the-ten touches while Warren has just one over those four games. Warren can be fantasy viable with limited touches. This might finally be a week where Harris can avoid being a disaster with pure, unadulterated rush volume.
The Colts enter Week 10 as the league’s second most extreme run funnel defense, trailing only the Browns, whose terrifying pass rush forces teams to keep it on the ground.
Consistently run-first attacks against Indy have led to plenty of rush volume: Only the Raiders and Cardinals have seen more rushing attempts against them in 2023. And only six teams are allowing a higher rushing success rate than the run-funnel horseshoes.
The always-balanced Saints offense turned into the 1985 Bears in Week 8 against the Colts, sporting a drop back rate 14 percent below expected. The Browns were -6 percent against the Colts in Week 7 and the Jaguars were -1 percent against Indianapolis in Week 6. You get the idea.
What it means for Week 10: Since Week 6, the Patriots backfield has been a little less split than it was in September. Rhamondre Stevenson, who finally ripped off a big play against Washington in Week 9, has a 56-37 touch advantage over Ezekiel Elliott over the past four games. Stevenson has 21 high value touches (green zone touches plus catches) to just ten for Zeke over that span. Stevenson, and to a lesser extent, Elliott, could see decent rush volume against the Colts if game script doesn’t get crazy in this week’s overseas matchup.
Looking for more fantasy football content? Rotoworld has you covered. Watch Fantasy Football Happy Hour with Matthew Berry weekdays at noon ET LIVE on Peacock and the Rotoworld Football Show on Mondays, Tuesdays and Thursdays wherever you get your podcasts.
Pass Funnel Defenses
The Niners, after being neither a pass nor run funnel in the season’s early going, has become a clear-cut pass funnel over the past six weeks. Only the Eagles are a more extreme pass funnel this season.
The Niners becoming a pass funnel has nothing to do with a stout rush defense. San Francisco has been quite bad against opposing runners in 2023, allowing the sixth highest rush EPA and the league’s fourth lowest stuff rate. Only nine defenses are giving up more yards after contact per rushing attempt.
San Francisco opponents have consistently leaned heavily on the pass though. The Bengals in Week 8 were 7 percent over their expected drop back rate against the 49ers and the Vikings were 13 percent of their expected drop back rate in Week 7. Go back to Week 2 and the Rams were 12 percent over their expected drop back rate against Kyle Shanahan’s defense.
What it means for Week 10: The Jaguars, who have operated a balanced offense throughout the 2023 season, could see an uptick in passing volume assuming a (somewhat) neutral game script. It would represent a departure for Jacksonville’s offense, which has just two truly pass-heavy games this season.
Who this benefits in the Jaguars offense is up for debate. They have the tenth lowest target share to wideouts this season and the fifth highest tight end target share. We’ve seen both Calvin Ridley and Christian Kirk have frustrating lulls in their production because of the team’s target distribution.
Evan Engram, you may have noticed, has become a target vacuum of late. He leads the Jaguars on the season with a 24 percent targets per route run; over the past three games, that rate has ballooned to 28 percent. Running all the routes and seeing a bunch of intermediate looks from Trevor Lawrence, I think Engram could be the main beneficiary of a pass-first approach in Week 10 against the pass funnel Niners.
Dan Campbell’s kneecap eaters have been a pass funnel from the jump this season. Almost every team has all but abandoned the run when facing the Lions, including the Ravens in Week 7 (12 percent over expected drop back rate), the Bucs in Week 6 (11 percent over), and the run-first Packers in Week 4 (4 percent over). Detroit ranks third in rush yards after contact per attempt. In short, they’re good against the rush.
What it means for Week 10: It’s not like a pass-heavy game script will be new territory for Justin Herbert and the Bolts. LA has the NFL’s seventh highest pass rate over expected through Week 9. They’ve been over their expected drop back rate in six of eight games. It’ll be more of the same in Week 10 against Detroit, perhaps to a more extreme degree.
Probably this means an all-but-guaranteed dozen targets for Keenan Allen and a hefty target load for Austin Ekeler and, maybe, Quentin Johnston, the struggling rookie who has a 13 percent target share and a 30 percent air yards share over LA's past two games. The Chargers have the league’s fourth highest wide receiver target share, for what that’s worth. A massively pass-heavy offense could even produce some looks for tertiary options like Gerald Everett.
The Bengals aren’t especially great against the rush, but since Joe Burrow finally got healthy and made the Cincy offense go brrrrrr again, Bengals opponents have gone wildly pass heavy.
Only the Eagles are a more extreme pass funnel defense over the past month. On the season, the Bengals are the league’s sixth most extreme pass funnel.
What it means for Week 10: C.J. Stroud and the Texans will likely have no choice but to air it out against the Bengals a week after mercifully abandoning their hideous excuse for a rushing attack and letting Stroud cook. Everything points toward a metric ton of drop backs for Stroud: The Texans are big underdogs, the Bengals should have their way with a beatable Houston secondary, and the Texans have (maybe) realized the strength of their team lies in their superstar rookie QB and his pass catchers.
One matchup note: Cincinnati is allowing the third highest target share to pass catchers lining up in the slot. We could see another hefty stat line for Dalton Schultz and/or Noah Brown.
