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FSU football predictions: Who do experts pick to win Duke vs. Florida State game?

dan rorabaugh, tallahassee democrat
·4 min read

The No. 4 Florida State football team faces a big test Saturday night when it welcomes the No. 17 Duke Blue Devils.

FSU (6-0, 4-0 in ACC) will play its third straight home game and third game against a ranked opponent this season. Jordan Travis, Johnny Wilson and company took care of then-No. 5 LSU in the season opener in Orlando, then edged then-No. 23 Clemson in overtime on the road. Last week, the Seminoles blew out Syracuse 41-3 behind a big day from Keon Coleman.

Duke (5-1, 2-0) is hoping quarterback Riley Leonard can play against FSU. He injured his ankle late in the Blue Devils' only loss Sept. 30 vs. Notre Dame. Henry Belin IV started last week against North Carolina State, going just 4 of 12 for 107 yards, two touchdowns and an interception in the 24-3 win.

Will Duke have enough to stun FSU? Here's a look at what college football experts predict will happen:

ESPN College GameDay: FSU wins

Desmond Howard, Pat McAfee, Lee Corso and guest picker C.J. Stroud all picked the Seminoles to win, though they said to expect a game closer than expected. Kirk Herbstreit did not make a pick because he will be on the call.

Chris Hummer, 247 Sports: FSU 34-21

"It’s too bad Riley Leonard’s injury status hangs over this game. Had he been healthy – and there’s a small chance he could get ready for this weekend – this is a much different conversation. As it is, the Blue Devils enter this game somewhat hobbled on offense. That’s not a good place to be against Florida State, a team that’s 21-0 all time against Duke. Even without Leonard, though, I think there’s value with Duke against the spread. The Blue Devils have an elite defense at 11th nationally in yards allowed per play, and I think they can limit FSU enough to cover."

Bill Bender, Sporting News: FSU 31-21

"Will Riley Leonard return? That is the question for a Blue Devils' team that has been a super dog under second-year coach Mike Elko. Duke is 6-2 ATS as an underdog, and that includes a 3-1 ATS record as a road underdog. None of Elko's losses are by double digits. This line could drop more before kickoff, which would give some value to the home team. Florida State is 19-0 all time in this series. A Blue Devils' upset here would be shocking."

Bruce Feldman, The Athletic: FSU 35-27

"The Noles have a lethal offense, but Mike Elko’s guys will slow them down enough to keep this a game for four quarters — though they won’t have enough to pull out another big upset."

Our FSU-Duke prediction: Can Florida State football remain unbeaten?

Brad Crawford, 247 Sports: FSU 28-10

"This chess match between Mike Elko and Mike Norvell centered around the status of Duke quarterback Riley Leonard this week is something to keep an eye on. Elko said Monday his best player was "day to day" with a high ankle sprain, while Norvell said the Seminoles are preparing to face the Blue Devils with QB1 a full go. If you're playing this game, at least wait until more information comes out prior to kickoff. I don't think Leonard will be 100% even if he does play, so that leads to a FSU cover."

College Football Power Index prediction model, SI.com: FSU win by 10

"By taking the index's projections for how much each team should win by against 'average opponents,' and taking the difference between the two numbers, the computer predicts Florida State will defeat Duke by 9.9 points, or by rounding up, by 10 points in the game."

The Athletic staff: FSU covers

Three of the four Athletic betting experts picked Florida State: Dan Santaromita, Austin Mock and Chris Vannini. Ari Wasserman picked Duke to cover the 14.5-point spread.

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FSU vs. Duke betting odds

Odds courtesy of BetMGM as of Thursday, October 19.

  • Spread: FSU (-14.5)

  • Over/under: 49.5

  • Moneyline: Duke +450, FSU -650

How to watch FSU football vs. Duke

Chris Fowler will be the play-by-play announcer with Kirk Herbstreit as analyst and Holly Rowe as sideline reporter. Streaming options include fuboTV, which offers a free trial to potential subscribers.

This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: Florida State vs Duke predictions: Football experts make their picks