Frontrunner no more. New poll shows Kari Lake has gone stagnant
Kari Lake, Republican frontrunner in the governor’s race, is the frontrunner no more.
After spending more than a million dollars on her campaign, snagging Donald Trump’s endorsement and grabbing all of the headlines in the race, it appears this particular Lake has gone stagnant.
She’s dropped seven points since November, according to a new poll of registered Republicans by OH Predictive Insights.
The drop in support isn’t steep, given the poll’s 5.7% margin of error. But the fact that Lake isn’t attracting any new Republican support?
Maybe a Trump endorsement isn’t what it used to be.
There may be a limit to Kari Lake's appeal
Lake jumped into the race last June with a bellyful of anger, raging her way right to the top of the heap, saying all the right things to win over hard right Republicans.
Attack the media? Check.
Embrace conspiracy theories about election fraud? Check.
Rail about the border/masks/teachers? Check, check, check.
Add in already strong name ID, from her two decades as a news anchor, and it didn’t take long for Trump to endorse her, making her the candidate to beat in the Republican primary.
But some longtime operators in GOP circles have wondered if there’s a limit to Lake’s appeal.
“She’s got a celing, and my sense is that it will ultimately end up somewhere in the 20s,” longtime Republican consultant Chris Baker told me. “Right now, the most extreme in the GOP get all the attention. It’s distorting.”
She spent on food, not voter outreach
This poll underscores that point.
Lake’s support dropped from 28% in November to 21% in OH Predictive Insight’s January poll. Support for Salmon, meanwhile, rose from 11% to 17%.
“Lake has had great fundraising, key political endorsements and a good amount of earned media,” pollster Mike Noble told me. “However, it’s not translating into an increase of support.”
None of the other candidates hit double digits in the poll, though I’d watch for Karrin Taylor Robson, with her yacht-load of cash, to come on strong.
Robson has nearly $3 million in the bank to make her case. By contrast, Lake has burned through her money – spending it on food, travel and campaign events rather than voter outreach – and has just $375,000 left.
Salmon has $491,000 in the bank.
Has this Lake sprung an early leak?
Money on hand is key as the race goes nasty. (And, oh yes, it will.)
In all, the poll found 46% of Republican voters haven’t yet decided who they will support.
Add in those all-important independent voters, who weren’t part of the poll but will certainly play a large role in the election, and this Lake may have sprung an early leak.
The poll of 302 Republican voters was conducted via an online panel Jan. 11-13.
A similar sized poll of Democrats saw Katie Hobbs with a commanding lead of 46%. Neither Marco Lopez nor Aaron Lieberman reached double digits.
Reach Roberts at laurie.roberts@arizonarepublic.com. Follow her on Twitter at @LaurieRoberts.
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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Kari Lake just lost her GOP frontrunner status for Arizona governor
