Friday 5: What if these events happened differently?

As one of the sport’s greatest driver/crew chief combinations nears selection to the NASCAR Hall of Fame, it’s easy to forget how close the two men came to being separated.

Jimmie Johnson and crew chief Chad Knaus had yet to win any of their seven Cup titles together before a meeting with car owner Rick Hendrick in 2005 that determined their future.

What if Hendrick had decided to split the pair? How might that have changed NASCAR? If Johnson hadn’t won many or all of those championships, who would have?

There are many moments from the past 25 years — some big, some that didn’t seem as big at the time — that if things had been different could have dramatically altered NASCAR.

Here are five to ponder:

1. Milk and cookies

From 2002-05, Johnson and Knaus won 18 races, including three Coca-Cola 600s and a Southern 500 but had fallen short of a title. Twice they finished second in the points, losing the 2003 championship to Matt Kenseth and the 2004 crown to Kurt Busch by eight points.

Johnson finished fifth in 2005 — the only driver to place in the top five each year from 2002-05 — but the relationship with Knaus was frayed.

Hendrick sat both down after the 2005 season.

“The meeting was supposed to be how we split the guys up and which team they were going to go to,” Hendrick said in 2008.

Johnson and Knaus likely would have had success on their own, but it’s hard to imagine either topping what they’ve done together. They won a record five consecutive championships and claimed titles with different styles of cars and point systems.

What if Hendrick had put Knaus with Kyle Busch? He had completed his rookie year in 2005. How might a pairing of Busch and Knaus done? Would Busch have remained at Hendrick instead of leaving for Joe Gibbs Racing — providing a spot for Dale Earnhardt Jr. to arrive in 2008? Or what if Hendrick paired Knaus with Jeff Gordon? Would Gordon have won any more crowns?

Hendrick’s meeting with Johnson and Knaus is known as the milk and cookies meeting because of the tactic Hendrick used that saved a partnership and changed the sport.

“I’ve seen this happen many times with drivers and crew chiefs,” Hendrick said in 2008. “They start to kind of irritate each other and the communication goes away. One day they love each other, and one day they hate each other. It was getting to the point where Chad and Jimmie were having more bad days than good days. But then on a good day it was almost a love fest.

“I called them into my office and we had some of these plates that had Mickey Mouse ears and some cookies and milk and said, ‘If we’re going to act like kids, we’re going to have cookies and milk, and we’ll have some down time where we can talk about what you don’t like about each other’ because they really weren’t opening up.

“You know, usually, you can’t fix those deals, but we talked about it, the communication between the two and what irritated them, and I’m really glad they both made steps to fix it because it takes both people to want to make it work.”

When Hall of Fame voters gather Aug. 2 in Charlotte, there’s a good chance that both Johnson and Knaus will be selected to the Class of 2024.

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2. An overheard conversation

Denny Hamlin’s next Cup victory will be his 50th and make him one of 15 drivers in NASCAR’s history to win as many races.

Hamlin will be among the favorites Sunday at Pocono Raceway (2:30 p.m. ET on USA Network). The future Hall of Famer has six Pocono victories, tying him with Jeff Gordon for the most all-time at the track.

But Hamlin, a three-time Daytona 500 winner, might not have gotten his chance in Cup had events happened differently one night at a Virginia short track. As he waited to check in for a Late Model event, he was overheard telling a friend that the race would be his last because his family could no longer support his efforts.

Team owner Jim Dean heard the conversation and told Hamlin to see him after the race. That led to a partnership between the two. Hamlin won more than two dozen races with Dean.

At the end of the season, Joe Gibbs Racing planned to audition some Late Model drivers. The team used Hamlin’s equipment that he was looking to sell.

Hamlin, not one of the drivers selected to audition, set the cars up for the test at Hickory Motor Speedway. His lap times impressed those at the test, eventually leading to an opportunity in what is the Xfinity Series with the team. An eighth-place finish at Darlington in his only series start in 2004 led a to full-time series ride in 2005 and a tryout later that year in a Cup car.

Hamlin got the Cup ride in 2006. He finished third in the points as a rookie and has gone to place in the top four in points seven times, including three of the last four seasons.

Hamlin also has become a key figure behind the scenes with drivers and series officials, pushing for ways to enhance the racing. He brought Michael Jordan to the sport and joined him as co-owner of 23XI Racing. Hamlin’s podcast gives him a bigger platform to be a catalyst for change in the sport.

If his conversation that one night hadn’t been overheard, what might Hamlin be doing these days?

“I would just be working at my dad’s trailer shop, installing trailers and hitches,” Hamlin said.

“I’m one of the great success stories, for sure, to make it to this point. There’s countless others that are very, very good, that I truly believe — because I drive against them — that they’ve got far more talent than what I’ve been blessed with.

“I was very lucky to be in the position that I was. When I got an opportunity, I did make the best of it.”

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3. Mark Martin’s decision

The plan was for Mark Martin to run a full-time season in 2009 with Hendrick Motorsports and go to a part-time schedule in 2010, allowing the organization to run Brad Keselowski in Cup.

Everything seemed to be perfect early in 2009 when Martin won at Phoenix and Keselowski, driving for James Finch in a part-time ride, won at Talladega the following week.

But things changed.

Martin decided he wanted to continue to run full-time beyond the 2009 season. With no seat available at Hendrick Motorsports, Keselowski moved to Team Penske after the season, winning what is now the Xfinity Series title in 2010 and the Cup crown in 2012.

But what if Martin had decided to run only a partial schedule in 2010, paving the way for Keselowski at Hendrick Motorsports?

Would Keselowski have won more titles there as a teammate to Jimmie Johnson, Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr.? If so, would Keselowski had remained there through the end of his driving career instead of being a part owner of what is now RFK Racing?

And what of Team Penske? Keselowski delivered the organization’s first NASCAR titles and helped strengthen the organization. He was instrumental in Penske hiring Joey Logano after Logano lost his ride at Joe Gibbs Racing.

Also, Keselowski started a Truck team that provided a training ground for Ford developmental drivers. Those who raced for Keselowski’s team included future Penske drivers Ryan Blaney and Austin Cindric, along with Tyler Reddick, Chase Briscoe, Daniel Hemric and Parker Kligerman. How might their career paths been different?

“I think that decision (by Martin) had a significant trickle-down effect,” Keselowski said. “Not just for Mark, not just for me, but for probably hundreds, if not thousands, of people and dynamics of teams and where people went and how things shook out.

“With reflection, kind of an epic decision that set off a series of dominoes. … It is a good question to ponder what things would look like had things gone differently.”

4. A sad day in Daytona

Perhaps no “what if” moment in the last 25 years in NASCAR is bigger than the death of Dale Earnhardt on the last lap of the 2001 Daytona 500.

Few words in the sport are as haunting as when Mike Helton, then president of NASCAR, saying in a press conference that day: “We’ve lost Dale Earnhardt.”

Earnhardt’s passing came after a 2000 season that saw Adam Petty, Kenny Irwin Jr. and Tony Roper lose their lives in separate accidents. NASCAR’s safety efforts were starting to move forward after those fatalities, but the death of Earnhardt accelerated change in the sport.

NASCAR joined the Indianapolis Motor Speedway’s project on softer walls, leading to the SAFER barrier. Head-and-neck restraints became mandatory. Changes to the car — including the driver’s area — were made over time. The NASCAR R&D Center was built.

NASCAR’s safety efforts continue to be vigilant. No driver in any of the sport’s three national series has perished in an incident since Earnhardt’s crash.

But what might have been for Earnhardt? Kevin Harvick finished ninth in points with Earnhardt’s team despite not running in that Daytona 500. It’s easy to think that Earnhardt might have won his record-breaking eighth Cup championship that season.

Beyond his driving career, what would have happened with Dale Earnhardt Inc.? Would that have remained Dale Earnhardt Jr.’s home for his entire driving career? Would that be a team that rivals Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing even today?

“What would our sport look like today?” Joey Logano said, pondering a NASCAR with Earnhardt still a part of it.

“I don’t know. I don’t know. I’m pretty sure it would be better with Earnhardt around, for sure.”

5. A debris caution that changes everything

After finishing runner-up in the championship twice, which included losing by a tiebreaker to Tony Stewart in 2011, Carl Edwards was poised to win his first Cup title in 2016.

Edwards was in position to win the championship at Homestead-Miami Speedway when a caution was called with 15 laps to go. Dylan Lupton hit the wall but continued to pit road.

Edwards was second — but first among the four title contenders entering pit road — and exited the same way.

Joey Logano, a title contender, restarted behind Edwards on the inside lane. After crossing the start/finish line, Logano went low. Edwards moved to block. They hit. The contact sent Edwards nose-first into the inside wall, ending his race and title hopes. Logano’s car was damaged.

Jimmie Johnson, who had been the weakest of the four title contenders in the race went on to win to claim his record-tying seventh title.

Less than two months later, Edwards announced his retirement from NASCAR at age 37.

What might have happened had that caution not been called and Edwards won that championship instead of Johnson? Would Edwards have continued? How many championships could he have won before he retired?

“The one that haunts me to this day, and there is nothing even close, is Homestead 2016 and Carl Edwards’ championship loss,” David Wilson, president of Toyota Racing Development told The Athletic in 2022. “That was his championship, he was going to win the championship, but there was a bulls—t caution that was thrown at the end of that race because the race more or less had been decided.”