Forget the Kentucky Derby tout sheets. Here's who the sharps are picking

LAS VEGAS — Even before we can pay for our horse racing admission, we’re confronted by those dispensing tout sheets at the entry way.

Even before reporting on sports betting became my livelihood, the gut feel was to bypass that information, and upon further reporting in the field, one sharp bettor I spoke to confirmed my hunch.

“Why would someone possessing information about who’s going to win give it away for free?”

Exactly.

So as we head to Saturday’s Kentucky Derby, let’s disregard the tout services and confer with the wisest handicappers we know, gentlemen who keep their research and analysis to themselves – unless pressed by their reporter friend.

My own prevailing theory when betting rich fields like the Derby, which is set to start at 6:57 p.m. Saturday on NBC, is to pursue the value connected to the non-favorites given the depth of talent and the traffic that can alter the best of race strategies.

This esteemed panel assembled here has expressed a similar sentiment, finding reason to mostly avoid 3/1 favorite Zandon in favor of contenders who can produce a more lucrative payoff.

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OPINION: Five storylines to watch at the 148th Kentucky Derby

Let’s start, however, with a Zandon supporter.

“Big” Dave Samarzich, an occasional occupant of the luxurious Eddie Logan Suite for VIPs at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California, is an expert player who chats with a slew of horse racing insiders before laying down his wagers.

The amount of cash that people take home from betting is their own business, but one of my favorite tales is “Big D” stuffing his sweat-pant pockets with thousands in cash and shoving in a half-dozen complementary Snickers bars in there for good measure as he exited the suite one day.

“They got the favorite wrong. Epicenter (the 7/2 second choice) should be the favorite,” Samarzich said.

His reasoning is pinned to the belief that trainer Steve Asmussen, who is famously 0-for-23 in the Derby, has a remarkable horse whose sire, Giant’s Causeway “could run all day.” Epicenter has won four of six races.

Samarzich expects Santa Anita Derby runner-up Messier to go to the lead with Epicenter, but he foresees Santa Anita Derby winner Taiba (12/1) as the more formidable choice than 8/1 Messier, with three-time Derby winning jockey John Velazquez aboard.

“I’m going to be watching everything (pre-race) and if the track’s sloppy (with Friday thundershowers forecasted to yield by Saturday morning), then I’m going with Taiba to win,” Samarzich said. “Its sire, Gun Runner, could run in the mud all day.”

If conditions are less saturated, Samarzich expects Epicenter to “chew up” Messier.

“When these horses expend so much energy going head to head, it takes a lot out of them and they wind up losing that punch at the end,” he said. “Zandon is the real deal and ran huge to win the Blue Grass Stakes. He’ll come running down the stretch.

“And since we know Taiba has already looked Messier in his eye and spit in it, I’m going with a boxed exacta of Zandon, with those incredible speed ratings, along with Taiba and Epicenter.”

Boxed exacta defined: A bet on two or more horses to finish first and second in any particular order.

Samarzich will add in a longshot wager on 20/1 Simplification, believing bettors should cast aside consideration of its defeat the last time out.

“He was pestered to the lead and was done in, losing by a couple lengths, but he likes coming off the pace,” Samarzich said.

That moves us to veteran sports publicity man Steve Brener, the Santa Anita Park publicist who has bet on the Derby for decades as a fun aside.

His knowledge of the sport, and his countless contacts, make Brener a must-see individual on Derby weekends because he’s usually manning the big-fight Cinco de Mayo boxing cards in Las Vegas, including Saturday’s Canelo Alvarez-Dmitry Bivol light-heavyweight title fight at T-Mobile Arena.

Brener’s breakdown is brief.

“I think (jockey) Mike Smith will have Taiba in the right spot early in the race and when it’s go time, I think this horse will show impressive kick to win the race from Epicenter and Joel Rosario,” Brener said. “My longshot play is Crown Pride (20/1) from Japan.”

Another astute member of our crew is Bally’s Interactive Senior Vice President of Risk and Trading Jay Rood, the former head of the MGM Race and Sports book in Las Vegas who routinely has provided quality Kentucky Derby opinions.

Surprisingly, Rood likes a hefty longshot, Zozos, a Minnesota horse.

“He’s only run three times, but he was second to Epicenter (in the late-March Louisiana Derby), and I think he’s got a shot to cash a big ticket if he’s been trained well,” Rood said. “He’s unproven but full of potential.”

Rood also likes Crown Pride because “the field is wide open.”

Lastly, before we settle on our own pick, we consult Bob McGrath, the veteran player who has mentored my own track wagering throughout the past decade.

McGrath, like Samarzich, said he’ll be watching the track’s condition closely Saturday.

“My pick is for an exacta box with Mo Donegal (10/1), Epicenter, Messier and Zandon, and my two longshot picks hitting the board are Barber Road (30/1) and Cyberknife (20/1, also sired by Gun Runner),” McGrath said.

“With 22 horses in the field, anything can happen. My personal favorite is Mo Donegal … good luck. We’ll all need it.”

Maybe it’s my West Coast bias, but the fact that Taiba has already shown impressive closing speed to sprint past Messier toward the wire at the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby portends great things for the bigger 1 ¼-mile race Churchill Downs.

The odds are ideal, the horse is formidable, and Mike Smith is the jockey. I’ll roll the dice on that all day, every day.

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Kentucky Derby: What the experts say about Zandon, Taiba, other horses