Six stats that explain the Big Six's Premier League seasons so far
Liverpool's first, Man City's not, and both Manchester United and Chelsea are way, way, way off their season goals after 16 weeks of the Premier League season.
Oh, and Tottenham Hotspur are punching above their weight early in the tenure of Ange Postecoglou, and the reason might be a player who could soon be considered the best in the division at his position.
[ MORE: 10 things we learned from the Premier League’s Week 16 ]
So we dug deep into this numbers this Monday to get an idea of why the above five teams are where they are on the Premier League table.
What did we learn? The Premier League season may eventually settle into something closer to expected once Man City gets Kevin De Bruyne back, Chelsea gets its finisher, and Man United finds anything from its forwards.
Mohamed Salah has been the best player in the Premier League
And he might be the most important one, too.
Salah, 31, is right up there with Manchester City's Rodri and Spurs' Heung-min Son as the most critical components of their teams seasons so far.
He's second to Erling Haaland in goals and tied with Kieran Trippier and Pedro Neto for the Premier League lead in assists, while leading the Premier League outright in big chances created by three. He's third to Callum Wilson and Haaland in xG+xA per 90 minutes.
Salah has scored or assisted half of Liverpool's 36 markers on the season, and just hit the 200 mark for goals as a Liverpool player.
Only three times has Salah failed to get a goal or an assist in a game for Liverpool. The Reds are 3W-1D-2L in those games. Those two losses (Toulouse and Man City) are the only times they've fallen this season.
Guglielmo Vicario is an absolute stud
Alisson Becker is still the best goalkeeper in the Premier League and maybe the world, but newcomer Guglielmo Vicario of Tottenham is having an absurd first season in the division.
Yes, it helps that Tottenham's high-risk system under Ange Postecoglou asks quite a bit of its keeper, but consider the following numbers.
1) Vicario has Manuel Neuer-eque defensive numbers outside the penalty area, where his 40 actions outside his 18 rank him tops in the league. That figure is nine more than the next closest competitor (Emiliano Martinez).
2) The Italian has faced the sixth-highest post-shot expected goals total in the Premier League (25.9), and is pulling up trees with a league-best 4.6 post-shot expected goals minus goals allowed. Only Las Palmas' Alvaro Valles, Koln's Marvin Schwabe, Le Havre's Arthur Desmas, and Hoffenheim's Oliver Baumann have posted higher figures amongst keepers in the top four European leagues.
Sorry, Callum Wilson. There's a reason he's looking cocky.
Manchester City’s dip more than bad luck
Don't get us wrong, Pep Guardiola's Manchester City remains a statistical monster that should be favored to win every competition it enters with a healthy lineup.
But the club's open play numbers — a group of figures that usually sees City strutting its stuff — show a team that is giving up more shots than it has in any of their three most recent title wins.
Manchester City open play shots for/shots against/differential
2023-24 (16 games) — 11.7-6.2 (+5.5)
2022-23 — 11.5-5.4 (+6.1)
2021-22 — 14.1-4.7 (+10.6)
2020-21 — 12.3-5.5 (+6.8)
Again, the team is still a monster, putting the Premier League's most shots on target per match while completing the most passes and long balls, scoring the most goals, and sitting behind only Arsenal in xGA. But there's a reason their margins for error has been slimmer than usual.
The return of Kevin De Bruyne, who played the second half of City's 2022-23 campaign with injury, too, is the club's best chance to get back to normal, as will Erling Haaland finishing more chances. But be warned: the club does not have answer to a Rodri absence. There are few like him in the world.
Bruno Fernandes lead not being followed; Varane being wasted
We're not talking about his lead as Manchester United captain, either.
Portuguese playmaker Bruno Fernandes has 47 created chances this season, according to fotmob, more than any other player in the Premier League. His expected assist total is 5.2, and only Kieran Trippier has more expected assists.
Trippier leads the lead in actual assists with seven. Fernandes has three.
United is going to start finishing more chances, especially once Rasmus Hojlund brings his Champions League goals to the Premier League. Hojlund's eight missed big chances is the fifth-highest total in the division, while Rashford's six have him tied for 10th (Fernandes' four are tied for 20th).
United's next best chance maker has been fullback Diogo Dalot (40th) and then Alejandro Garnacho (57th). Their xG figure is 11th in the league and their goal haul is 15th. Marginally good finishing would probably have Erik ten Hag's men top four right now.
But, hey, so would better defending. The Red Devils are 13th in xGA, having conceded 8.49 fewer goals than expected to boot. Andre Onana hasn't been consistent, but he's not been given a soft landing to start life at Old Trafford.
It just so happens that both of United's flaws might be fixed by just using different guys. Raphael Varane's fallen out of favor but the Red Devils are 3W-5L when he doesn't play. And Jadon Sancho, suspended for attitude issues, was second on United in key passes per game and tied for third in goals last season.
But hey, something something about culture.
Chelsea craves Christopher (Nkunku)
Nicolas Jackson isn't a bad footballer by any means, but it's intriguing to consider where Mauricio Pochettino's Chelsea would be with an elite finisher.
Christopher Nkunku is an elite finisher. In fact, the injured 26-year-old Frenchman is out of this world and just what the Blues need right now as he builds back to fitness.
Consider than Nkunku's last year (fbref.com) places him in the:
99th percentile of non-penalty xG+xa per 90 minutes (1.0)
98th percentile of shot-creating actions/90 (5.34)
99th percentile in progressive passes received/90 (10.41)
96th percentile in successful take-ons/90 (2.81)
96th percentile in non-penalty xG/90 (0.69)
Those numbers will dip a little with more minutes and acclamation to a new league. And a team that spends like Chelsea should have answers for one player's absence, but Nkunku is in good position to feast and the Blues 32.62 xG compared to it 26 actuals goals should not look nearly as bad, soon.
Arsenal is more sound, but less clinical (for now)
They don't give up chances, they rarely give up goals, and they keep the ball almost as much as Man City. Declan Rice has been just what the doctor ordered and William Saliba has gotten even better, and David Raya had been an upgrade in goal until an error-strewn few weeks mirrored his numbers to Aaron Ramsdale.
So with the league decidedly sorting itself out, why isn't Arsenal running away with the league?
Easy. Their final balls don't match their electric ambition.
Arsenal ranks 10th in big chances created, according to fotmob, and 10th in non-penalty expected goals. The Gunners are tied for fourth in goals but seventh in non-penalty goals.
Take their most recent 1-0 loss to Aston Villa, where the Gunners defense allowed just 0.63 to a dangerous Villa and produced 1.72 expected goals.
This team is better in nearly every game, and it's getting goals from all over the pitch. Eight players have multiple goals in Premier League play alone.
There's hope in both the eye test and the numbers, and Arsenal has at least four Best XI candidates; Bukayo Saka is a shoo-in, William Saliba is close, and both Martin Odegaard and Rice would only miss out because of positional congestion and a need for club diversity in the awards.
And we're betting Mikel Arteta would take the club's miserly improved defense at the expense of a few fireworks.
