Jimbo Fisher contract didn't prevent Texas A&M football coach from leading SEC hot seat odds | Toppmeyer
SEC football coaches can exhale. No one is getting fired in September — at least according to one gambling handicapper.
Bookies.com's Dan Kilbridge recently released hypothetical odds on the college football season's first firing. No SEC coach cracked his top seven. That must be disappointing for message boarders who hammer out "Fire everybody!" on the keyboard at the first sign of trouble.
Leading Kilbridge's first-fired odds is West Virginia's Neal Brown. Poor Brown. The former Troy coach can't catch a break. Last month, the media picked WVU to finish last in the Big 12.
Brown's WVU record is 22-25, he's working for an athletic director who didn't hire him, and WVU's September schedule includes three ranked opponents. Makes sense why Kilbridge listed Brown as having a 28.6% chance of being fired first.
Following Brown are Dino Babers (Syracuse), Jeff Hafley (Boston College), Tom Allen (Indiana), Danny Gonzales (New Mexico), Justin Wilcox (California) and Ryan Silverfield (Memphis).
Finally, the hit list arrived at its first and only SEC coach: Jimbo Fisher checked in at No. 8. Kilbridge gave the Texas A&M coach a 4.8% chance of being the first coach fired.
Eleven SEC coaches were fired the past four seasons after no firings in 2018. But most coaches last until at least the season's midpoint. Bryan Harsin's Auburn tenure had flatlined by this time last year, but he didn't turn into a pumpkin until Halloween. Go back to LSU's 2016 firing of Les Miles for the SEC's last September firing.
Fisher faces mounting pressure, but even he's not on a scalding-hot seat — not yet, anyway. He can thank his buyout, which will still exceed $77 million in December. His Aggies are positioned to rebound after they flopped to 5-7 last season.
Coaches firings run the gamut. You never know when a coach might call escorts from his university cell phone or incorporate his babysitter in a sloppy recruiting scandal. Shenanigans aside, this projects as a quiet autumn for SEC firings.
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Billy Napier needs to accelerate Florida, but he enjoys enough support from athletic director Scott Stricklin that he'll probably see a third season, especially if Napier's hot recruiting continues.
Missouri's Eliah Drinkwitz could test how quickly a coach can go from contract extension to hot seat. His buyout would be about $20 million if he's fired after this season, but his contract includes a mitigation requirement that would reduce financial damages if Drinkwitz got another job. His 17-19 Missouri record is worse than predecessor Barry Odom's was through three seasons. Odom didn't get a fifth season.
Vanderbilt is Missouri's only SEC opponent in September. Then the Tigers must navigate a stretch of seven straight SEC opponents throughout October and November. That could leave Drinkwitz tiptoeing through a minefield.
By then, WVU's Brown could reside in buyout utopia.
How far is conference travel after realignment?
Come 2024, this will be the farthest distances between two schools in the same conference. These are as-the-crow-flies distances. Driving distances would be lengthier — hundreds of miles longer, in some cases.
Big Ten (Oregon to Rutgers): 2,463 miles
Big 12 (BYU to UCF): 1,902 miles
ACC (Miami to Boston College): 1,260 miles
SEC (Texas to South Carolina): 1,011 miles
Email of the week
Johnny writes: I totally agree with your assessment of Pitt’s fit in the SEC. Pitt is not in the South, but it’s in Appalachia. Knoxville is more “Appalachian” than “The South.” I believe Tennessee’s strong Appalachian identity has made it unique. (See Rocky Top.) Pitt would add Appalachian flavor to the conference.
My response: The more I consider my suggestion that Pittsburgh could be the SEC's 20th team in a hypothetical where it also adds Clemson, Florida State and North Carolina, the more I think it's logical. Burghers love their football, albeit tilted toward the NFL's Steelers, but a move to the SEC could elevate interest in Pitt. I agree Pitt's Appalachian vibe would mesh with Tennessee and also with Kentucky and North Carolina.
Three and out
1. Combine transfer freedom and a shift to a more businesslike model, and "the joy is not the same" in college football, Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin told the SEC Network.
That's debatable. I witnessed downright euphoria among Tennessee players and fans last season at Neyland Stadium after the Vols beat Alabama for the first time since 2006. Among the Vols' heroes that night? Quarterback Hendon Hooker and kicker Chase McGrath. Both were transfers. Hooker gave his mom an emotional embrace while fans spilled onto the field. A scene of unbridled joy.
2. After LSU's second preseason practice fight, coach Brian Kelly reminded players "to respect the brotherhood," defensive end Sai'vion Jones said. Deion Sanders took a different tack. After a scuffle during a Colorado practice, the coach got miffed — at the players who didn't join in. "If one fighting, we all fight," Sanders told his team.
If this sounds crazy, remember the Buffaloes allowed 44.5 points per game last season. That program needs more fight.
3. Georgia's seven home games are sold out, the Athens Banner-Herald reported. Ticket-buyers weren't dissuaded by a weak home slate, highlighted by a Nov. 11 game against Ole Miss. Other home games are against Tennessee-Martin, Ball State, UAB, South Carolina, Kentucky and Missouri. Sold out at kickoff, and celebrating victory by halftime.
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's SEC Columnist. Email him at BToppmeyer@gannett.com and follow him on Twitter @btoppmeyer.
The "Topp Rope" is his SEC football column published throughout the USA TODAY Network. If you enjoy Blake’s coverage, consider a digital subscription that will allow you access to all of it. Also, check out his podcast, SEC Football Unfiltered, or access exclusive columns via the SEC Unfiltered newsletter.
This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Jimbo Fisher: Texas A&M football coach leads SEC hot seat odds
