Final game-by-game predictions for the Texas football season
There’s only one more Saturday without college football before the 2023 season kicks off. Our opinions are starting to solidify.
We recently shared our standings prediction, but given Iowa State’s betting scandal our prediction changes. We don’t think the Cyclones will beat the Longhorns without an experienced starting quarterback. And there’s a real possibility that’s what Iowa State will be up against when game planning to defeat Texas.
There are only a handful of games Texas could lose given roster depth and talent advantages. The Longhorns’ most likely losses would come against Alabama, Baylor and TCU on the road, Oklahoma on a neutral site and Kansas State and Texas Tech at home. Some of those games are still extremely unlikely losses.
Let’s predict the 2023 season for Texas.
Rice
Texas, 62-10
Texas record: 1-0
The only Rice that wins in Austin is named Sir’Jabari, and he plays basketball. The Longhorns blanked the Owls, 58-0, in their 5-7 campaign in 2021. Texas should win this one solidly.
at Alabama
Texas, 31-27
Texas record: 2-0
The Longhorns outclassed the Alabama Crimson Tide at several positions last season. However, the Tide had the best player on the field, No. 1 NFL draft pick Bryce Young. I would expect Quinn Ewers to be sharp in this game, but he faces a dominant defensive front that could bring pressure. The home-field advantage favors Alabama, but Texas finds a way to win.
Wyoming
Texas, 41-17
Texas record: 3-0
The team struggles here after upsetting Alabama in what could be a top-10 matchup. Texas currently ranks No. 11 in the AP poll. Longhorns wide receiver Isaiah Neyor could have opportunities to make plays against his former team.
at Baylor
Texas, 34-27
Texas record: 4-0
Texas refocuses and wins a tough road battle in Waco. The talent disparity between the two teams is so wide, but Baylor is simply a different beast against Texas at home. The Longhorns win, but it’s a nail-biter.
Kansas
Texas, 63-24
Texas record: 5-0
Detractors of the team in Austin have an extremely selective memory. Far more remember Texas losing to Kansas by a point in 2021 than recall that the Longhorns defeathered the Jayhawks in Lawrence last season, 55-14. Kansas might score, but Texas should score more.
Oklahoma
Texas, 52-35
Texas record: 6-0
Last I checked, Oklahoma has not addressed the weakness it has at cornerback. We pointed to that as a potential area that Texas could exploit last offseason, and did the Longhorns ever do that in 2022. The Sooners have a good starting 22 if healthy, but don’t match up well with Texas receivers or offensive line. Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian raises his scoring average over 48.5 points per game against Oklahoma.
at Houston
Texas, 51-24
Texas record: 7-0
It’s hard to picture a world in which Houston slows the Texas offense. The Longhorns can probably score at a high rate with a vanilla offensive game plan here.
BYU
Texas, 37-23
Texas record: 8-0
This should be a Texas win, but BYU has a history of ruining the Longhorns’ night in the past. Cougars quarterback Kedon Slovis turns in a strong performance but the Longhorns win at home.
Kansas State
Texas, 49-31
Texas record: 9-0
Many are predicting Kansas State will upset Texas this season. That hasn’t happened since six games ago and two Longhorns coaches ago. This game is in Austin. The Wildcats had enough trouble with Xavier Worthy and Ja’Tavion Sanders at receiver last year. Add AD Mitchell, Isaiah Neyor and Johntay Cook, and Kansas State probably gets rolled by the ‘Horns.
at TCU
TCU, 41-38
Texas record: 9-1
It’s highly possible Texas is going to lose to TCU this season. The game is in Fort Worth, and the Horned Frogs have talent in the right places to match the Longhorns. Add the coaching advantage TCU head coach Sonny Dykes has over Sarkisian, and this upset pick seems like a no-brainer.
at Iowa State
Texas, 35-10
Texas record: 10-1
The Iowa State defense is capable of shutting down the Texas offense. Without an offensive threat, the Cyclones will either press and turn the ball over or get conservative and punt over and over. In either case, the strain on the Iowa State defense is too much.
Texas Tech
Texas Tech, 41-37
Texas record: 10-2
Somehow, some way it feels like Texas will find a way to lose two games this season. The Black Friday game against Texas Tech seems like a perfect opportunity to get upset. The Red Raiders improve to 9-3. The win means Tech overtakes Kansas State for a spot in the Big 12 championship.
Next: Big 12 championship prediction.
Big 12 championship game
Texas 38, Texas Tech 27.
Texas record: 11-2
This potential game has a similar feel to the 2018 Big 12 championship between Texas and Oklahoma. Texas had a game plan to defeat the Sooners but used it in the regular season. The better team separates and Texas figures out head coach Joey McGuire and his antics. Quinn Ewers takes over the game.
