Film breakdown: What IU basketball should expect from No. 2 Kansas on Saturday

On Saturday, IU will host No. 2 Kansas in the Hoosiers’ most important game of the season to this point. Bill Self’s Jayhawks throttled IU in Allen Fieldhouse last year, and now Mike Woodson and the Hoosiers will look to return the favor in the back half of the home-and-home series.

After a 104-76 loss to Auburn in Atlanta, Indiana badly needs a bounce-back game. Let’s look through the film to see the threat Kansas poses.

High-tempo Attack

The skill of Kansas’ offense is playing in transition. When the Jayhawks get stops, they like to run and attempt to score early. This season, the average Kansas offensive possession lasts 15.9 seconds (per KenPom). This team wants to run up the court and get easy buckets near the hoop.

Kansas will be the first team IU plays this year that puts extra emphasis on scoring in transition. Last season, the Jayhawks (who return three starters) put up 22 fastbreak points on the Hoosiers in Lawrence. For IU to keep this one close, it can’t have a repeat of that on Saturday.

With Michigan transfer Dickinson joining the roster, Kansas has had to adjust its offense to work around him. The senior center is averaging 19.4 points per game and making 63.6% of his field goals, both career highs. Kansas likes to use him in the post, both from the block and the mid-range area. The Jayhawks use Dickinson’s 7-2 frame to create offense.

Dickinson is also a threat as a ball screener. Dickinson — who’s gone 11-of-19 on 3s this year — is a threat to either roll or pop and take a jumper.

What stands out most about Kansas — especially in its halfcourt offense — is the unselfishness the team plays with. This season, 73% of Kansas’ field goals come from an assist, which is first in the country (KenPom). Kansas is an experienced team with guys who make the extra pass. That unselfishness allows them to set up high-quality looks.

Kansas is exceptional at sharing the ball, but the team’s exemplary assist numbers can be a double-edged sword. The Jayhawks struggle with self-creation, which caps what they do offensively.

When Kansas doesn’t score in transition and doesn’t create an advantage off its initial actions, the offense stalls out. Kansas is without someone who can make something out of nothing late in the shot clock. This leads to occasional lulls in the offense.

If Indiana can slow Kansas’ offense down, the Hoosiers could murk the game up a bit. When the Jayhawks play with rhythm, they’re too talented to stop. But this team lacks players that can truly get their own shot from the perimeter. Indiana can look to disrupt Kansas’ rhythm.

Another weak spot for Kansas is its lack of shooting. Like IU, Kansas doesn’t take many 3s. Only 30.4% of Kansas’ field-goal attempts are from beyond the arc. Kansas sinks 38.2% of its 3-point attempts, but it doesn’t have many players who frequently fire away from deep. This team misses the floor spacing of Gradey Dick, who was drafted in the NBA lottery after shooting 40.3% from 3 on 5.7 attempts per game last year.

The Jayhawks win by sharing the ball and getting inside. Their offense is predicated on pushing the ball up the court and quickly getting into actions. It will be fascinating to see how IU handles this pace on Saturday.

Switch Everything?

Kansas is best on the defensive end. Teams only make 37.1% of their shots against Kansas. The length, communication, and discipline of Kansas on the defensive end will challenge Indiana on Saturday.

Kansas is the rare college basketball team that switches most screens on defense. The Jayhawks switch from the point guard to power forward positions while keeping Dickinson on opposing centers.

You’ll notice that Kansas’ defensive possessions take longer than its offensive possessions. The constant switching immediately shuts down offensive actions, causing teams to play deep into the shot clock.

It will be interesting to see if Kansas continues to switch most actions against IU. Most teams no longer have two players who are legitimate post threats, but the Hoosiers use Malik Reneau and Kel’el Ware, who are both strong finishers that post up. Kansas may not be able to get away with switching against Reneau and Ware.

Last year, Kansas guarded most ball screens at the level of the screen. KJ Adams — who starts and mainly plays power forward this year — played most of his minutes at center in 2022-23. Instead of switching, Adams hedged at the level of the screener, and the Jayhawks recovered behind him.

Adams and Dickinson will be the key to this game defensively. How they match up with IU’s big men will be something to watch. Last Saturday, Auburn used their centers to guard Reneau, IU’s power forward. Reneau struggled to score against players who were the same size or bigger than him.

Self may watch that game and deploy Dickinson on Reneau instead of Adams. If that’s the case, Reneau will have to use his agility to score on Dickinson.

As far as the perimeter players go, Kansas allows opponents to take a lot of 3s. Teams shoot 27.4 3s per game against the Jayhawks, but they make only 29.9% of them. Indiana notoriously doesn’t take a lot of outside shots and doesn’t shoot well (27.2%). The Hoosiers will need to find a way to drive down the lane and score against Kansas.

Kansas’ defense is one of the best in the nation, but it hasn’t seen size like Indiana’s. These are two of the tallest teams in the country. Per KenPom, Indiana is third in the country in average height (79.1 inches), while Kansas is ninth (78.7 inches). With two teams that don’t shoot a lot of 3s, the battle inside will be key.

Final Thoughts

Kansas enters Saturday as the better team with quality wins over UConn, Tennessee and Kentucky. The Jayhawks will rightfully be favored to win this game.

If Indiana can bring Kansas’ tempo down, disrupt Kansas’ typical defensive scheme and not implode like it did against Auburn, it can keep this game close. Indiana’s size could cause issues for Kansas early in the game.

Not to mention the success the Hoosiers have had in big home games during Woodson’s tenure. IU has beaten Purdue squads ranked in the top five twice at home under Woodson, and it beat a ranked North Carolina team last November in Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. It’s worth noting that Saturday’s game will have limited student seating due to winter break, but the environment will likely still be hostile.

IU will need a balanced, wire-to-wire effort (and maybe a little luck) to pick up a victory that could go a long way toward building an NCAA tournament resume.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Indiana basketball: What challenges Kansas Jayhawks pose for Hoosiers