FHSAA high school football rankings are here: Where do Northeast Florida teams stack up?

The numbers are in.

Bradford, Raines and St. Augustine led their respective regions as the Florida High School Athletic Association released its first official rankings Tuesday for the 2023 high school football season — the rankings that will eventually determine who makes playoff football a reality.

But several other traditional Northeast Florida gridiron powers have work to do between Friday's Week 6 and the regular season's close on Nov. 3.

Undefeated St. Augustine, third in the FHSAA's formula for Class 3S, placed highest among locals at No. 9 overall. No. 21 Bradford and No. 23 Suwannee, both undefeated in Class 2S, are next.

With six weeks still to play, what does it all mean? See some of the key takeaways.

Turnaround teams: How 6 Northeast Florida high school football teams made strides in 2023

Providence's rise shakes up Class 1M

The anticipated Trinity Christian-University Christian duel in Region 1-1M is getting a new twist.

Right there in between those teams is Providence, sitting comfortably at 4-1 with top performers on both sides of the ball, ranging from Mason Williams to Jett Hood to two-way junior athlete Sam Hayward. Although the season isn't yet halfway through, the ranking formula favored the Stallions ahead of nine-time state champion Trinity.

Can Providence keep it up? They'll face a major test Friday night against University Christian, followed by Trinity Christian on Oct. 27.

Who's on top? See Northeast Florida Power Polls for football and volleyball after Week 5

District 3-4S, tough as advertised

Everyone knew District 3-4S — matching Bartram Trail, Creekside, Fleming Island and Oakleaf with 2022 state semifinalist Gainesville Buchholz — would be tough. It's living up to that billing.

Buchholz ranks second statewide in the formula, behind only Class 1M superpower Hollywood Chaminade-Madonna. The district's four other teams have won twice.

If the season ended today, Bartram Trail and Creekside would both receive at-large bids. Oakleaf and Fleming Island aren't far behind, though, and there's a real chance that the 2023 season could produce four qualifiers from the district.

Despite Creekside's 2-3 record, the FHSAA formula greatly respects the Knights' schedule. Creekside's degree of difficulty is exceeded only by four teams in Florida: Miami Central, Quincy Munroe, Plantation American Heritage and Lake Minneola.

Also faring well in Class 4S: Ponte Vedra, only three points away from an undefeated first half. The Sharks take on Flagler Palm Coast in a crucial District 4-4S game Friday.

Raines is Ichiban again in 2M

It's Ichiban — number one — time once again for Raines in Region 1-2M.

The Vikings, whose only loss came to undefeated Class 3M No. 1 Daytona Beach Mainland, head the region with the most Jacksonville teams, Region 1-2M. Buoyed by Ty'ren Randolph's four-touchdown game last week, Raines enters with momentum this week against Riverside.

Bolles is just behind, followed by Riverside — the one school that has already clinched a playoff berth as a district champion — and Bishop Kenny next in line. Much like Creekside, Bolles' eighth-toughest schedule trumps the Bulldogs' 2-3 won-lost record.

What do the FHSAA rankings mean?

Right now, next to nothing. In the long run, a lot.

District champions automatically qualify for the regional tournaments, but as for others, the FHSAA will select at-large qualifiers -- four per region per class -- based on the ranking system. The ranking formula, which the FHSAA has not made public, is derived from a variant of the MaxPreps system. Based on the early numbers, the FHSAA formula once again appears to assign greater weight to won-lost record than strength of schedule.

As in 2022, several of the FHSAA's rankings are likely to raise some eyebrows, like the placement of perennial power Miami Central at No. 74. It's a different story in the USA TODAY Florida Network poll, where Miami Central tops Class 2M. Locally, the FHSAA formula placed Baker County more than three points behind Baldwin in District 5-2S despite the Wildcats' head-to-head road win two weeks ago.

Here's the complete list of Jacksonville-area rankings.

A look ahead? What would the FHSAA brackets look like if the playoffs started today?

DISTRICT 1-4M

Mandarin 11.508 (No. 2 seed)

Atlantic Coast 2.391

Sandalwood -10.007

OTHER REGION 1-4M CONTENDERS

Lake Mary 14.304

Sanford Seminole 11.109

Winter Park 10.416

Apopka 10.270

Oviedo Hagerty 2.885

Orlando Evans 2.668

DISTRICT 1-3M

Englewood 3.269 (No. 7 seed)

Fletcher 2.939 (No. 8 seed)

First Coast -3.784

Parker -7.858

OTHER REGION 1-3M CONTENDERS

Edgewater 14.180

Tampa Bay Tech 10.931

Seffner Armwood 7.770

Oviedo 6.595

Tampa Wharton 3.801

Wekiva 3.735

Orlando Jones 2.038

DISTRICT 1-2M

Raines 8.384 (No. 1 seed)

Ribault -3.006

Jackson -6.488

DISTRICT 2-2M

Bolles 6.252 (No. 2 seed)

Bishop Kenny 4.107 (No. 4 seed)

Episcopal 1.976 (No. 6 seed)

Wolfson 0.683 (No. 8 seed)

DISTRICT 3-2M

Riverside* 5.520 (No. 3 seed)

White 1.650 (No. 7 seed)

Westside -13.395

OTHER REGION 1-2M CONTENDERS

Bishop Moore 2.410

DISTRICT 1-1M

University Christian 4.784

Providence 4.677

Trinity Christian 3.977

NFEI -6.779

OTHER REGION 1-1M CONTENDERS

Orlando Christian Prep 7.856

Orlando First Academy 1.583

DISTRICT 3-4S

Gainesville Buchholz 17.905 (No. 1 seed)

Bartram Trail 7.160 (No. 6 seed)

Creekside 6.949 (No. 7 seed)

Oakleaf 6.131

Fleming Island 3.546

DISTRICT 4-4S

Ponte Vedra 8.978 (No. 5 seed)

Flagler Palm Coast 6.813

Nease 2.558

Tocoi Creek 1.759

OTHER REGION 1-4S CONTENDERS

Niceville 11.715

Pace 10.088

Tallahassee Leon 9.895

Tallahassee Chiles 5.066

DISTRICT 3-3S

Middleburg 0.903 (No. 8 seed)

Orange Park -0.272

Columbia -5.502

Ridgeview -6.653

DISTRICT 4-3S

St. Augustine 15.273 (No. 1 seed)

Clay 6.173 (No. 4 seed)

Matanzas 5.042 (No. 6 seed)

Menendez -2.930

Gainesville -6.342

OTHER REGION 1-3S CONTENDERS

Tallahassee Lincoln 15.119

Escambia 9.577

Choctawhatchee 5.528

Pensacola Pine Forest 1.907

Fort Walton Beach 0.622

DISTRICT 4-2S

Suwannee 13.354 (No. 2 seed)

Wakulla 12.603 (No. 3 seed)

Taylor County -8.816

OTHER REGION 1-2S CONTENDERS

Walton 14.182

Pensacola Catholic 12.127

Marianna 12.012

Florida High 9.755

DISTRICT 5-2S

Yulee 5.894 (No. 2 seed)

Baldwin 3.654 (No. 5 seed)

Fernandina Beach 0.433 (No. 6 seed)

Baker County -0.241 (No. 7 seed)

West Nassau -9.852

DISTRICT 6-2S

Bradford 13.908 (No. 1 seed)

Palatka 5.282 (No. 3 seed)

Keystone Heights -3.305

OTHER REGION 2-2S CONTENDERS

Gainesville Eastside 5.226

DISTRICT 3-1S

P.K. Yonge 0.766

Ocala Trinity Catholic -0.190

St. Joseph -6.417

OTHER REGION 2-1S CONTENDERS

Halifax Academy 5.723

Melbourne Holy Trinity 2.708

REGION 3-1R

Mayo Lafayette 6.217

Fort White 5.667 (No. 2 seed)

Madison County 5.319

Union County 2.017 (No. 4 seed)

Branford -0.115

Hilliard -2.579

Hamilton County -2.756

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: High school football 2023: FHSAA releases first Jacksonville rankings