Fantasy Football Week 15 Start 'Em Sit 'Em

Fantasy football sit-and-start advice should always be relative and league-dependent. Note that some players are targeted for DFS. Good luck with your Week 15 lineups!

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers

Sit: Drake London

Start: Chuba Hubbard

London is coming off a tremendous performance last week when he somehow converted 178 air yards into 172 receiving yards. He’d be a fantasy star on a different team but remains with Desmond Ridder, who’s averaged 145.5 passing yards with just two TD passes over six road games this year. London has averaged 88.8 receiving yards at home but just 35.3 on the road this season and has seen his target rate drop from 32.5% against man down to 19.7% versus zone — a coverage the Panthers use at the league’s third-highest rate. Moreover, Carolina is an extreme run-funnel defense allowing the second-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers, and the weather looks like a problem.

Meanwhile, Bijan Robinson’s eruption during the fantasy playoffs starts Sunday.

Hubbard has seen 25 touches in back-to-back games since Frank Reich was fired, and this game should be competitive with a three-point spread. Bryce Young and Carolina’s offense limits his upside, but Hubbard’s volume makes him a viable fantasy start if needed.

Chicago Bears @ Cleveland Browns

Sit: D’Onta Foreman

Start: Amari Cooper

Foreman has emerged as the leader in Chicago’s backfield, although Roschon Johnson and Khalil Herbert still get touches. It’s a tough setup this week against a Browns defense allowing just 3.5 yards per play at home this season — nearly a full yard lower than the next best D. The Browns are yielding the fifth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs this year, so Foreman is a bench candidate.

Cooper tied for the league lead with 14 targets last week, and he’s always a better bet at home. With Cooper on the field over the last two weeks (he left injured during one), Joe Flacco has targeted him 19 times compared to seven to Elijah Moore. The Bears’ pass defense has played great lately, but Cooper should see good volume (Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt are also both banged up) from a QB with the most air yards over the last two weeks.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers

Start in DFS: Mike Evans ($29)

Start: Jayden Reed

Evans is coming off his quietest game of the season (and just missed a touchdown) but should rebound with a big performance Sunday. Chris Godwin is expected to play through a knee injury but could be slowed, and Evans averaged 10.8 targets over his previous four games before last week’s dud. He’s a DFS option in Week 15.

Reed saw a career-high 10 targets last week and has emerged as Green Bay’s No. 1 wide receiver. He’s also recorded 10 rush attempts since Week 9 (scoring twice) and ranks top 20 in fantasy points per route run this season. The Packers get a reeling Tampa Bay defense that’s allowed the second-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to the slot, where Reed has run 73% of his routes. With Christian Watson likely to miss another game with a hamstring injury, Reed is a top-25 WR this week.

New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins

Start: Garrett Wilson, Raheem Mostert

Wilson saw 14 targets and a season-high 108 receiving yards during Zach Wilson’s return last week. Z. Wilson is a clear upgrade over Tim Boyle, and the Jets should be passing frequently as 8.5-point underdogs Sunday. Miami has allowed the sixth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers, and the once-concerning weather is looking better.

Mostert could be in store for a big workload with De’Von Achane playing through a toe injury and Tyreek Hill unable to go because of an ankle injury. New York is tough against the pass but is a run-funnel defense whose opponents average the most rush attempts (32.2) per game this season. With the Dolphins near double-digit home favorites, Mostert is a top-10 RB this week.

New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints

Sit: Giants wide receivers

Start: Rashid Shaheed

Wan’Dale Robinson emerged last week, marking the fourth different player to lead the Giants in receiving over the team’s last four games. Tommy DeVito has wheels to spare, but he’s yet to attempt more than 27 passes during any of his four starts. The Giants are widely distributing targets in a low-volume offense, so stay away from their receivers.

We originally only hyped Olave here, but the receiver is out due to an ankle injury. Rashid Shaheed, who is back healthy, is worth your attention. He'll see an expanded role with Olave sitting (and with Michael Thomas on IR) in a favorable matchup, making him a fantasy sleeper in this matchup. The Giants have ceded the third-most fantasy points to wide receivers.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans

Sit: Devin Singletary

Start in DFS: Derrick Henry ($29)

Singletary has retaken Houston’s lead back role over Dameon Pierce, although Dare Ogunbowale took a lot of passing-down work last week. The Titans are a stout run defense, and the Texans are underdogs with a lowly team total while missing C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins (likely) and Tank Dell. Detective Davis Mills posted a completion percentage over expectation in the zero-th percentile last week, leaving the Texans to turn to veteran Case Keenum this week, so Singletary is a tough fantasy start.

Henry was fortunate two short scores masked getting shut down last week, but the Big Dog is up to six touchdowns over his last three games. Henry has big splits during wins and losses again this season, but Tennessee is favored over an extremely banged-up Texans team. He's averaged 203.6 rushing yards and 2.0 touchdowns over his last five games against Houston. The Texans have a solid run defense, but game script should favor a Titans team that’s 4-1 in Tennessee this season. Henry is getting 4.8 YPC and has scored seven TDs at home this year, so he’s a DFS option this week.

Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots

Start: Jerick McKinnon, Ezekiel Elliott

With Isiah Pacheco out, McKinnon could be a sneaky fantasy start this week. Clyde Edwards-Helaire will likely get shut down by the league’s best run defense over the last five weeks, and McKinnon should be more involved during his second game back from injury. Patrick Mahomes doesn’t trust his receivers (although Rashee Rice has become a weekly top-20 fantasy WR anyway), so McKinnon could start racking up targets down the stretch. He scored Kansas City’s goal-line TD last week, so McKinnon is a deep PPR option if needed.

Elliott saw every New England RB carry with Rhamondre Stevenson out last week, also leading the Patriots in targets and receptions. He finished as the No. 1 fantasy back in Week 14 and is a top-12 RB again Sunday with Stevenson ruled out. The Patriots have a lowly total, but Elliott will once again see 20+ touches at home against a Chiefs run defense that ranks last in DVOA over the last five weeks.

San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals

Start: Brock Purdy

Sit: James Conner

Purdy has averaged 314.2 passing yards over his last six games and has thrown 13 touchdowns over his last five. The most accurate deep passer in the NFL, Purdy’s 9.9 YPA is the highest of any qualifying QB in 67 years. The Cardinals are allowing the second-most EPA/pass and the eighth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. The 49ers have the highest implied team total (30+ points) by a wide margin, so Purdy should be considered a top-three fantasy QB this week — and the league’s MVP.

Conner had a season-high 25 carries and was the RB5 in Week 13 before Arizona’s bye. It broke a stretch of him not reaching 7.5 fantasy points (0.5 PPR) in a game since Week 3, and he gets a stingy 49ers defense allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to running backs this season. San Francisco’s defense is dealing with injuries, but the Cardinals are still 12-point underdogs, making Conner (and Kyler Murray) a shaky fantasy start this week.

Washington Commanders @ Los Angeles Rams

Start: Antonio Gibson, Matthew Stafford

Gibson out-touched Chris Rodriguez Jr. 14-3 before the rookie got the last four carries in a blowout that saw Brian Robinson Jr. leave with an injury. Robinson has been ruled out following Washington’s bye, so Gibson gets a fantasy boost. Rodriguez will get carries, but the Rams have the second-highest implied team total this week, so game script should favor Gibson. He’s a PPR option if needed.

Stafford has thrown an NFL-high 10 touchdowns (with just one pick) over the last three weeks, with the last two matchups coming against top-five pass defenses. His touchdowns are regressing as hoped in a big way with Los Angeles’ skill position players finally all healthy together, as Stafford has posted an 11:1 TD:INT ratio over 152 dropbacks with Cooper Kupp and Kyren Williams on the field. Washington has allowed the most EPA/pass and the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to quarterbacks this season, so Stafford is a top-five QB this week.

Dallas Cowboys @ Buffalo Bills

Start: Jake Ferguson, James Cook

The Cowboys should have to throw plenty Sunday in a matchup with this week’s second highest total (49 points). Ferguson ranks second among all pass-catchers in targets inside the 20 and the 10; he’s seen the most targets (nine) inside the five-yard line in the league this year. He’s a top-five fantasy tight end in a Dallas offense surging since its bye.

Cook hasn’t seen higher than a 46% snap rate during any of the three games since Joe Brady took over as offensive coordinator, but the move has been a big help to his fantasy value. Cook has averaged 114.3 yards from scrimmage, 19.7 opportunities and the sixth-most RB fantasy points over that span. He still doesn’t have a role at the goal line, but Cook’s 31% target per route run rate with Brady is elite. He has a tougher matchup Sunday, but belongs in fantasy lineups while getting 20 opportunities for a top-five offense.

Baltimore Ravens @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Start: Zay Flowers

Sit: Trevor Lawrence

Flowers racked up 10 targets last week and has been seeing more looks downfield lately. The rookie will continue to be more involved with Mark Andrews out, and he gets a vulnerable Jacksonville pass defense allowing the fifth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to wide receivers this season. Flowers is a top-25 WR this week.

Lawrence deserves credit for playing through a recently suffered high-ankle sprain last week, but his three TD passes came with a 5.1 YPA mark and three picks. He’s clearly compromised by the injury and will continue to miss Christian Kirk. The Ravens have yielded an NFL-low 5.6 YPA while recording an NFL-high 49 sacks (not a bad combo!), also allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Look for alternatives for a banged-up Lawrence in a tough matchup.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Seattle Seahawks

Start: D’Andre Swift, Geno Smith

Swift has struggled in lopsided game scripts against tough run defenses over the last weeks. But expect Philadelphia to feed him Monday night coming off back-to-back losses and facing a Seattle defense that ranks 30th in success rate against the run since Week 8. The Seahawks have also allowed the second-most RB rushing touchdowns and the fifth-most fantasy points to running backs this season. Swift’s schedule really eases up moving forward after a tough stretch, so he could be a difference-maker during the fantasy playoffs.

Smith appears to be a true game-time decision in the final game of the week, so you need to monitor his status and have a plan B — Drew Lock can be used as an alternative if needed in a great matchup after looking solid last week. But if Smith is able to go, he’s a strong fantasy start this week. He is coming off his best performance of the season during his last game, and he would get a highly favorable matchup at home Monday night. The Eagles are an extreme pass-funnel defense allowing the fewest fantasy points to running backs but the most to quarterbacks this season. If you remove Patrick Mahomes (sad!), the last five quarterbacks facing Philadelphia have averaged 339 passing yards and 3.4 touchdowns.

Bump up DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Jaxon Smith-Njigba this week as well.

Games played Saturday

Minnesota Vikings @ Cincinnati Bengals

Start: Ty Chandler

Sit: Jake Browning

Chandler saw 79% of the second-half snaps last week after Alexander Mattison exited with an ankle injury. Mattison is out Sunday, so Chandler figures to get 15-18 touches against a soft Bengals run defense. Chandler will be helped by a surging Vikings defense, Nick Mullens replacing Josh Dobbs and the return of Justin Jefferson (again).

Browning threw 91 touchdown passes as a senior in high school and deserves credit for winning back-to-back games, but his fantasy production has been something of a mirage. He’s benefited from Joe Mixon getting stopped at the one-yard line three times over the last two weeks, with the QB punching in two scores at the goal line. Moreover, Browning somehow already has the most passing yards on backfield screens among all quarterbacks this season, as he owes Chase Brown for last week’s big play. Browning’s air yards per attempt would rank last in the league by a mile if he qualified.

Browning faced a couple of highly favorable matchups over the last two weeks, and the Bengals now get an incredibly stingy Minnesota D that’s allowed just one opponent to hit their implied team total over their last 10 games; Vikings matchups have averaged the sixth-fewest combined plays since losing Kirk Cousins. Browning has proven to be an above-average backup who won’t sink the Bengals offense, but he belongs on fantasy benches this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts

Start: Diontae Johnson, Zack Moss

Johnson has scored in back-to-back games and led Pittsburgh in targets last week with Mitch Trubisky starting. George Pickens has become an afterthought in the Steelers offense, and Johnson plays indoors this week against a beatable Colts secondary.

Moss has killed fantasy teams (and DFS lineups) while averaging just 7.2 fantasy points over the last two weeks. But he’s averaged 21.5 opportunities over that span, playing 92% of the snaps while getting a whopping nine carries inside the 10-yard line. Moss has four carries inside the five over the last two games and lost a 10-yard touchdown run last week thanks to a shaky holding penalty. Despite the recent outcomes, Moss should stay in Week 15 fantasy lineups with Taylor still sidelined. Pittsburgh isn’t an easy matchup, but Moss should see a bunch of volume with Michael Pittman Jr. being shadowed by Joey Porter Jr.

Denver Broncos @ Detroit Lions

Start: Russell Wilson, David Montgomery

Wilson is averaging just 200.7 passing yards this season but has benefited from sporting the third-best TD% in the league, behind only MVP candidates Brock Purdy and Dak Prescott. He’s back to running this year and should pass more than usual in a Saturday matchup indoors against a Lions offense with one of this week’s highest implied team totals. Detroit has a stout run defense but is sinking against the pass, ranking second worst in DVOA over the last five weeks. Wilson is a top-10 QB this week.

Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs continue to split touches, with the former getting more goal-line work and the rookie running more routes. Denver’s pass defense has made an incredible turnaround, and Detroit will want to hide a suddenly turnover-prone Jared Goff. The Broncos remain highly vulnerable on the ground, allowing by far the most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to running backs this season. Both Montgomery and Gibbs are top-10 fantasy backs this week.