Fantasy football rookie dynasty rankings for the 2022 draft class
The 2022 NFL draft is over, which means fantasy football managers will begin preparations for their upcoming drafts.
While there is still a lot of time before the redraft ones take place, those in dynasty leagues are already going through their rookie-only drafts. Doing so now might be a bit early, but it’s a nice little segway into preparing for the regular season. Since this is a dynasty approach, the short-term implications aren’t as much of a concern.
Rookie dynasty rankings are always fun. They are typically are met with reasonable and constructive comments.
We have no idea how these players will pan out, but given that fantasy football is a numbers-driven game, we can use historical data and a bit of subjectivity to give a range of outcomes for a certain player.
That’s what’s most important here. Instead of looking at these rookies (or any player in fantasy football) as if there is a rigid outlook, it’s best to take the approach with a range of outcome in mind.
Anything can happen with these rookies. We know that. But we are—or should be—talking about the highest probability outcome. What is most likely a player going to turn into given what we know about similar players from the past?
That’s why I’ve spent the last few years trying to build a regression model to project an incoming player’s PPR points-per-game over his first three seasons. It’s still very early in the process, and it’s likely to change as time goes on. But I feel I’m finally at a good starting point.
But I wanted you to know how I go through my rankings. It’s mostly historical data that involves draft capital, market share statistics, age-adjusted production and athletic testing. That spits out a number and then I place the players into tiers. Some subjectivity is involved based on landing spot and overall skill sets.
If you have any questions or simply want to bash me for these rankings, hit me up on Twitter (@KevinHickey11).
So without further ado, here are my fantasy football rookie rankings for the 2022 draft class:
Tier 1
Syndication: The Des Moines Register
Breece Hall | New York Jets | RB1
Just one rookie makes up this tier. I don’t think it’s really close between Hall and the rest of the class. In fact, I was a bit scared at how high the model spit out his score.
Though the landing spot isn’t ideal in New York, Hall will have a role immediately in an intriguing offense that made an effort to build around second-year quarterback Zack Wilson. Hall has everything we want in today’s NFL running back.
He has the size, speed and production of an elite player. His 2.13 best yards-per-team-play stat is the second-highest among 2022 drafted running backs. Anything above 2.0 is considered elite. He also proved his chops in the passing game.
There’s a chance Hall splits time early with Michael Carter, but the latter isn’t into the same tier of player. There should be no debate about 1.01 in rookie drafts regardless of format.
Tier 2
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Tier Overview: This tier is tough because it could technically be much bigger than these four players. The order in which the players are placed isn’t a big deal, and they are interchangeable.
Drake London | Atlanta Falcons | WR1
London has a cloudy outlook because of the quarterback situation. But he has the role to start right away at the X-receiver spot, and his production metrics were off the charts. He’s an early declare with a young breakout age and elite numbers across the board.
Treylon Burks | Tennessee Titans | WR2
Burks dominated SEC competition, but I understand the question marks. He’s not quite A.J. Brown when you get past the size comparisons. Burks isn’t a true X and played most of his snaps from the slot. His route running is very raw, but he’s an absolute tank after the catch. His age-adjusted production profile, elite size and opportunity give him an argument as WR1.
Garrett Wilson | New York Jets | WR3
Arguably my favorite wideout from this class, Wilson has it all. He’s an early declare with a strong production profile despite sharing time with other Round 1 wideouts. Going to New York isn’t great for a rock-solid situation because so much is dependent on Zack Wilson. But his game is perfect for today’s NFL, and we should see some production immediately.
Kenneth Walker III | Seattle Seahawks | RB2
Walker is a solid prospect, and his draft capital certainly boosted his score in my model. He gets pushed up a bit here due to position scarcity. My big concern is his receiving work. Can he be a productive receiver in the NFL? Absolutely. Is it likely to happen? That’s where my questions come in. We want fantasy running backs to be active in the passing game but historically, prospects with his type of receiving profile don’t hit at as high of a rate. Regardless, he’s a strong prospect with a good floor and a chance to start right away.
Tier 3
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Tier overview: As stated above, these two tiers could have been one giant tier. I didn’t want to do that so I decided that was a good breaking point. That said, I would have no qualms with anyone who argued these players belong in the tier above. All four of these players are extremely close to me.
Skyy Moore | Kansas City Chiefs | WR4
Count me in as buying the hype on Moore. Will it take time to transition from the small school to the NFL? Absolutely. But you’re not drafting Moore for his immediate production, most likely. The ceiling is what we’re chasing here. Moore’s production profile is incredible, and he’s proven to be a weapon both at the X and in the slot. I see him more as a Z-receiver, and his ceiling is as high as any receiver’s in the class.
Jameson Williams | Detroit Lions | WR5
Williams is WR1 for some analysts and I see why. The ACL doesn’t really concern me that much. His production profile was really strong even though we only have one year of it. He may get a late start due to the ACL, but Williams is worthy of a top-five pick in rookie drafts.
Chris Olave | New Orleans Saints | WR6
There are two reasons Olave is lower in my rankings. One, he’s not an early declare. That’s not a huge deal, but it does make a difference. Two, while he may be the most polished player in this draft, I have questions about his work after the catch. He’s got the speed, route running and reliable hands. I see his ceiling more as a 1b or high-end WR2, but that’s okay. He’s still a fantastic pick in the first round of rookie drafts and may even be a value.
Jahan Dotson | Washington Commanders | WR7
Dotson may be a bit underrated at this point. He wasn’t an early declare, which hurts his profile. He’s also smaller, which could limit his role. But Dotson is a dawg. He’s a gifted route runner with strong hands at the catch point and surprisingly successful work as a contested-catch artist. He might be more of a vertical slot receiver, but Dotson checks a lot of boxes.
Tier 4
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Tier overview: This is where things get shaky. It’s a mixed bag between upside and immediate impact. This is where the team-dependent aspect comes more into play.
George Pickens | Pittsburgh Steelers | WR8
Pickens may not see the field right away with Chase Claypool and Diontae Johnson ahead of him. But Johnson is a free agent after this season while Claypool struggled to improve on his rookie campaign. Pickens brings upside with his age-adjusted production and alpha abilities on the boundary. He may be more of a long-term add, but his ceiling is extremely high.
Rachaad White | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | RB3
Some have James Cook here, and I won’t argue. White is an older prospect (23) and won’t have a starting role right away. He’s a gifted pass-catcher with a solid combination of size and speed. He may never be an RB1 in fantasy football, but I like his value for teams looking to win now.
James Cook | Buffalo Bills | RB4
Landing spot and draft capital boosted Cook up the rankings. He doesn’t have a strong production profile coming out of Georgia. But he’s a strong pass-catcher with good speed. He should compete right away for a third-down role with some upside caked in because of the Bills offense.
David Bell | Cleveland Browns | WR9
A poor athletic showing disappointed a lot fantasy managers. Bell’s upside is capped because of that, but he has a strong age-adjusted production profile, secure hands and the ability to make defenders miss after the catch with his physical play style. His situation certainly bumps him up a notch due to the wide-open depth chart and being tied to Deshaun Watson for the early years of his career.
John Metchie III | Houston Texans | WR10
Metchie, like his former teammate Jameson Williams, also is working back from an ACL tear. Though I see him thriving more as a slot receiver, he should have a role right away within the Texans offense. He’s an early declare, which helps his profile, and his 2021 season gave some intriguing production metrics for us to work with. His ceiling is a bit limited, but Metchie is a solid addition at the end of Round 1 and early Round 2 of rookie drafts.
Tier 5
Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
Tier overview: This tier is more about working with upside more than anything. This is where the question marks really show up with each prospect whether it be production, age, role or situation.
Christian Watson | Green Bay Packers | WR11
Because of his elite athleticism, Watson’s ceiling is sky-high. He’s tied to Aaron Rodgers for now and has a chance to earn a starting role right away. Whether that happens remains to be seen. History tells us to wait on Watson’s production, but we haven’t really had a situation like this for a Packers rookie wideout. The upside is certainly there, but be wary of an uninspiring production profile, small school prospect and late declare status when it comes to Watson.
Ty Davis-Price | San Francisco 49ers | RB5
Kyle Shanahan just can’t help himself. Davis-Price is interesting because he’s young, has good speed and Day 2 draft capital. Fantasy managers saw the signs on the wall with Trey Sermon, and we should heed those warnings. Davis-Price is a solid pick in the second round of rookie drafts, but be wary of boosting him up too high simply because of his surprisingly high draft capital.
Brian Robinson | Washington Commanders | RB6
The Alabama product was solid in his senior season, showcasing a three-down skill set. Robinson has solid size, good speed for that size and potential to work on all three downs. He will split time with Antonio Gibson right away while both will likely give up third-down work to J.D. McKissic. There’s upside due to Gibson’s injury history for Robinson to be an early-down back. But his upside is capped to begin his career until we know more about the backfield rotation. Still, Robinson is a fine selection in the second round of rookie drafts.
Wan’Dale Robinson | New York Giants | WR12
If these rankings were purely based on production profiles, Robinson would be my WR2 overall. He checks almost every box except for the fact that he’s a wee little guy at 5-foot-8. He’s electric with the ball in his hands, and I think Brian Daboll can get the most out of him. But he enters a crowded wide receiver room and may be asked to do more gadget-type work early in his career than pure wide receiver concepts. His size is really what caps his ceiling, but Robinson is an intriguing pick in the second round of rookie drafts.
Tier 6
Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports
Tier overview: Shaky profiles and poor draft capital but there is upside with these rookies.
Dameon Pierce | Houston Texans | RB7
Historically, players with Pierce’s production profile (or lack thereof) rarely turn into anything of relevance in fantasy football. Our own Doug Farrar made the case for him being the RB1 in this class based on the film he watched. But fantasy football is a numbers-driven game. Pierce has the opportunity to take the lead role in the Texans backfield, and we know volume drives fantasy. He’s a strong pick in the second round of rookie drafts, but we should temper our expectations because his production profile means we’re betting on an outlier.
Jalen Tolbert | Dallas Cowboys | WR13
I might be too low on Tolbert. He was a Day 2 pick going to an offense that will be looking for a new WR3 after trading away Amari Cooper and letting Cedrick Wilson walk. Tolbert has an elite production profile coming from a small school as a non-early declare so there will be a transition period. But his upside is intriguing considering the landing spot, production profile and his skill set as a deep threat.
Tyler Allgeier | Atlanta Falcons | RB8
One of my favorite running back prospects in this class. Allgeier was drafted in the fifth round so we’re betting on an outlier here. But he has a three-down skill set, an elite production profile and a solid size/speed combo. He’s not a burner and will likely cede work to Cordarrelle Patterson, but Allgeier is a strong addition for teams looking for some upside at running back considering the lack of competition in Atlanta’s backfield.
Isaiah Spiller | Los Angeles Chargers | RB9
Landing spot is the only thing saving Spiller. From a production profile standpoint, I wasn’t really in on Spiller that much during the pre-draft process. Then, he didn’t test well and slipped to Day 3 of the draft. Spiller came out in my model in the 43rd percentile, but I can’t ignore the landing spot. He could easily be the Chargers’ RB2 behind Austin Ekeler, and there’s some touchdown upside if they’d prefer to use Spiller at the goal line. He’s also just 20 years old so there’s theoretically room to grow.
Tier 7
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Tier overview: This tier is all about upside and players who could potentially grow into bigger roles in their respective offenses.
Tyquan Thornton | New England Patriots | WR14
Bill Belichick is much smarter than me, but we can’t ignore the Patriots’ lack of success drafting wideouts. Thornton is a true burner, posting a 4.28 in the 40-yard dash, and he received surprising Round 2 draft capital. It was a reach, and Thornton is a non-early declare. But he has a decent production profile and elite speed. Still, we shouldn’t expect immediate production.
Khalil Shakir | Buffalo Bills | WR15
I really like Shakir as a late-round pick in rookie drafts. He may need some time to carve out a role, but he has a solid frame with strong age-adjusted production. He could compete for the WR3 role in Buffalo, but he’s more likely a long-term play.
Tyler Badie | Baltimore Ravens | RB10
The landing spot is interesting, but his late Day 3 draft capital sinks most of the hope we have for Badie. He has an elite production profile but is likely the RB3 in Baltimore to begin his career. We know that can lead to opportunities pretty quickly given the injury history of the room so I’m still intrigued with Badie late in rookie drafts.
Pierre Strong | New England Patriots | RB11
Coming from a small school, Strong was interesting because of his production profile. But landing in New England isn’t the best spot, especially considering his skill set is very similar to that of Damien Harris.
Kevin Harris | New England Patriots | RB12
New England double-dipped with Day 3 running backs. Harris had a fantastic breakout season as a junior with South Carolina, but a back injury cleared limited his senior season. He’s a tank of a back, but the upside is limited in New England.
Zamir White | Las Vegas Raiders | RB13
The opportunity might be there with White in Year 2 if Josh Jacobs hits free agency. But he’s an older prospect with a poor production profile and seriously concerning knee injuries. He does possess good size and speed, but his profile brings a lot of risk.
Alec Pierce | Indianapolis Colts | WR16
The fit with the Colts is perfect. Pierce has a chance to be the WR2 in the offense right away while his skill set as a vertical threat is intriguing. But Pierce was a non-early declare with a middling production profile. There is some upside, but we’re probably looking more at a boom/bust player.
Isiah Pacheco | Kansas City Chiefs | RB14
The backfield is crowded with Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Ronald Jones, but Pacheco has tantalizing size and speed. He has a very poor production profile but at the end of the rookie draft, he’s a player I’m targeting heavily for the upside.
Tier 8
Syndication: The Enquirer
Tier overview: We’re including these players simply round out the rankings. None of these rookies should have a role in Year 1, and it’s even unlikely they turn into anything of fantasy relevance. But an injury to a player above them on the depth chart would give them some type of relevance.
Jerome Ford | Cleveland Browns | RB15
Hassan Haskins | Tennessee Titans | RB16
Keaontay Ingram | Arizona Cardinals | RB17
Kyren Williams | Los Angeles Rams | RB18
Calvin Austin | Pittsburgh Steelers | WR17
Velus Jones Jr. | Chicago Bears | WR18
Danny Gray | San Francisco 49ers | WR19
1
1
