Fantasy Football: Is Treylon Burks a high-upside draft target in 2023?
By Brendan Darr, 4for4
Special to Yahoo Sports
Good receivers in bad offenses tend not to carry lofty fantasy ADPs. The upside is limited by the talent, or lack thereof, around them, and volume alone isn’t always enough. However, at a certain point, even alphas on a bad offense can be startable in fantasy football. Players who are drafted to be your WR3 or even WR4 can have league-winning upside.
Can they also never see a starting spot on your roster, too? Sure, can! Let’s dive into Tennessee Titans wide receiver, Treylon Burks, and figure out if WR40 in Yahoo ADP is too rich.
Reviewing Treylon Burks' rookie year
When looking back at Burks’ rookie year, it’s helpful to remember he struggled to get up to speed essentially from the moment he was drafted. He struggled with weight and asthma throughout most of the summer before dealing with injuries during the season. His final totals were 33 catches on 54 targets for 444 yards and one touchdown in 11 games played.
Burks averaged 1.8 yards per route run in 2022, per SIS, good for 38th in the league as a rookie. He was sandwiched between Nico Collins and Brandin Cooks if you are looking for a frame of reference there. His 7.7% drop rate was 16th in the league, just behind former teammate Robert Woods. The one number that was close to elite for Burks was his 15.2% Broken Tackle + Missed Tackle Rate, per SIS, which was good for 20th out of qualified receivers. So while the scheme may not be great and some of his surroundings may not be great, Burks does have the ability to break plays and his yards per route run wasn't a red flag.
I’d also like to cite Matt Harmon’s take on his route-running:
Treylon Burks was a bit of a mixed bag his rookie year but Matt and James see some similarities to an ex-Eagles WR 🦅
(@MattHarmon_BYB / @JamesDKoh) pic.twitter.com/M4lDEug2ku— Reception Perception (@RecepPerception) June 16, 2023
In total, it was a rough rookie year for the 18th overall pick. That’s not even getting into the quarterback play that he dealt with. Burks has a lot to improve on in 2023, but there is hope.
Buying the camp hype?
So far this offseason we’ve seen generally positive headlines from Burks. Thankfully, it looks like his asthma issues are in the past, or at least under control. His conditioning seems to be better from all reports, as well. He also has the benefit of having Ryan Tannehill under center to start the year instead of Malik Willis. Beyond an aging DeAndre Hopkins, the Titans also didn’t bring in much, if any, competition for targets. They released Robert Woods and Austin Hooper, and only added Hopkins, WR Chris Moore in free agency, Josh Whyle, TE out of Cincinnati, in the fifth round, and Colton Dowell, WR out of UT-Martin, in the seventh round.
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Woods and Hooper were the only players on the team to see more than Burks’ 55 targets and both are gone now. WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and TE Chigoziem Okonkwo are the only other players on the team to see more than 16 targets returning this season. Okonkwo is probably the only real threat on the team for targets beyond Burks and Hopkins, and even then, Chig won't lead the team. So the opportunity and volume for Burks will definitely be there in 2023, even in a lower-volume passing offense. He should realistically double his targets — assuming Malik Willis or an emergency QB like Josh Dobbs doesn’t see multiple starts.
Will we see Levis?
The upside for Burks comes with Tannehill under center, even in a rush-first offense, and with his own limitations, Tannehill provides a starting-caliber quarterback who can make enough plays to keep his top receiver in the WR2 conversation. A.J. Brown finished as WR24 in fantasy points per game in 2021. While that’s not quite a league-winning upside, getting WR2 production out of someone you drafted to be your WR3 or WR4 certainly helps.
That’s the ceiling case. However, there is a real possibility things will go south again for Tennessee, even in a weak AFC South, and the coaching staff brings in second-round pick, QB Will Levis. Personally, I wasn’t high on Levis, but that’s not as important as the league passing on Levis in the first round. At one point, he was the betting favorite to go No. 2 overall in the draft and not only did that not happen, he had to wait until Day 2.
Rookie quarterbacks tend to struggle, and rookie quarterbacks who aren’t first-round picks have an even bigger learning curve in the league. An already low-volume passing attack would likely lean heavily on RB Derrick Henry and backup Tyjae Spears if Levis were to take over at quarterback for Tannehill. That would obviously be a massive hit to the fantasy prospects of Burks and the rest of the pass catchers.
The Bottom Line
Burks had a disappointing rookie season that’s a cause for real concern. However, his conditioning and health both seem to be improved in 2023.
Burks has a chance to be the 1B to Hopkins' 1A in a low-volume Titans passing attack with little competition.
As long as Ryan Tannehill is starting, he has the upside to finish as a WR2.
In a 4for4 staff expert mock draft, Burks went as WR32 in pick 10 of Round 6. If I didn't reach for Trevor Lawrence, I had planned on taking Burks at 6.6.
The looming threat of Will Levis is the only thing holding me back from aggressively drafting Burks at his current ADP.
This article originally appeared on 4for4.com
Brendan started playing fantasy football in middle school and still maintains the first league he started with. While in dozens of leagues outside of the friendly confines of the original office conference room where the first draft was held, nothing will ever mean more than the Needwood League. While covering DC sports in print and on the radio, the local teams continuously let him down, but fantasy football and DFS have always been there for him. He started contributing fantasy football articles to The Washington Post and NBC Sports Washington before eventually joining up with NumberBall.com on the editorial side, but his passion was always on the content side. He joined 4for4 in August of 2022 as an analyst.
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