Fantasy Football Fact or Fluke: Forget rough starts for Justin Fields, Ja'Marr Chase
I don’t know about you, but one of the toughest things for me to do is change my mind. When I get ahold of an idea, I cling to it for all I’m worth. I’ll move heaven and earth to see a good plan through rather than admit defeat. I’m a little better when I know there’s inherent uncertainty ahead. I may have my beliefs, but they’re not set in stone. For example, I, like many others, thought the Giants, Jets, Jaguars and Bears were going to usher in a new era of fantasy heroics in 2023. I also thought individuals like Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tony Pollard would continue their fantasy domination or for Jahan Dotson and Drake London, break through to the next level this season. I’ve been surprised to see two very different Dallas Cowboys teams through five weeks, and to a lesser extent, two different Buffalo Bills teams.
After Week 1, we can say things like “not enough preseason action” or “rusty.” After fantasy performances continued to plummet in Weeks 2 and 3, we got nervous:
“Am I going to have to admit I was wrong?!?”
“Are those defenses really that good?”
I’ve said this before, but this reaction point is where people diverge. Some throw in the towel and move on, benching Justin Fields and Breece Hall, while others stubbornly refuse to give up, perhaps knowing the Broncos are coming.
Without getting too technical, the skill – yes, it can be practiced – of going with the flow, taking things as they come, rolling with the punches as they say, is called Cognitive Flexibility and it’s something we should all strive for. It’s associated with good mental health and is one of the first things to deteriorate in many brain diseases and disorders. The good news is that fantasy football gives us ample opportunity to put the practice into action.
Week 5 showed us that at least some of our preseason assumptions might not have been too far off. It’s easy (and a relief) to say “OK, now things are right with the world” and carry on like this is the new normal, but that almost certainly isn’t the case for everyone.
This week I’m going to spotlight the players and teams that have finally showed up for the 2023 fantasy season, with the hope of deciphering what will stick and what will inevitably crumble again. As much as I hate to admit it, I know I’ll be humbled again by the NFL’s unpredictability this season.
Cincinnati Bengals
It should not take a Tee Higgins injury for Ja’Marr Chase to finally be the effective focal point of the Bengals offense. With 15 catches on 19(!) targets for 193 yards and three touchdowns, Chase was untouchable in Sunday’s win over Arizona with 44.70 points and a WR2 finish. It was only his second "usable" fantasy effort — 12 catches for 141 yards on 15 targets against the Rams in Week 3. Joe Burrow went over 300 passing yards for the first time and Week 5 marked only the second game in which Burrow threw for any score. Joe Mixon posted his highest usage with 25 carries and four targets. He still has yet to break 100 combined yards and scored only once in the Week 3 win over the Rams, but he’s at least been consistent at just under 11 fantasy points per game (RB18).
While these performances from Burrow and Chase helped many win their week’s fantasy matchup, how much can we attribute to matchup and how much to Burrow’s calf healing or Higgins’ absence? Arizona entered Week 5 as the sixth-best QB matchup, giving up the ninth-most overall fantasy points to opponents. They now rank fourth against quarterbacks and fourth overall. Considering earlier matchups that resulted in their managers dwelling in the fantasy dungeon – Cleveland and Tennessee – Arizona was a dream come true. Up next is a home battle with Seattle, which despite being on bye in Week 5 still ranks as the third-best wide receiver matchup and fifth-best overall matchup for fantasy. Week 7 is the Bengals’ bye, after which they get the 49ers and Bills, which is going to be a rough stretch.
As for Burrow, he didn’t throw his highest number of passes in Week 5 (46, exceeded in Week 3 with 49 attempts), but he was by far his most accurate, completing 78% of them. He also upped his average yards per attempt by a couple of yards to 6.9, which was still only the 18th-highest mark for Week 5. Burrow’s managers will gladly take any signs of improvement, trust me. It makes sense to give Higgins until after the bye to fully heal his ribs, which should open the door to another blockbuster Chase performance in Week 6. Overall, I’m allowing a bit of hope back into my heart for the Bengals thanks to this bounce-back game and their proven track record of fantasy goodness.
Chicago Bears
The Bears laid the groundwork for major cognitive dissonance in Week 4’s loss to Denver where, despite losing the game, Justin Fields, DJ Moore, Cole Kmet and Khalil Herbert all turned in swoon-worthy fantasy performances (thanks, Broncos!). Given how Weeks 1-3 turned out (Moore had 11 total catches, Kmet averaged 34.7 yards per game, Herbert failed to score but did fumble once), people were understandably skeptical about starting Kmet, Moore, Herbert and even Fields for Week 5 despite another great on-paper matchup with Washington.
We lacked the brain power and emotional fortitude to believe in the Bears, then not believe, then believe again on the basis of a single good game. Which begs the question: Are two sequential good showings a trend? Is the arrow pointing straight up for the Bears’ pass game?
I’m optimistic about Week 6 against Minnesota, another team that finds itself among the most fantasy-friendly matchups this season. Coming off back-to-back four-touchdown games, Fields is now QB5 in fantasy points per game and should be in all lineups this week. Ditto Moore and Kmet, who is the TE2 on the season.
The running back situation in Chicago is rough, with Herbert expected to be out multiple weeks and Roschon Johnson in the concussion protocol. With only D’Onta Foreman as a backup, the Bears should continue to rely on the pass game against the Vikings. After that, the good news continues. Given their own defensive woes, this is a team that benefits fantasy managers the most when they find themselves in good matchups. Starting in Week 7, the Bears get the Raiders, at Chargers, at Saints (a tough one), Panthers, at Lions and at Vikings again for an overall favorable schedule and fantasy outlook.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars have done a great job of surrounding Trevor Lawrence with talent at the skill positions, adding Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Evan Engram and drafting Travis Etienne. Yet Lawrence is struggling to make the elite leap many expected, with a season-best finish as QB8 in Week 1 marking his only Top 12 finish.
Even though the Jaguars beat the Bills (and Falcons) in London, Lawrence is falling short of the hopes his QB7-8 ADP inspired. Ridley put up great numbers in Weeks 1 (8/101/1) and 5 (7/122), while Kirk was the lone bright spot in Week 2 against the Chiefs. Zay Jones is a touchdown-dependent wild card at best, but he is unlikely to be helpful in the coming weeks as he reaggravated his knee injury against Buffalo. Etienne is one of the steals of the draft, coming into Week 6 as RB4 in half-PPR scoring and trailing only Christian McCaffrey in carries (95). He’s been better than expected in the receiving department, too, with the fifth-most catches and sixth-most receiving yards among running backs.
Although individuals in this offense have been up and down, matchups haven’t played a crucial role, with Ridley and Kirk putting up their best performances against Buffalo and Kansas City, respectively. Week 6 brings a rematch with the Colts, where Lawrence and Ridley got us excited to kick off the season. After that, the schedule gets a little tougher, traveling to New Orleans and Pittsburgh before a bye, then home games against the 49ers and Titans on tap. In most 12-team leagues, Ridley, Kirk and Etienne are every-week starters, but quarterbacks like CJ Stroud, Brock Purdy and Jared Goff — who were available much later in — are outproducing Lawrence by a good amount every week. I’d rather start Purdy and Goff over Lawrence this week, though I still prefer Lawrence over Stroud, who faces a tough Saints defense.
New York Jets
It’s easier to accept the difference between our preseason expectations and the Jets’ reality because we have a cause — Aaron Rodgers’ injury in the first minutes of the season. Week 4 showed us that all may not be lost when it comes to Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson, however. Garrett Wilson impressed from the get-go with his acrobatic touchdown against Buffalo, but Zach Wilson’s inaccuracy (61.8% completion) has hindered his production. Actually, Zach Wilson is one of a few quarterbacks with a higher actual completion percentage than expected, a feat that can be attributed in part to Garrett Wilson’s extreme athleticism.
The Jets wide receiver also ranks seventh in targeted air yards share (44.7%), which is the best news for his managers. In Week 6, he'll get Philadelphia’s generous pass defense (second-most fantasy points allowed to WRs) with a favorable game script combining to make him a must start. Unfortunately, that means that Breece Hall might be in for a tough run, as Philly boasts that classic funnel defense that is giving up the fewest fantasy points to running backs. Hall put up next to nothing against New England or Dallas, so it wouldn’t be wild to consider reasonable alternatives to Hall on a light bye week. Some of Kyren Williams’ managers are certainly hoping they had done so last week!
Atlanta Falcons
Despite planning to deploy a positionless, run-heavy offense, the Falcons have largely gone the way of Desmond Ridder since seemingly abandoning that plan after it worked well in Week 1. In the victory over Carolina, Tyler Allgeier and Bijan Robinson both worked to get the ball in the end zone, with Ridder accounting for only 115 yards and a score on 18 pass attempts while the backs added 177 total yards and three scores. Since then, Ridder has attempted at least 31 passes per game, finally exceeding 300 passing yards and tallying both passing and rushing touchdowns in the Week 5 win over Houston. He did the same during the Week 2 slim win over Green Bay, though with only 237 passing yards. London is the clear target hog in this receiver group and is the only one to account for any receiving touchdowns (two). Though Kyle Pitts has out-targeted Jonnu Smith, Week 5 was his first decisive fantasy contribution (7/87 on 11 targets) of the season.
The upcoming matchup with Washington should be a friendly one for everyone, but I especially like it for London, Pitts and Ridder. Not that anyone should bench Robinson, but the on-paper DvP data from FantasyData says Ridder and London will be in the best spots to succeed. I’m buying the Falcons offense for Week 6, but need to see them do it consistently before fully committing.
