Fantasy Football Conviction Picks: Week 6 predictions to count on

Our analysts reveal the fantasy football takes they have the most conviction for heading into Week 6 to help you feel better about the lineup decisions ahead. For more sit-start advice, check out our rankings hub.

Lamb cracks 20 fantasy points for first time this season

It’s a tall ask to restore faith in any of the Dallas Cowboys' skill players following the disaster that was Week 5. However, this week, the Cowboys will face the Los Angeles Chargers' secondary, which leads the league with a whopping 40 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers. Contributing to those fantasy points are the yards the secondary has been hemorrhaging, giving up 232 receiving yards per game and 15.7 yards per reception to the position. CeeDee Lamb leads the Cowboys with seven targets per game, catching passes at a career-high 77.1% clip while ranking 14th among wide receivers with 358 yards. The biggest limitation to his fantasy production to date has been a lack of touchdowns, but a game against the Chargers could be the cure. They've allowed six TDs to opposing wideouts through just four games. — Kate Magdziuk

Ferguson about to become a hot commodity

The Dallas offense has been a difficult watch for several weeks, but I’m going to stick with the positive indicators tied to Jake Ferguson. He’s getting boatloads of red-zone targets (up to 11 now) but has just one touchdown; that’s going to fix itself soon. And the Chargers present a plus matchup this week; they’ve been below average at seam coverage. Take this Ferguson recommendation anywhere you can — trade for him, start him, DFS ($15), props. The stock hasn’t exploded yet, but that still feels inevitable. — Scott Pianowski

We can still trust Cousins without Jefferson

Without question, the rest-of-season projection for Kirk Cousins is a bit murky while Justin Jefferson is sidelined by a hamstring injury. But you can still feel fully confident starting Cousins in Week 6, when he faces a Chicago defense that’s allowed the second-most fantasy points to opposing QBs. Fantasy luminaries such as Baker Mayfield (317-1), Jordan Love (245-3), Russell Wilson (223-3) and Sam Howell (388-2) have already produced big games against the Bears' overmatched pass defense. Jefferson is obviously an enormous loss, but there’s still talent remaining in the Vikings receiving corps. Kirk’s streak of multi-touchdown games should survive another week. — Andy Behrens

Fields makes it a third straight monster game

After passing for 99 yards in Week 3 against the Chiefs and looking hardly like an NFL quarterback before a national TV audience (and Taylor Swift), Justin Fields has passed for 617 yards and eight touchdowns in the last two weeks combined. His weekly finishes were QB3 and QB1, and he’s the QB3 on the season. Talk about a turnaround. Fields is also ready to do it again.

Up next are the Vikings, who are 23rd with 1,305 passing yards allowed and are 26th in fantasy points per game allowed to the position. Three quarterbacks have thrown for multiple touchdowns against this defense, and one of them, Justin Herbert, went off for 405 yards passing. Keep in mind that the Bears are last in passing yardage allowed and fantasy points allowed, so Fields having to pass a lot is very much in the forecast. Book him for another 300 yards and a couple scores. — Jorge Martin

Mostert ready to carry Dolphins' ground game

Raheem Mostert is set for extra work Sunday with De’Von Achane out with a knee injury. The Dolphins are huge favorites and have the highest implied team total this week. Carolina is a run-funnel defense allowing the most EPA/rush and the second-most fantasy points to running backs. Miami’s offense has looked historically explosive (getting two yards per play more than the next best team), and the run game has benefited greatly. Mostert smashes this week and finishes as a top-three fantasy back. — Dalton Del Don

Kyren Williams in bounce-back spot

Last week, we warned that Williams was in the sketchy spot. He had a brutal matchup against the Eagles' top-ranked defensive line. This led to his worst game of the season, with 15 touches for 57 scoreless yards.

But Williams still saw elite usage. He played 85% of the snaps and handled a season-high 92% of the carries. This translated to him seeing 14 of the 15 RB opportunities (93%). He continues to have one of the best roles for fantasy.

This week, the Rams are 7-point favorites at home against the Cardinals. Arizona allows the fifth-most points to opposing RBs and the fourth-most receptions. This fits right into Williams' skillset as he ranks third in RB targets this season. Expect Williams to finish as a top-10 back this week. — Sal Vetri

Godwin in perfect situation to go off

The stars are aligning for a monster Chris Godwin week. The Bucs' wideout turned in his best game of the season ahead of the team's bye in Week 4 at New Orleans. I’m not sure he’s 100% back to the old Godwin just yet, but he looks a bit better against man coverage so far this season.

Tampa Bay draws a matchup with the Lions' defense, which has turned into a sneaky pass funnel. Detroit ranks fifth in rushing success rate allowed but just 16th in dropback success rate allowed. Despite Aiden Hutchinson and an underrated defensive front’s efforts, that could continue to slide with injuries continuing to hit the secondary. All that is no problem for the Bucs. They’re one of the worst rushing teams in the NFL, ranking dead last in yards per carry. Expect to see Baker Mayfield dropback a ton in what could be a high-scoring game, and with Mike Evans dealing with a hamstring injury, Godwin should be the focal point of the game plan. He could push for 10 to 12 targets in this contest. — Matt Harmon