Fantasy Football 2023: Quarterback salary cap draft rankings tiers
For years, we've talked about the quarterback disconnect between real-life and fantasy football. NFL life is all about the quarterback. Fantasy football is about so many things before the quarterback. Often it has downshifted to the fourth-most important position on draft day.
Perhaps those days are gone for good. It's never been easier to throw in the NFL, the position has become more athletic and more run-friendly and the quarterback scoring is going through the roof — at the top of the position. If you cull the top points-per-game seasons from quarterbacks all time, the top 13 of them are in the 2000s. And 7-of-11 of those super seasons landed in the last four years. None of the names will surprise you — Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen. These are the cover boys, the MVP favorites, the faces of the NFL.
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The idea behind late-round quarterback hunting was the idea that the second, third and fourth waves at QB wouldn't be that far behind the first wave, so let's attack the position with fewer resources. I suppose it's possible that maybe you can find a breakout quarterback who's mispriced by the fantasy market — maybe. Obviously, the names in the previous graph were league-altering picks the first season they exploded. Nonetheless, as this position starts to become more top-heavy, I've shifted into a more proactive mindset as I fill the quarterback slot.
Oh, I'll never be taking them in Round 1, and Round 2 is also too pricy for me (assuming this isn't a Superflex format). After that? Season to taste, amigos. Season to taste.
Pass the salt.
The Big Tickets
$34 Patrick Mahomes
$32 Josh Allen
$32 Jalen Hurts
$29 Lamar Jackson
$29 Joe Burrow*
$28 Justin Fields
$28 Justin Herbert
$27 Trevor Lawrence
Mahomes might hit the sweet spot for running, just enough to augment his production, but not so much that you worry about it bringing on extra injury risk. The Chiefs wide receiver room is once again suspect, but Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Andy Reid are enough to build a formidable passing attack . . . I wonder at what point the Bills will pull back from Allen's goal-line rushing, realizing he's the one irreplaceable player they have and there are safer ways to punch in scores from in close. In the playoffs, OK, play with your hair on fire. It really doesn't make sense in a September or October game against some .500 opponent . . . Jackson gets an offensive makeover at the right time, a beefed-up receiver room and a new offensive coordinator in Todd Monken. He's ready for another MVP run . . . Herbert is also an interesting option this year; surely the Chargers can't be as injury-unlucky as they were last year, and the Bolts also added some interesting outside pieces . . . Burrow has always been a proactive pick for me, never more than this season. He's working with a superstar receiver and perhaps the best No. 2 wideout in the league, the line looks capable and an ordinary running game might push Cincinnati to pass more than usual. Burrow is also likely to punch in four-to-five touchdowns on the ground. (I attached an asterisk to Burrow's ticket, and pushed him down $1, after he suffered a calf strain on July 27. He's expected to miss multiple weeks of summer work, but the Bengals are still optimistic he can be ready for the opener.)
Legitimate Building Blocks
$24 Dak Prescott
$23 Tua Tagovailoa
$21 Deshaun Watson
$20 Daniel Jones
$18 Kirk Cousins
$18 Geno Smith
$17 Aaron Rodgers
$16 Jared Goff
$16 Russell Wilson
After missing almost two full seasons, Watson's poor play from late last year probably needs to be thrown out. The Browns have solid offensive infrastructure, and this is the year we'll find out if Watson still has stardom in him. I can't say he has a floor, but I can't ignore his upside, either . . . Cousins had stunningly ordinary efficiency metrics last year despite the presence of Justin Jefferson, perhaps the league's best receiver. Perhaps Cousins was playing hurt, as was discussed after the year, but we're also talking about a non-running veteran entering his age-35 season. The Vikings need another offensive piece to step forward if Cousins is going to stay inside the QB12 cutline — in other words, a weekly starter — this year . . .
[2023 Salary Cap Rankings Tiers: QB | RB | WR | TE]
If you look at Smith and worry about pumpkin risk, I get it. But Smith actually outplayed Russell Wilson during the 2021 season in Seattle, and the Seahawks added another exciting receiver (Jaxon Smith-Njigba) to go with reliable holdovers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Smith had some pedigree coming into the NFL, but almost everything fell wrong for him in his New York days. I expect the Seahawks to have a plus offense again . . . Rodgers is a mercurial cat, but he's getting a city change at the right time, and Garrett Wilson is headed to the moon. Tom Brady had a career revival in Tampa Bay. Brett Favre's first year in Minnesota was a blast. Rodgers can give us at least one more Pro Bowl season.
Talk Them Up, Talk Them Down
$13 Matthew Stafford
$13 Derek Carr
$11 Kenny Pickett
$10 Jordan Love
$10 Kyler Murray
$9 Brock Purdy
$8 Bryce Young
$8 C.J. Stroud
$6 Sam Howell
$5 Mac Jones
Whenever Richardson ascends to the top of Indy's depth chart, he'll become instantly fantasy-viable on his rushing chops alone. And head coach Shane Steichen was the man responsible for the Hurts breakout in Philadelphia; he knows how to scheme for a mobile quarterback . . . Pickett showed poise throughout his rookie year and there were flashes of greatness in the last quarter of the season. We've been spoiled in the last couple of decades with quarterbacks who are great right away; don't hold it against Pickett if he needs a more deliberate path for development. The Steelers have a good receiver room, too, as they usually do . . . Murray is tied to perhaps the worst roster in the NFL, and he's become reluctant to run as injuries have piled up. DeAndre Hopkins is no longer a dominant wideout, but the Cardinals will miss him, obviously. Murray probably won't show up on any of my rosters . . . Purdy immediately shifts into double-digits if he wins the Niners job, which looks like a given right now.
Bargain Bin
$2 Trey Lance
$1 Will Levis
$1 Sam Darnold
