Fantasy football 2022: Top 10 busts to avoid in your draft

·5 min read

Fantasy football 2022: Top 10 busts to avoid in your draft originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

Now that we've covered the top 10 sleepers to target in your 2022 fantasy football draft, it's time to highlight the players you should avoid.

Few things are worse than buying into a player's preseason hype, only for them to underperform and derail your fantasy season. That's why it's important to ignore the noise and identify players who are being overvalued based on their average draft position (ADP).

Fantasy football draft kit 2022: Position rankings, cheat sheets and more

The question is, how can you tell if a player is being overvalued? There are a number of factors to consider, including their injury history, team situation, offensive line, and surrounding talent such as a quarterback for a wide receiver and vice versa. Before you decide to draft a player with an early pick, you'll want to ask yourself: are they in a position to carry your team to a fantasy championship?

With all of those factors in mind, here are 10 potential busts to avoid for the 2022 fantasy football season, based on their current ADP.

Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals (Bye Week: 13)

Murray was an MVP favorite for the first half of the 2021 season but his production fell off a cliff toward the end of the year. This is becoming a trend for the Cardinals quarterback, and that's a giant red flag given his unreliability in the fantasy playoffs. He's being drafted as a top-five fantasy QB due to his allure as a rusher, but his rushing numbers decreased significantly in 2021 compared to 2020. Murray's rushing attempts dropped from 133 to 88, yards from 819 to 423, and touchdowns from 11 to five.

To put the icing on the cake, Murray's No. 1 target DeAndre Hopkins will miss the first six games of the campaign due to a suspension. Consider him a low-end QB1, not an elite option at the position.

Cordarrelle Patterson, RB, Atlanta Falcons (Bye Week: 14)

Patterson was a league-winner for plenty of fantasy owners last season. The jack of all trades became the Falcons' top running back and tallied more than 1,100 total yards from scrimmage. He'll have a chance to duplicate his efforts as the top RB on the depth chart this year, but don't count on it with quarterback Matt Ryan out of the picture.

Darren Waller, TE, Las Vegas Raiders (Bye Week: 6)

We won't blame you for snagging Waller as your tight end. He's clearly one of the most talented players in the NFL at the position. We will blame you, however, if you select Waller at his current ADP of No. 47 overall.

Raiders QB Derek Carr has a shiny new toy in former college teammate Davante Adams. Carr also built a rapport with Hunter Renfrow last season, taking even more targets away from Waller. There will be some monster weeks from Waller this season, but we doubt there will be enough consistency to warrant an early draft pick.

Dawson Knox, TE, Buffalo Bills (Bye Week: 7)

Knox enjoyed a breakout season as one of Josh Allen's go-to targets in 2022. The 25-year-old caught 49 passes for 587 yards and a whopping nine TDs. Those are rock-solid numbers for a fantasy tight end, but relying on him to be your go-to guy in 2022 is risky business. It's more likely than not that lofty TD total was an anomaly. If so, you'll regret investing in Knox at his current ADP of No. 101.

Amari Cooper, WR, Cleveland Browns (Bye Week: 9)

There's no denying Cooper's talent, but he's the perfect example of a big-name player whose fantasy stock will suffer due to his team situation. The Browns will be without quarterback Deshaun Watson for at least the first six games of the 2022 season. Cleveland's offense could be a serious mess, so it's best to stay clear of Cooper in the early rounds.

J.K. Dobbins, RB, Baltimore Ravens (Bye Week: 10)

Dobbins did not play in 2021 due to an ACL tear. The former Ohio State star appears good to go for Week 1, but we wouldn't count on him to be anything more than a solid flex play this season. There's simply too much competition for carries in the Ravens backfield with Gus Edwards, Mike Davis, and rookie Tyler Badie in the mix. You're asking for trouble if you select Dobbins at his current ADP of No. 52.

Josh Jacobs, RB, Las Vegas Raiders (Bye Week: 6)

Jacobs hasn't quite lived up to his first-round draft pick status and it's hard to believe that will change in 2022, especially under Josh McDaniels. The former New England Patriots offensive coordinator will look to air it out with Davante Adams joining Hunter Renfrow and Darren Waller as Derek Carr's top targets. We'd pass on drafting Jacobs this season, especially in PPR formats.

Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins (Bye Week: 11)

Hill has the potential to win a fantasy football week by himself, but his status as a true WR1 is in question heading into his debut season in Miami. He'll have to adjust to a major quarterback downgrade from Patrick Mahomes to Tua Tagovailoa. That alone makes him a risky pick if you're relying on him to be your top wideout.

Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints (Bye Week: 14)

Thomas was unstoppable in 2019, but he's hardly seen the field since and can't be counted on to stay healthy in 2022. He also won't have Drew Brees as his quarterback, and he'll have competition for targets with Jarvis Landry and rookie Chris Olave in the fold. Thomas is a high-risk, potentially high-reward pick at his ADP of No. 69.

DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks (Bye Week: 11)

This also applies to Metcalf's teammate, Tyler Lockett. The Seahawks quarterback situation is a mess with Geno Smith and Drew Lock competing for the starting job. While Metcalf and Lockett are two of the most talented wideouts in the league, we'd avoid them at all costs in fantasy drafts unless a significant quarterback upgrade is made before the season.

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