Fantasy Baseball: Yes, the Rays have been even better than you thought
With a wealth of data under his belt, fantasy baseball analyst Dalton Del Don shares some observations everyone should know.
• Nick Lodolo had been one of the five best starting pitchers to open 2023 before Tuesday’s blowup against the Tampa Bay Rays, who scored six runs in the first inning of the next game. Don't worry about Lodolo, as this Tampa Bay offense has been the best in baseball by far. The Rays entered Wednesday (before another offensive eruption) with a 157 wRC+. The second-best offense was at 124. The Dodgers were first last season at 119.
Tampa Bay is sure to regress, but the team currently has the best offense by a mile and the lowest FIP in all of baseball — and one of their best players hasn't even seen the field yet.
• I drafted Yandy Díaz many seasons hoping he’d increase his launch angle, so it’s fitting he’s finally bumped it two-fold this year after I’d finally given up. He’s maintained the same terrific plate discipline only now with far more power potential (his HH% is in the top-4% of the league).
Eligible at first and third and hitting leadoff for a Tampa Bay offense that’s scored 30+ more runs than any other team, Díaz looks far more like a winning fantasy pick than someone to try to sell high.
• TJ Friedl remains available in over 85% of Yahoo leagues despite batting second in a lineup that calls home baseball’s second-best hitter’s park. Only Coors Field has increased run scoring more than Great American Ballpark (+23%) over the last three seasons when it’s also boosted home runs for left-handers an MLB-high 63%!
Friedl is batting .311/.382/.508 despite facing the toughest pitching+ among all hitters this season. The homers and steals have been modest so far, but THE BAT X projects Friedl to record 26 HR/SB in fewer than 100 games, rest-of-season.
• Mason Miller is an intriguing prospect with a triple-digit fastball who’s getting an opportunity in Oakland’s starting rotation sooner than expected. He’s worth adding in fantasy leagues regardless of Wednesday’s outcome, although pitching for the A’s hurts his chances at wins. Miller had a 19:0 K:BB ratio over 8.2 innings in two starts across Double and Triple-A to open the season, and he'll be trying to improve an Oakland rotation that ranks last in most pitching categories, including an almost unbelievable 8.82 ERA and 1.83 WHIP. Miller is available in nearly 70% of Yahoo leagues. He has real upside.
• The Twins have one stolen base this season. Meanwhile, Nico Hoerner is on pace to swipe 91 bags after recording just 20 over 500+ plate appearances in 2022. Runners should be awarded a steal when a pitcher fails during their third pickoff attempt, right?!
• Aroldis Chapman and José Alvarado have a combined 0.68 ERA, 0.60 WHIP and a 20:2 K:BB ratio to open the season. Scott Barlow (5.60 FIP), Seranthony Domínguez (6.16 FIP) and Craig Kimbrel (5.45 FIP) have struggled mightily, so both aforementioned lefties look like the clear best options to close (or use in high-leverage situations) in Kansas City and Philadelphia, respectively.
Alvarado is sporting a -0.96 xFIP, while Chapman leads all pitchers in CSW and is averaging his highest fastball velocity (99.9 mph) since 2017.
• Is Cody Bellinger back? Cutting his K rate nearly in half compared to last season is a good start. Bellinger once hit 47 homers, stole 15 bags in a season and is still just 27 years old. I should’ve been higher on him entering the year.
• Jarren Duran is a deep fantasy sleeper available in 98% of Yahoo leagues. He wasn’t immediately called up after Adam Duvall’s injury because Boston faced a stretch of left-handers (which also contributed to Triston Casas’ dreadful start).
Still, Duran will get another chance in Boston’s lineup regularly against righties. He’s struggled during earlier opportunities with the Red Sox, but Duran has 70-grade speed and could be a sneaky source of 25+ stolen bases moving forward.
