Should fantasy baseball managers be weary of George Kirby? | Baseball Bar-B-Cast

Yahoo Sports senior MLB analysts Jordan Shusterman and Jake Mintz are joined by fantasy baseball analyst Dalton Del Don for a debate on the Mariners starting pitcher's value ahead of the 2024 season. Hear the full conversation on “Baseball Bar-B-Cast” podcast - and subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you listen.

Video Transcript

JORDAN SHUSTERMAN: One guy, though, that I know you're a little bit lower on, and this is where, again, the fantasy versus real life value might kind of diverge, is George Kirby. This is someone who as far as a Cy Young, breakout, sleeper context, people are blowing this guy up. Oh my God, he's the best strike thrower in baseball and he's part of this amazing Mariners pitching staff. Where do you kind of see George Kirby and why are you less enthused about him, at least in a fantasy context?

DALTON DEL DON: So fantasy managers love him. They're drafting him as a top 10 fantasy starter, ahead of my guy, Tyler Glasnow. Some people even have the temerity to do that. Listen, Kirby was great last year. There's no question about it.

But ERA just can fluctuate so, so much, and I just worry that a guy that misses so few bats, he could have some problems here if this walk rate does regress some. Kirby's 2.5% walk rate last season was the best by a starter in 10 years, since 2014. So that's going to be tough to sustain.

Again, drafted as a top 10 fantasy starter, despite ranking 29th in CSW and 30th in K percentage. So projections have him as a low 8K guy, ERA in the high 3's. It would not surprise me if Kirby finishes like the third or fourth best starter in Seattle.

I mean, Jordan, you just wrote about Bryce Miller. What if that cutter gets lefties out and neutralizes them? I think guys like Miller have more fantasy upside than Kirby, who goes way, way early. Drafting him as a top 10 starter is just based off last year's results in the ERA department and I worry that, that can fluctuate so much year-to-year.

JAKE MINTZ: And I would imagine Kirby's ERA number, that's going to be a lot more dependent on Seattle's defense. Jordan, do you think that's taken a step back or a step forward with all the turnover they've had on the offensive side?

JORDAN SHUSTERMAN: Ooh, that's an interesting question. I would say it's probably-- Man, third base is a pretty big question mark right now. And Polanco, again, they're trusting a lot in Perry Hill to sprinkle his infield defense pixie dust on Jorge Polanco and the guys who are going to be playing at third base. I agree that the defense is a bigger component.

And I'm glad you mentioned that, because the one thing I would push back on from you Dalton is this, is who George Kirby is from a strike throwing standpoint. This dude walked, like, three people in college. If anybody is going to sustain this absurd level of control, it is him. But I think your point about the missing bats is where, again, if we broaden this out to a Cy Young conversation, I do think that the ERA is going to be fluctuating, because he is leaving more up to contact.

At the same time, when you see his ability to adjust, his ability to add pitches on the fly, whether it's a splitter, whether it's a knuckleball, whether it's something else, I could see him finding ways to get more whiffs. But I totally understand that he is probably overrated as long as the strikeouts are more of a 9 K's per 9 versus a 10 or 11 or 12, like you're seeing with guys like Glasnow, or even Bryce Miller that we'll see. So I'm totally with you on that, but I do not expect regression from a command standpoint. I mean, maybe he doesn't have a historic season in terms of throwing strikes, but I do think George Kirby is going to continue to be the best strike thrower in baseball. So that's a good one.