Fantasy baseball auction values: LABR draft experts set the bar for 2024
CLEARWATER, Fla. – The news rippled through the hotel ballroom like a toxic red tide.
Ronald Acuña Jr. had an appointment with one of the world’s most renowned surgeons for a consultation on his sore knee.
Coming off the greatest single season in fantasy baseball history, Acuña was a virtual lock to be the most popular (and expensive) player in the League of Alternative Baseball Reality draft. And that afternoon’s news was not what the participants wanted to hear.
In putting up the first 40-homer, 70-steal season in baseball history, Acuña racked up an astounding $60 in Roto value last year in NL-only leagues. If healthy, he’d be almost certain to surpass the all-time LABR record of $50 for a single player.
After Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto went for $26 and Padres outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. reached $38, Acuña was the next name called.
The bidding passed Tatis, but then inexplicably went silent. Defending NL champions Rick Wolf and Glenn Colton of SiriusXM Radio rostered the best player in baseball for a mere $40. The move looked even better a few days later when Dr. Neal ElAttrache confirmed Acuña didn’t have a serious injury and the Braves said he should be ready for opening day.
OF Ronald Acuña Jr. was seen by Dr. Neal ElAttrache in Los Angeles last night, who confirmed irritation in the meniscus of his right knee. Acuña Jr. is set to gradually increase baseball activities and is expected to be ready for Opening Day.
— Atlanta Braves (@Braves) March 5, 2024
Acuña's unexpected impact
The Acuña discount had a dramatic effect on the rest of the draft, depressing the prices to roster other elite players even further. The bidding for top infield options Freddie Freeman, Mookie Betts, Trea Turner and Austin Riley all stopped at $35.
(Adding to the unpredictability in the room was the absence of National Fantasy Baseball Championship founder Greg Ambrosius, who stepped aside this season after being part of LABR for each of its previous 30 seasons. In addition, former AL LABR champ Ian Kahn and NBC Sports’ D.J. Short were not able to attend in person, so they were represented by Ariel Cohen of the Beat the Shift podcast and Jesse Roche of Baseball Prospectus.)
So where did the extra money go?
Relief pitchers took up a major chunk. Ten of the first 24 players nominated were closers, with Edwin Diaz ($24) and Devin Williams ($22) leading the way, and the rest falling in the $15-$20 range.
More resources ended up being transferred to the middle class, and while some nice bargains slipped through the cracks – Paul Goldschmidt for $20, Ketel Marte and Merrill Kelly for $15 – inflation made things difficult for several of the teams looking to build balanced rosters.
Factoring in risk
Acuña wasn’t the only player who came with a little extra risk attached. Unsigned free agents are fair game in LABR, but if they sign with a team in the other league, they must be cut immediately.
Pitchers Blake Snell ($6) and Jordan Montgomery ($3) and slugger J.D. Martinez ($3) didn’t generate as much interest as they did in the AL auction the previous night.
Meanwhile, Mets pitcher Kodai Senga, who’s been shut down for three weeks due to a shoulder strain, went for $6. The Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw, who hopes to be back after the All-Star break, was a $5 buy.
My USA TODAY team took a chance early on one of this year’s most polarizing players, Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz, landing him for what I felt was a discounted $24 as my first hitter. Shortly afterward, I added Kyle Schwarber for $23 and Shohei Ohtani for $34, leading one of the other team owners to quip that I must be looking to “lead the league in exit velocity.”
(In a sense, he was right. I decided fairly early to punt batting average and focus on homers, steals and pitching.)
Outfielders continued to be in high demand into the late stages of the draft. With several people still sitting on unspent funds, bidding wars surprisingly emerged for the likes of Jarred Kelenic ($17), Jack Suwinski ($17) and Sal Frelick ($15).
NL prospects abound
In the end, those remaining dollars made sure even unproven prospects required a slight premium to roster. Among them:
OF Jackson Chourio: $15
3B Michael Busch: $8
SP Paul Skenes: $7
SS Jackson Merrill: $7
SS Jordan Lawlar: $6
SS Joey Ortiz: $6
OF Victor Scott: $6
OF Pete Crow-Armstrong: $5
SP Max Meyer: $5
2B Tyler Black: $5
OF James Wood: $2
MLB’s new rules that encourage teams to promote their minor leaguers earlier in the season seems to be having its intended effect. With the success last year of youngsters Corbin Carroll, Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, Eury Perez and the tantalizing talents of De La Cruz, fantasy managers might be even more willing than ever before to take chances on newcomers with high-upside potential.
Royals create quite a rumble in AL LABR
A trio of newcomers added a dose of unpredictability to the League of Alternative Baseball Reality this year, taking the American League auction on a delightful detour from its traditional middle-of-the-road course.
The first curveball of the evening came on the very first pitch, when defending champion Jason Collette of FanGraphs threw out Royals pitcher Cole Ragans for the opening nomination.
Ragans – one of the most highly touted players at Baseball HQ’s First Pitch Florida conference – drew claps of approval from the attendees in the audience, but not as much from the drafters on stage. Before I knew it, he was a member of my USA TODAY team at $18 and the auction was off and running.
Fellow Royal Bobby Witt Jr. generated much more excitement, eventually going to Boston University professor Andy Andres – one of three LABR rookies in the AL draft – for a league-high $45.
In most auctions, the best players usually get nominated first. But that wasn’t the case this time, as the veterans at the table may have been looking to gain a mental edge over the newcomers – Chris Clegg of Rotoballer, Chris Towers of CBS Sports and Andres, who teaches a class at BU entitled “Sabermetrics 101.”
Zigging to the extreme
Along those lines, Andres could have used an Economics 101 lesson as he blew through a big chunk of his bankroll early to roster OF Juan Soto ($40), 3B Jose Ramirez ($35) and 1Bs Triston Casas ($22) and Yandy Diaz ($18).
By the end of the draft, Andres spent $237 of his $260 budget on hitting – one of the most extreme splits since the days of Larry Labadini’s legendary $9 pitching staff.
Price of the Yankees
On the other hand, there were no surprises when it came to several New York Yankees stars being at the top of the AL market.
Reigning Cy Young award winner Gerrit Cole was the league’s most expensive pitcher at $34, followed by a clear second tier of Corbin Burnes ($28), George Kirby ($27), Luis Castillo ($26), Kevin Gausman ($26) and Pablo Lopez ($26).
On the hitting side, the excitement surrounding Juan Soto’s move to the Bronx made him one of only four players to reach the $40 mark, joining Witt, Julio Rodriguez ($43) and Kyle Tucker ($40).
Fellow Yankees slugger Aaron Judge wasn’t far behind, though, at $39. And interestingly, Mike Trout dropped below $30 in AL LABR for the first time since his rookie year in 2012, as I landed him for a mere $25.
The most expensive hitters at other positions:
Catcher: Adley Rutschman, $28
First base: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., $32
Second base: Marcus Semien, $30
Shortstop: Witt, $45
Third base: Ramirez, $35
Bidding wars turned up in some unexpected places.
Shortstop Vaughn Grissom bounced back and forth before finally going to Todd Zola of Mastersball for $19 – topping other middle infielders such as Zack Gelof ($17), Trevor Story ($16), Brandon Drury ($16), Jeremy Peña ($16), Carlos Correa ($14) and Jorge Polanco ($14).
In addition, the need for speed was evident in the battle to roster A’s jackrabbit Esteury Ruiz, who led the AL with 67 stolen bases a year ago. Only nine other outfielders were more expensive to roster than Ruiz, as the bidding went all the way up to $23.
Mid-tier outfielders in general were pushed up higher than expected, while prices on first basemen seemed fairly cheap. Only Guerrero and Casas topped the $20 mark at the position.
Youth is served
The AL has several talented prospects looking to break into the majors this season. And AL LABR has several talented prospect-watchers who were more than ready to bid on those youngsters.
In fact, Clegg, Towers, RotoWire’s James Anderson and Baseball Prospectus’ Jesse Roche were all sitting together at the draft table – ramping up the in-auction dynamics when those prospects were nominated.
Most 2024 prospect lists have either Rangers outfielder Wyatt Langford or Orioles shortstop Jackson Holliday ranked No. 1 overall.
Both were highly prized in this AL auction, with Anderson getting Langford for $16 and Holliday going to Towers for $15.
Other top prospects:
3B Junior Caminero, $7 (to Roche)
3B Colt Keith, $7
3B Coby Mayo, $5 (Roche)
1B Kyle Manzardo, $4
SS Darell Hernaiz, $2 (Clegg)
SP Ricky Tiedemann, $2
SP Jackson Jobe, $1
2B Justin Foscue, reserve
SS Colson Montgomery, reserve (Clegg)
SS Brooks Lee, reserve (Roche)
OF Chase DeLauter, reserve
OF Roman Anthony, reserve
SP Will Warren, reserve (Clegg)
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Fantasy baseball auction values 2024: LABR draft experts set the bar
