Fantasy Baseball 2023 Draft Prep: Where consensus starting pitcher rankings are wrong
ECR stands for “Expert Consensus Ranking,” which means the average ranks of the fantasy baseball industry and is typically similar to ADP (which differs from site to site). This will be an ongoing positional series highlighting some big differences between ECR and my own ranks.
Our focus today is where consensus rankings are wrong on starting pitchers. I also recently covered five infielder and five outfielder rankings I disagree with.
Pitchers I like more than consensus
Dustin May, Los Angeles Dodgers (No. 50 starting pitcher in ECR vs. DDD’s No. 25)
May struggled with command, as most pitchers do when returning from Tommy John, but was sneaky good last season. He should be even better now, another six months removed from surgery. May possesses some of the best stuff in baseball, is finally healthy and is in a terrific situation for fantasy. His workload will be somewhat limited, but many questioned Corbin Burnes’ ceiling two years ago, and he proceeded to win the Cy Young with a dominant 165 innings.
Tony Gonsolin just won 16 games over 130 innings last year with the help of L.A.'s run support and defense. Put differently, Gonsolin finished with the fifth-most wins in baseball despite pitching the 89th-most innings and not being top-25 in K rate. May, on the other hand, was recording a 31.2% K-BB% before the 2021 injury; last year’s K-BB% leader among all starting pitchers finished with 26.5%. May looks like an absolute fantasy steal.
Brady Singer, Kansas City Royals (No. 53 starting pitcher in ECR vs. DDD’s No. 34)
Singer was a remarkably similar pitcher to last year’s NL Cy Young winner, Sandy Alcantara — only Singer’s younger and with better peripherals. He was especially dominant in the second half and should continue to get better with further development of his changeup. Team context certainly does Singer no favors, but at least Kauffman Stadium has decreased homers by 18% the past three seasons, and recording wins wasn’t a problem last year. Singer could emerge as a true ace in 2023.
Tyler Glasnow, Tampa Bay Rays (No. 40 starting pitcher in ECR vs. DDD’s No. 29)
Glasnow has arguably the best stuff among all starters in baseball right now. But he’s barely being drafted as a top-40 fantasy SP after suffering an oblique injury, though there’s a real chance he ends up throwing the same 150 innings or so, as always planned. In fact, manager Kevin Cash said Glasnow will no longer be mad at him for pulling the pitcher early in games, so the injury could actually help Glasnow's chances at recording wins. I don’t love drafting into injuries, but Glasnow’s is an oblique, and his arm is entering the coveted honeymoon phase after Tommy John surgery. Volume remains in question, but I’d be surprised if he isn’t one of the three best starting pitchers when on the mound this season. Glasnow is Jacob deGrom-lite and going nine rounds later in NFBC Main Event drafts.
Pitchers I like less than consensus
Sandy Alcantara, Miami Marlins (No. 4 starting pitcher in ECR vs. DDD’s No. 15)
Alcantara deserves credit for being a workhorse, but realize volume was a big reason he won the Cy Young award last year. He’s averaged just 11.5 wins despite averaging 217.0 innings the past two seasons, and that fantasy category figures to remain a problem while he still pitches for the Marlins. Moreover, Alcantara’s peripherals are good but hardly elite, including a modest 8.2 K-rate last season. Simply put, his team prevents him from racking up wins, and his low strikeout rate could lead to a real ERA spike with the no-shift rules; Alcantara induced by far the most grounders during a shift among starters last season. There are many ways to get hitters out, but pitchers who rely less on strikeouts are far more vulnerable to fluctuation in ERA.
Alek Manoah & Chris Bassitt, Toronto Blue Jays (No. 19 & 46 SPs in ECR vs. DDD’s No. 24 & 73)
Manoah and Bassitt are fine pitchers but have shown decreased velocity throughout the spring. Both also have the unfortunate hurdles of pitching in the AL East and in a Toronto park with new dimensions that look like a launching pad. It's possible the velocity readings for Blue Jays pitchers have been misleading, but Bassitt in particular goes from one of baseball’s best pitcher’s parks in New York to what appears to be one of the more favorable places to hit in new-look Toronto. He has experienced a notable drop in spin rate this spring as well.