Fantasy Baseball: Seiya Suzuki and six other priority rookies to start — or stash
The first and most important thing we can tell you about drafting rookies in your fantasy baseball leagues is that you definitely should not overindulge.
We're talking about a pool of high-variance players who might succeed spectacularly or faceplant with disastrous results. For every Jonathan India, there's at least one Jarred Kelenic. Ideally, you won't draft your way into a predicament in which you desperately need one or more rookies to immediately thrive.
But we also can't simply ignore the first-year guys because, when they actually break out, these players tend to deliver the greatest profit for fantasy managers relative to ADP. With this in mind, today you're getting a list of prospects/rookies who I have actually selected in early drafts (or who I'm keeping in dynasty).
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This should not be considered some sort of comprehensive prospect ranking; rather, it's just a small group of players I've personally targeted and rostered.
Let's begin with a buzzy name who finally chose a team ...
Seiya Suzuki, OF, Chicago Cubs
Just for the record, I'd already drafted Suzuki in three industry leagues before the Cubs agreed to terms with him on Wednesday. It's tough for me to say where his ADP will ultimately land, because, um ... well, I haven't yet allowed anyone else to get him. I can tell you that I grabbed him enthusiastically in Round 14 in RazzSlam (12 teams), Round 10 in TGFBI (15 teams) and Round 13 in Tout Wars (12 teams).
Suzuki isn't your standard rookie, obviously, because he's basically a lock to play immediately and, at 27, he's in his prime right now. He's hit at least 25 homers in each of his last five seasons in Japan, including 38 last year. These blasts aren't wall-scrapers, either:
Seiya Suzuki hits the 150th home run of his career to give the Carp the lead. pic.twitter.com/sd6eNSko4H
— Jason Coskrey (@JCoskrey) April 24, 2021
He's also an on-base machine (.402 career OBP) who slashed .317/.433/.636 over 538 plate appearances in 2021, walking as often as he struck out (88 BB, 89 Ks). His bat should play just fine. Suzuki is just one season removed from swiping 25 bags, so he has the potential to help fantasy managers across all categories.
Julio Rodriguez, OF, Seattle Mariners
Seattle's outfield is loaded following the acquisition of Jesse Winker, so please don't ask me when Rodriguez will actually arrive. Just know that he was an almost perfect hitter in the minors in 2021, slashing .347/.441/.560 across two levels with power and speed. He's gonna force the issue, soon. He was hardly challenged last year. Still, given the talent already in Seattle's outfield, this is gonna be a draft-and-stash situation.
🇩🇴 Another Home Run from Julio Rodriguez 💪 💪 💪
🇩🇴 DOM 11 – 3 NCA 🇳🇮 #RoadToTokyo #Tokyo2020@FedobeRD @probeisbolrd pic.twitter.com/WNFF4GyCVG— WBSC ⚾🥎 (@WBSC) June 2, 2021
Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Kansas City Royals
After last year's spring buzz surrounding Witt, it was endlessly frustrating that he spent his entire season in the high minors. There are few open questions about the 21-year-old's ability to crush minor league pitching at this point. He went 33/29 last season while hitting .290/.361/.576 and the jump to Triple-A Omaha didn't knock him off stride. Here's hoping Witt is the opening day third baseman.
Shane Baz, P, Tampa Bay Rays
In case you'd forgotten what a problem Baz was at the end of last season, here you go:
Shane Baz, 97mph Fastball and 86mph Breaking Ball, Overlay/Tails. pic.twitter.com/Gs01UhKT2S
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 2, 2021
He struck out 113 batters over 78.2 innings in the high minors last year while delivering a 0.80 WHIP, then whiffed another 18 hitters in 13.1 frames for Tampa (0.68 WHIP). Baz routinely reaches the high-90s and he has a vicious four-pitch arsenal. We may only get 130-or-so innings, but those innings should be of the highest quality. You want him.
Roansy Contreras, P, Pittsburgh Pirates
Contreras made substantial velocity gains last season, vaulting up the prospect ranks. He struck out 82 batters in 58.0 minor league innings, walking 13 and producing a 0.93 WHIP. His late-season big league cameo went extremely well, as he struck out four and issued one walk in 3.0 scoreless innings. Contreras has a real shot to spend the full year in Pittsburgh, where he'd pile up Ks (if not wins).
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He's more than simply a flamethrower; his breaking stuff is kinda evil, too:
Roansy Contreras, Nasty 85mph Slider. 😨 pic.twitter.com/BVS60rcJTK
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 30, 2021
Spencer Torkelson, 3B, Detroit Tigers
The former ASU star and first overall pick in the 2020 draft spent last season crushing baseballs at all levels of the minors:
Spencer Torkelson has a 2-HR game with every MiLB team he's played for!@wmwhitecaps: May 29@erie_seawolves: Aug. 12@MudHens: Tonight! ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/FuTK9odmQE
— Minor League Baseball (@MiLB) September 1, 2021
Torkelson finished with 30 homers among his 61 extra-base hits, drawing 77 walks in 121 games while slashing .267/.383/.552. He's recovered from an ankle issue suffered in the AFL (where he went 9-for-20 with eight walks), so no worries on that front. Detroit's vets are clearly impressed by the kid. He's a threat for a 30-homer rookie season.
Oneil Cruz, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
In Cruz's major league debut late last year, this gigantic shortstop prospect (6-foot-7) produced the hardest-hit ball ever recorded in the Statcast era by a Pittsburgh batter (118.2 mph). In his second game, he crushed his first big league home run:
ONEIL CRUZ JUST HIT HIS FIRST MAJOR LEAGUE HOME RUN!!! pic.twitter.com/PIMMswXDYl
— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) October 3, 2021
So it's not as if Cruz struggled to adjust to the big stage. Whenever he's with the Bucs full-time, he's gonna be a fun watch. Cruz slashed .310/.375/.594 in the high minors last season with 17 homers and 19 steals in just 68 games, so he's a potential five-category weapon upon arrival.