Falcons’ No. 4 overall pick has lost some value
The Falcons were expected to entertain trade offers for their No. 4 overall pick, and on Tuesday, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that Atlanta is indeed fielding offers and open to moving out of the top five. While the team did see a temporary rise in value after the 49ers’ trade, once the Jets sent Sam Darnold to the Carolina, it eliminated a possible trade partner in the Panthers since the team no longer needs a quarterback.
Over the past 11 drafts, 15 teams have traded up in the first round to select a quarterback. By using the Rich Hill draft value chart, we can see the average in value that each team gave up. Typically, the team trading up overvalued the draft pick by 20 points. Additionally, teams moved up an average of eight spots, from No. 21 to No. 13.
Given the Darnold trade, it is more plausible to assume that Denver is comfortable sitting at No. 9 and willing to take whatever quarterback falls to them. Cincinnati, Miami, Detroit and Carolina are the teams drafting in between the Falcons’ No. 4 selection and Denver’s No. 9 pick. The only real threat here to take a quarterback is the Lions.
Also, Denver may not believe the rumors that the Falcons are in the midst of an internal power struggle between head coach Arthur Smith and general manager Terry Fontenot. The Broncos don’t want to overvalue the No. 4 pick if there’s a legit chance Atlanta doesn’t go quarterback — the only reason they would consider trading up.
Not only is staying at No. 9 more plausible, Denver had already been in talks with Carolina over Teddy Bridgewater before the Panthers’ trade with the Jets. Bringing in Bridgewater would give Carolina some veteran competition behind Darnold. This is another knock to the value of the Falcons’ No. 4 selection.
The Patriots are still in the equation, but if they too don’t believe the rumors surrounding Atlanta’s pick, then they can sit back and hope a top-five quarterback falls in their lap. New England is a team that over the years has moved down, not up.
Atlanta went from having the hottest spot on the market to possibly being left to settle with the No. 4 pick, either taking a luxury pick or reaching for a need. There’s still plenty of time to work out a deal with the draft still three weeks away.
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List
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