What to expect from the Lightning at NHL trade deadline

TAMPA — Lightning general manager Julien BriseBois sees assembling a Stanley Cup-contending roster as a 365-day process. So, to him, the trade deadline is a prime opportunity to improve his team not only for this season but also beyond.

He’s dealt many first-round picks over the years, and while the fruits of his labor reside in back-to-back championships his current obstacles include a depleted trade-chip inventory, a payroll with 71% committed to six stars, and the annual loss of several key players due to salary-cap constraints.

Still, BriseBois remains firmly in the now.

The Lightning’s star core won’t be here forever, so he will do what he can to help push the team toward another deep playoff run. If he doesn’t complete a deal before Friday’s 3 p.m. deadline, it won’t be because he didn’t think it was worth the risk, but because he didn’t find the right offer.

“For me, nothing is off the table,” BriseBois recently told the Tampa Bay Times. “For me, a deal that makes sense is a deal that makes sense. Obviously, for it to make sense the payback would have to be commensurate to what we give up — or ideally, less than what we’re getting.”

The Lightning enter this week still fighting for their playoff lives. They aren’t as deep or dominant as the teams that raised the Cup in 2020 and ‘21, and other Eastern Conference teams have closed the gap.

There are multiple ways to improve the team right now. It can use depth scoring, a little more sandpaper, a left-shot defenseman to fill the hole created by the injury to Mikhail Sergachev. Whether BriseBois can make the team good enough to get back to the final for the fourth time in five years remains to be seen.

“He’s shown before with the moves he’s made, and we trust him fully in what he thinks is the best for the team,” defenseman Victor Hedman said. “If it’s nothing or if it’s adding pieces, we can only control what we have in here. But yeah, this is the time of the year when things are going to go down, and the sooner the better to get guys acclimated to the new teams. We’ll see what happens, but yeah, exciting times.”

The top prize on most trade-target boards is Calgary’s Noah Hanifin, a 27-year-old, two-way defenseman who reportedly would love to call Tampa Bay home both now and after this season. Making that work won’t be easy, but a left side with Hedman and Hanifin — and potentially Sergachev if the Lightning go deep in the playoffs — unquestionably would make them a tougher out.

How do Lightning approach the deadline?

Last season, BriseBois sent defenseman Cal Foote and five draft picks to Nashville for physical forward Tanner Jeannot, who remained under team control as a restricted free agent. He then acquired forward Mikey Eyssimont from San Jose for Vladimir Namestnikov.

The Lightning moved quickly to re-sign Eyssimont, who was an unrestricted free agent, and he’s become a major player for the team. Jeannot also signed a two-year deal in the offseason but has struggled to stay healthy. He has just 12 points in 42 games and has a plus/minus of minus-11.

Moving forward, the roster faces unique obstacles. Losing Ondrej Palat and Alex Killorn was tough. But face of the franchise Steven Stamkos is an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season, and Hedman will enter the final year of his contract next season. The team has to figure out if the two biggest franchise cornerstones since Marty St. Louis and Vinny Lecavalier can remain career-long Bolts.

That might lead one to believe the Lightning will target a rental, like when they acquired David Savard from Columbus in 2021 in a three-team trade that cost them first-, third- and fourth-round picks. But BriseBois’ mentality has been clear over the years: Make the team better now, figure out the rest later. So there is every reason to believe Tampa Bay will be in the mix for players with existing contract terms or who they believe they can keep beyond this season.

The impact of Sergachev’s injury

BriseBois would much rather have Sergachev than the long-term injury buffer his absence creates. By all projections, The defenseman won’t be back this season unless the team goes on a long playoff run. But his injury creates a much larger pool of potential trade candidates, because placing him on LTIR allows the team to acquire a player with a cap hit of nearly $7.4 million.

Without that, the Lightning would be in a money-in, money-out situation. That was the case last season, when they had to move the contracts of Foote and Namestinikov to fit Jeannot and Eyssimont under the cap.

If the Lightning are able to go big — say, acquiring Hanifin — a postseason blue line featuring Hedman, Hanifin and Sergachev (there is no cap in the playoffs) would give them the best left side since the team traded Ryan McDonagh after the 2021-22 season.

But don’t assume the Lightning’s wish list is topped by a left-side defenseman. In recent years, BriseBois’ goal has been acquiring players — regardless of position — he feels will make Tampa Bay tougher to play against, help it protect leads and make it harder to beat in the postseason.

What kind of market will emerge?

The trade market has been slow heading into the final week before the deadline, which could work in BriseBois’ favor. Earlier this week, the Stars didn’t have to give up a first-round pick to acquire Flames left-shot defenseman Chris Tanev, dealing a second-rounder, a former second-round prospect and a conditional third-rounder. Calgary also retains half of Tanev’s remaining salary before he becomes an unrestricted free agent.

A player like Hanifin will demand more, of course, but it’s a promising development for the Lightning, especially since they don’t have a first-rounder to trade until 2026.

Because Tampa Bay doesn’t have much draft capital to work with — it has only have a third-rounder in the first four rounds this summer — some of its recent top picks are among its most attractive assets. Those include 2022 first-rounder Isaac Howard, who starred for Team USA in the world juniors and is averaging a point a game at Michigan State.

Last summer’s second-round pick, center Ethan Gauthier, is another promising prospect who is in the middle of a second straight 30-goal season in the QMJHL. But the Lightning would prefer not to have to move either player, because they are big pieces of the franchise’s future.

There are many pieces that could fit for the Lightning.

If the surging Predators go into sell mode, defenseman Alexandre Carrier is a strong two-way player who can skate and doesn’t make mistakes. He’s a restricted free agent but carries just a $2.5 million cap hit. He could be a cost-effective option moving forward and the second most-experienced defenseman on the right side, despite being only 27.

The Capitals’ Nic Dowd is 33 but a cheap ($1.3 million) forward option with one year remaining on his contract who wins puck battles and interrupts passing lanes. Veteran forwards like Anaheim’s Frank Vatrano ($3.65 million, one year remaining) and San Jose’s Anthony Duclair ($3 million, pending UFA) could add scoring punch to middle-six lines.

“I’m always looking big picture,” BriseBois said. “If you look at all the deals we’ve done, they always had one way for it to pay off for more than just 40 days.”