Every playoff scenario for the NFC South in Week 18
The NFC South has been a division of ups and downs all year. Now, in Week 18 of the 2023-24 NFL season, everything will come to a head.
Believe it or not, the top three members of the NFC South all still have a chance of winning the division. For some, like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, that chance is very high — it involves beating the 2-14 Carolina Panthers with no other strings attached. For others, like the Atlanta Falcons, the NFC South crown would require a number of different things to happen in order to see them on top. All in all, there are seven different scenarios that can occur in Week 18, with each crowning an NFC South champion and sending one of those three teams to the playoffs.
If all goes right for the Bucs, they shouldn’t have to worry about any of this — win and you’re in. But things start to get a little wonky if they lose or tie the Carolina Panthers on the road in Charlotte:
Bucs beat Panthers
No ifs, ands or buts here — if the Bucs beat the Panthers, they become NFC South champions and they’re in the playoffs, regardless of what happens in the game between the Saints and the Falcons. Tampa Bay would finish at 9-8, and even if the Saints also finish at 9-8 by beating the Falcons, the Bucs would hold the tiebreaker over common opponents. For brevity’s sake:
If the Bucs beat the Panthers, the Bucs are NFC South champions and make the playoffs. The Bucs would finish at 9-8, and even if the Saints were to beat the Falcons and end the year with the same record, the Bucs would hold the tiebreaker as they do right now.
Bucs lose to Panthers
This is where it gets interesting.
If the Bucs lose to the Panthers, then they are out of the playoffs. They are unable to make it as a wildcard team and would be immediately eliminated from playoff contention. For the most part, the winner of the Saints and Falcons game will subsequently determine the NFC South champion, with one weird caveat. Here are the three scenarios that can occur for the NFC South should this happen:
If the Bucs lose to the Panthers and the Saints beat the Falcons, the Saints are NFC South champions and make the playoffs. The Saints would be 9-8, with the Bucs at 8-9 and the Falcons at 7-10.
If the Bucs lose to the Panthers and the Falcons beat the Saints, the Falcons are NFC South champions and make the playoffs. All three teams would end up at 8-9, with the Falcons taking the division with a 3-1 combined record over the Bucs and the Saints.
If the Bucs lose to the Panthers and the Saints and Falcons tie, the Saints are NFC South champions and make the playoffs. This would be because the Bucs would end up 8-9, the Saints 8-8-1 and the Falcons 7-9-1, giving the Saints the best record of the three.
Bucs and Panthers tie
There have been no ties in the NFL this year, so most of the scenarios I am about to present to you will almost certainly not happen. Regardless, they are scenarios, so here’s what could go down if the Bucs and Panthers happen to end overtime with the same score in Week 18:
If the Bucs and Panthers tie and the Saints and Falcons tie (which would be a hilarious statistical miracle), the Bucs are NFC South champions and make the playoffs. This makes sense, because the standings would remain entirely the same and the Bucs are currently at the head of them as it stands.
If the Bucs and Panthers tie and the Saints beat the Falcons, the Saints are NFC South champions and make the playoffs. The Saints would be at 9-8, the Falcons at 7-10 and the Bucs at 8-8-1, so the Saints would hold the best record in the NFC South.
If the Bucs and Panthers tie and the Falcons beat the Saints, the Bucs are NFC South champions and will make the playoffs. The Bucs would be 8-8-1 and the Saints and Falcons would both be 8-9, with the Bucs then holding the best win percentage in the division.
