ESPN suggests that Colts should trade down in first round
ESPN’s Bill Barnwell recently went through each team’s first-round selections and determined whether they should trade up, trade down, or stay put. For the Colts, Barnwell thought it would be best for them to move down from pick 15.
Here is what Barnwell had to say about the potential move:
“Most mock drafts have the Colts projected to add defensive help, either up front or at cornerback. While the top of Round 1 is almost all offensive players, the middle is more uncertain. The Seahawks, Jaguars, Bengals and Rams all have needs on both sides of the ball and could go in either direction, which would leave Indy in an uncertain position.
“GM Chris Ballard typically has preferred to trade down and amass picks in the first two rounds, most notably when he picked up three second-round picks as part of the Sam Darnold trade with the Jets ahead of the 2018 draft. This also hasn’t been a team that values cornerback as a premium position, so going after one in Round 2 seems more likely than targeting one in the top 15.”
Ultimatley, how the board falls and how the Colts have evaluated the available prospects at that time will be the determining factor in whether this move is made. But where things currently sit, this is a move that could make sense for a few reasons.
For one, it’s not as if the Colts have a ton of draft capital, and this would provide them with the opportunity to accumulate more. With seven total draft picks, only four teams have fewer selections than the Colts. In terms of draft capital value, which you can read more about here, the Colts rank 21st.
Also, with where the strengths of this draft lie along with what the Colts’ needs are, there’s a strong chance that when they are on the clock, they will have several options available to them–and that, of course, is conducive to trading down.
If it were up to me, if either Quinyon Mitchell or Terrion Arnold were available, I’d make that pick. However, if both are off the board by pick 15, likely still availalbe at cornerback are Cooper DeJean, Nate Wiggins, and Kool-Aid McKinstry. Wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. could still be on the board in what is a very deep receiver class, as could tight end Brock Bowers, and potentially edge rushers Jared Verse and Laiatu Latu.
Now, chances are not everyone I just mentioned will still be available for the Colts, but if some combination of three or four of those players are, then again, moving back would make sense because Chris Ballard would have options–something every GM desires in the draft.
I recently ran through five different scenarios for the Colts if they were to trade down from pick 15, trying to get an idea of what they could get in return using the trade value chart. At a minimum, starting with pick 18 from Cincinnati, the Colts should be able to add a top-100 pick to what they already have.
In Ballard’s tenure as GM, when moving around the board, he has often preferred to trade down and accumulate draft capital as opposed to trading up.
