ESPN’s matchup predictor projects the Oklahoma Sooners 2023 season
Though the 2023 season is still months away, we’re getting an early look at what some of the national observers think about the Oklahoma Sooners in their final season in the Big 12.
Last week we took a look at College Football News schedule prediction for the Oklahoma Sooners and yesterday, it was ESPN’s win projections for the Big 12 after the Football Power Index update.
With the FPI update, let’s take a look at the win probabilities for the Oklahoma Sooners from ESPN’s matchup predictor.
Things are looking pretty optimistic.
Sept. 2: Arkansas State (Norman)
Dec 29, 2022; Orlando, Florida, USA; Oklahoma Sooners running back Gavin Sawchuk (27) runs with the ball against the Florida State Seminoles in the second quarter during the 2022 Cheez-It Bowl at Camping World Stadium. Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 96.7%
All-Time Series: 2-0
Projected running record: 1-0
The Oklahoma Sooners will be eager to start the season on a high note after the way the 2022 season went and the Arkansas State Red Wolves provide a great opportunity to do so. Arkansas State allowed 31 points per game in 2022.
Sept. 9: SMU Mustangs (Norman)
Sep 11, 2021; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners defensive back Billy Bowman (5) in action during the game against the Western Carolina Catamounts at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 86.3%
All-Time Series: Oklahoma 5-1-1
Projected running record: 2-0
SMU took a step back after Sonny Dykes left for TCU, but they’re a program on the rise in recent years. The Sooners’ defense will be tested, but Oklahoma should handle the Mustangs.
Sept. 16: Tulsa Golden Hurricanes (Tulsa)
LUBBOCK, TEXAS – NOVEMBER 26: Jalil Farooq #3 of the Oklahoma Sooners celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Texas Tech Red Raiders at Jones AT&T Stadium on November 26, 2022 in Lubbock, Texas. (Photo by Josh Hedges/Getty Images)
Skelly Field at H.A. Chapman Stadium (Tulsa)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 93.8%
All-Time Series: Oklahoma 20-7-1
Projected running record: 3-0
With former offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson at the helm, Tulsa provides a unique challenge for Brent Venables, Ted Roof, and the Oklahoma Sooners defense.
Sept. 23: Cincinnati Bearcats (Cincinnati)
Oklahoma’s Danny Stutsman (28) celebrates a sack on Kent State’s Collin Schlee (19) in the third quarter during the college football game between the University of Oklahoma and the Kent State Golden Flashes at the Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Sept., 10, 2022. Bryan Terry, The Oklahoman
Nippert Stadium (Cincinnati)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 75.5%
All-Time Series: Oklahoma 2-0
Projected running record: 4-0
Oklahoma’s first road trip of the season takes them to one of the more underrated atmospheres in the country in Nippert Stadium. Over the last few years, as the Bearcats have found success, Cincinnati’s fan base has created a great college football environment. They’ll be buzzing to welcome the Sooners to Ohio for the first time since a 31-29 loss to Oklahoma in 2010.
Sept. 30: Iowa State Cyclones (Norman)
AMES, IA – OCTOBER 29: Quarterback Dillon Gabriel #8 of the Oklahoma Sooners scrambles for yards past defensive back Anthony Johnson Jr. #1 of the Iowa State Cyclones in the first half of play at Jack Trice Stadium on October 29, 2022 in Ames, Iowa. (Photo by David Purdy/Getty Images)
Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 84.7%
All-Time Series: Oklahoma 79-7-2
Projected running record: 5-0
Oklahoma has dominated the all-time series. While Iowa State’s defense has improved, they won’t have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Sooners at home.
Oct. 7: Texas Longhorns (Dallas)
Cotton Bowl (Dallas)
Oct 12, 2019; Dallas, TX, USA; Oklahoma Sooners linebacker Jon-Michael Terry (40) and linebacker Kenneth Murray (9) tackle Texas Longhorns quarterback Sam Ehlinger (11) during the first half at the Cotton Bowl. Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Predicted Winner: Texas
Sooners Win Probability: 35.4%
All-Time Series: Texas leads 63-50-5
Projected running record: 5-1
Texas will be the perceived favorite leading up to the Red River Showdown in Dallas. This game will be a return to the close ballgames the Sooners and Longhorns have played over the years and it will be the last one under the Big 12 banner.
Oct. 14: Bye Week
Quarterback Jackson Arnold goes through drills as the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) college football team holds spring practice outside of Gaylord Family/Oklahoma Memorial Stadium on March 21, 2023 in Norman, Okla. [Steve Sisney/For The Oklahoman]
Getting to the bye week 5-1 isn’t a bad start to the season. Texas is going to go into this game as the favorite, but as we’ve seen in years past, anything can happen in the Red River Showdown.
A loss stings. Still, the Sooners are set up for a great finish to the season if they can avoid slip-ups the rest of the way.
Oct. 21: UCF Knights (Norman)
Dec 29, 2022; Orlando, Florida, USA; Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Dillon Gabriel (8) runs the ball against the Florida State Seminoles during the second quarter in the 2022 Cheez-It Bowl at Camping World Stadium. Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports
Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 78.6%
All-Time Series: First Meeting between the two teams.
Projected running record: 6-1
Dillon Gabriel against his former team in UCF’s lone trip to Norman? This one should be fun.
Oct. 28: Kansas Jayhawks (Lawrence)
Oct 15, 2022; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners running back Eric Gray (0) runs with the ball as Kansas Jayhawks safety Marvin Grant (4) chases during the first half at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium (Lawrence)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 85.4%
All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 80-27-6
Projected running record: 7-1
Lance Leipold and Jalon Daniels have Kansas playing the best football they’ve played in more than a decade and this one could spell trouble for the Sooners if the defense hasn’t improved.
Nov. 4: BEDLAM - Oklahoma State (Stillwater)
Boone Pickens Stadium (Stillwater)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 70%
All-Time Series: Oklahoma leads 91-19-7
Projected running record: 8-1
There’s no telling when Oklahoma and Oklahoma State will rekindle their rivalry after this year’s Bedlam matchup. Stillwater will be buzzing, hoping to send the Sooners off with two losses in the last three matchups on their way to the SEC.
Nov. 11: West Virginia Mountaineers (Norman)
Sep 25, 2021; Norman, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma Sooners safety Delarrin Turner-Yell (32) makes an interception during the first quarter against the West Virginia Mountaineers at Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 90.9%
All-Time Series: 11-3
Projected running record: 9-1
Oklahoma’s defense played well in Morgantown but couldn’t hold up down the stretch in the one game the offensive faltered with Dillon Gabriel under center.
Nov. 18: BYU Cougars (Provo)
Sep 5, 2009; Arlington, TX, USA; Oklahoma Sooners running back Jermie Calhoun (23) rushes against the Brigham Young Cougars at Cowboys Stadium. The Cougars beat the Sooners 14-13. Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
LaVell Edwards Stadium (Provo)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 81.8%
All-Time Series: BYU leads 2-0
Projected running record: 10-1
BYU is one of just a few teams the Oklahoma Sooners have never beaten. Can they change the narrative in Provo before jetting off to the SEC?
Nov. 24: TCU Horned Frogs (Norman)
Oct 1, 2022; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Dillon Gabriel (8) throws as TCU Horned Frogs defensive lineman Terrell Cooper (95) chases during the first quarter at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Gaylord Family Oklahoma Memorial Stadium (Norman)
Predicted Winner: Oklahoma
Sooners Win Probability: 69.5%
All-Time Series: 17-6
Projected running record: 11-1
Dillon Gabriel and the Oklahoma Sooners will be eager to right a wrong from the 2022 season that saw Gabriel knocked out of the game on a dirty hit in the second quarter.
Big 12 Championship Game Awaits?
Dec 2, 2017; Arlington, TX, USA; Oklahoma Sooners quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) celebrates after the Big 12 Championship game against the TCU Horned Frogs at AT&T Stadium. Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
If the Oklahoma Sooners can navigate their conference schedule with just one loss as the ESPN Matchup Predictor suggests, they’ll be playing in the Big 12 championship game, and likely against Texas.
11-1 would put them in contention for the Big 12 title game, but the perception of their schedule is that it’s not very strong. Given the lack of Power Five teams in their nonconference schedule, that’s not inaccurate. And with no Texas Tech, Baylor, or Kansas State — teams projected to be in the top half of the Big 12 — the Sooners could go 11-1, win the Big 12, and still conceivably miss the College Football Playoff.
After the 2022 season, the Sooners are in “show me” mode. They went into last year as one of the perceived favorites, but the defensive showing and the offensive inconsistencies in key situations limited their success.
If they can improve defensively and have worked out some of the kinks in their third down and red zone offense, then they’ll turn those close losses from 2022 into wins and flirt with Big 12 title contention.
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