ESPN’s matchup predictor forecasts Iowa-Rutgers, updates remainder of 2023 season
The stretch run of the season is upon us. With Iowa sitting at 7-2 (4-2 Big Ten), the Hawkeyes are in prime position to capture the division crown and represent the Big Ten West in Indianapolis.
Of course, there’s still plenty of meat left on the bone before then. That starts this afternoon against an improved Rutgers (6-3, 3-3 Big Ten) squad. The Scarlet Knights are enjoying a breakthrough season in Greg Schiano’s second stint as head coach.
Leaning on a strong run game with junior running back Kyle Monangai and junior quarterback Gavin Wimsatt, Rutgers has already secured bowl eligibility. The Scarlet Knights have Big Ten wins over Northwestern, Michigan State and Indiana.
A win over the Hawkeyes would qualify as a signature win for Rutgers. Iowa will look to squelch those dreams and march one step closer toward its third Big Ten West title in the division’s final year.
What does ESPN think about today’s contest and the rest of the season for Iowa? Let’s take a look at the updated ESPN matchup predictor numbers for the Hawkeyes.
vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Predicted Winner: Iowa
Hawkeyes’ Win Probability: 62.0% (down from 64.0% last week)
All-Time Series: Iowa leads, 3-0
Last meeting: Iowa 27, Rutgers 10
Projected running record: 8-2 (5-2 Big Ten)
vs. Illinois Fighting Illini on Nov. 18
Predicted Winner: Iowa
Hawkeyes’ Win Probability: 70.7% (down from 72.6% last week)
All-Time Series: Iowa trails, 37-39-2
Last meeting: Illinois 9, Iowa 6
Projected running record: 9-2 (6-2 Big Ten)
at Nebraska Cornhuskers on Nov. 24
Predicted Winner: Iowa
Hawkeyes’ Win Probability: 59.3% (down from 59.9% last week)
All-Time Series: Iowa trails, 20-30-3
Last meeting: Nebraska 24, Iowa 17
Projected running record: 10-2 (7-2 Big Ten)
Takeaways from ESPN's matchup predictor
Even with one of the nation’s worst offenses, ESPN’s matchup predictor has really liked Iowa and its spectacular defense and special teams all season long.
Iowa’s chances to win each of its remaining three games per ESPN’s matchup predictor has dipped across the board. Still, ESPN’s formula is predicting Hawkeye wins and a 10-2 finish for Iowa. That would mean a trip to Indianapolis for the Big Ten Championship game.
It would also constitute just the 11th season of 10-plus wins in program history and the eight time the Hawkeyes would have accomplished that mark under head coach Kirk Ferentz. If Iowa wins out, it would mean the Hawkeyes would have captured the seventh 10-win regular season in program history.
So, ESPN’s matchup predictor is calling for a bit of history.
What Kirk Ferentz said about Rutgers
As Iowa zeroes in on topping Rutgers today, Iowa head football coach Kirk Ferentz shared his thoughts on the Scarlet Knights earlier this week.
“They have a good football team. One of the top running backs in the Big Ten. Big, physical offensive line. Receivers that will block. Veteran guys, all three guys are veterans. Quarterback is playing really well for them. Tight end is a dangerous player. They’re playing good team defense. You can see it in the process last year. Now it’s coming to fruition. Good job on special teams, kicker, punter. Overall is going to be a big challenge for us,” Ferentz said of Rutgers.
Iowa kicks off this afternoon at 2:30 p.m. CT on the Big Ten Network.
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