ESPN FPI leaning in Penn State’s favor vs. Michigan
Penn State is preparing to host its biggest home game of the year when the two-time defending Big Ten champion Michigan Wolverines come to town on Saturday. Michigan will come in with a no. 2 ranking in the US LBM Coaches Poll and AP Top 25 and is currently ranked no. 3 in the College Football Playoff rankings, which will be updated Tuesday evening. The Wolverines have been blowing through every team in their path this season, doing what a heavy favorite has been expected to do against the competition Michigan has faced so far. And the Wolverines open as a solid road favorite this weekend in Happy Valley according to one sportsbook, but the ESPN Football Power Index is actually tipped ever so slightly in favor of Penn State.
As of Monday morning the week of the game, Penn State is being given a 50.7% chance of handing Michigan its first loss of the year. This is a reversal of fortune for Penn State with the ESPN metrics because the Nittany Lions were on the other end of the numbers a week ago. Perhaps all that was needed was a reason to believe in the Penn State offense again? A 51-15 victory at Maryland may have swayed the numbers back in Penn State’s favor.
Here is an updated look at Penn State’s FPI outlook from ESPN for each of its remaining three regular season games as well as some other projections for the Nittany Lions.
Week 11: vs. Michigan
ESPN FPI prediction: 50.7%
Last week: 45.8%
What a difference a week makes! Although Michigan continued to dominate its competition with a solid victory at home against a struggling Purdue program last week, the FPI reacted kindly to Penn State’s performance at Maryland. Penn State picked up roughly 5 percentage points in their favor in the past week, and it’s not because of any struggles by Micigan on the field.
Penn State has been the favored team according to the FPI for much of the season, but the last couple of weeks have seen the ESPN numbers favor Michigan, until this past weekend.
Week 12: vs. Rutgers
ESPN FPI prediction: 93.7%
Last week: 92.3%
After the Michigan game, Penn State will be massive favorites in each of their remaining two regular season games. No matter what happens against Michigan, Penn State should be picking up a win at home against Rutgers. Rutgers did just battle Ohio State for a half last weekend in New Jersey but the Buckeyes gained control in the second half and pulled away for the win. A similar result against Penn State could feasibly happen, but the numbers don’t anticipate Penn State letting this one slip through their fingers.
Week 13: at Michigan State (in Detroit, MI)
ESPN FPI prediction: 95.5%
Last week: 94.5%
Of the three remaining games for Penn State, this one could be the easiest of the bunch. Even though the game is being played away from home, Penn State should have a good contingent of fans make the trip to Detroit to watch the regular season finale against Michigan State. The Spartans just picked up their first Big Ten win of the year this past weekend with a home win against Nebraska, but their bowl hopes should be extinguished by the time this game is played and the Spartans could be a team ready to just pack it in for the year and try again next fall.
Plus, Penn State could need the win to wrap up a spot in the Big Ten championship game if it can beat Michigan, or simply stay on the radar for a New Years Six bowl game.
Where does Penn State rank in overall FPI?
According to the most recent numbers from ESPN, Penn State ranks no. 4 in the nation in FPI with a score of 25.1. The only three teams ranked higher are Ohio State (27.3), Michigan (27.0), and future Big Ten member Oregon (25.3). Penn State’s no. 4 spot in the FPI is up one spot from a week ago and they are just ahead of SEC frontrunners Alabama (24.3) and Georgia (22.7), respectively.
FPI's projected outcome for Penn State
At this moment, the ESPN FPI is projecting Penn State to finish the regular season with a record of 10.5-1.6, with a 44.0% chance of winning out. It all depends on what happens with this weekend’s Michigan game.
Michigan has a 23.8% chance of winning out its remaining games according to the same figures. Michigan has to play at Penn State this weekend and then close out the regular season at home against rival Ohio State. Ohio State is given a 40.2% chance of winning out, showing just how much of a three-team race the FPI is forecasting in the Big Ten East down the final stretch.
FPI's Big Ten East and Big Ten championship projections
With three games left to play, the ESPN Football Power Index still sees Penn State as the third team running in the Big Ten East. Ohio State has a 54.7% chance of winning the division, Michigan has a 31.9% chance, and Penn State has just a 13.4% chance. This all makes sense given that Ohio State has the head-to-head tiebreaker with Penn State. If Ohio State and Penn State both beat Michigan, then Ohio State has the winning hand in the division. Penn State’s best bet, barring a complete catastrophe by the Buckeyes in the next couple of weeks, is a three-team tie that comes down to a tiebreaker.
The conference championship odds also put Penn State third in the running behind Ohio State and Michigan. Penn State has a 12.1% chance of winning the Big Ten championship while Ohio State (50.9%) and Michigan (58.0%) are well ahead of the Nittany Lions. But it does seem that whoever gets out of the East is the runaway favorite to win the Big Ten championship game.
The Big Ten West team with the best Big Ten title odds is Iowa with a 5.2% chance.
FPI's College Football Playoff outlook for Penn State
A lot can change this week with a win over Michigan, but Penn State is still looking to be on the outside of the College Football Playoff. The four teams with the highest percentage chance to make the College Football Playoff according to the FPI numbers are Ohio State (76.9%), Florida State (62.1%), Michigan (43.6%), and Alabama (41.1%).
Penn State currently has a 21.1% chance of reaching the four-team playoff field, and they would still have to find a way to climb over Texas (39.2%), Georgia (38.6%), Oregon (37.5%), and Washington (30.8%) to get there. Two of those teams (Georgia and Washington) are still undefeated this regular season, and at this point, both could probably make the playoff ahead of Penn State with just 1 loss.
As for going and winning it all, Penn State has a 5.6% chance of claiming the national championship according to the FPI numbers. Those are the 8th-best odds as of Monday morning from the FPI.
These can all change dramatically in the next week, especially if Penn State manages to beat Michigan. Let’s see what Week 11 has on tap for us!
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