ESPN FPI: Ducks’ championship odds see a bump; Oregon favored to win all but one game
The Oregon Ducks beat up on an FCS school in the first week of the 2023 season, beating the Portland State Vikings 81-7.
A lot of Oregon fans and college football fans, in general, are looking past the result as much more than a beatdown on a tilted field. However, the stat tabulators that work for the ESPN Football Power Index seem incredibly impressed by the Ducks’ performance.
After each week of the season, we like to look back at the ESPN FPI and see how the projections change based on the previous result. For the Ducks — who were favored to win all but two games coming into the season — the expectations have gone up. Oregon is now favored to win all but one game in the season, and in that single game, the percent chance at a victory went up.
On top of that, the Ducks saw their odds to win the Pac-12, make it to the College Football Playoff, and win the national championship all rise as well.
Take a look at the latest FPI predictions following Week 1:
Week 2 at Texas Tech Red Raiders
Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 67.7%
Previous FPI Odds: 51.0%
Analysis
The air was kind of let out of the balloon on Saturday night as Texas Tech lost to Wyoming in double overtime to start their season. What was expected to potentially be a top-25 matchup is now a lot less appealing from the surface. That doesn’t mean Oregon will have an easy time with the Red Raiders, though. Lubbock is a tough place to play, and Texas Tech will be out looking for a bounceback.
Week 3 vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 97.9%
Previous FPI Odds: 96.4%
Analysis
If you lose to Stanford, then your win percentage against any other team in the nation needs to be single digits. Hawaii may be an entertaining team, but there’s little chance that they have any shot of stopping the Oregon offense. This will be a blowout.
Week 4 vs. Colorado Buffaloes
(Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 93.5%
Previous FPI Odds: 94.2%
Analysis
Well, well, well… if this game didn’t just get more interesting. Based on the comments from each coach leading up to the season, there was already a lot of buzz about this matchup in Eugene, but now that we’ve seen Colorado can actually be a dangerous team on the field, this became a must-watch game. It’s going to be an entertaining one in Week 4, but the Ducks should still feel confident that they can get the victory.
Week 5 at Stanford Cardinal
(Photo by Darryl Oumi/Getty Images)
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 87.8%
Previous FPI Odds: 82.8%
Analysis
Stanford picked up a win over Hawaii in Week 1, but I’m not sure how many more victories they will get this season. I’m honestly surprised this win probability isn’t a bit higher for the Ducks. I don’t see any scenario where this is a close game.
Week 7 at Washington Huskies
Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 55.0%
Previous FPI Odds: 51.7%
Analysis
The probability of this game surprised me a little bit. Washington looked really good against Boise State, and they get the Ducks at home. On top of that, nearly every outlet has the Huskies as a higher-ranked team. So why did Oregon’s win probability go up after Week 1? I’m not sure, but I’m also not arguing.
Week 8 vs. Washington State Cougars
Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 87.9%
Previous FPI Odds: 86.9%
Analysis
I thought that Cameron Ward looked really good for Washington State on Saturday, and overall the Cougars played well. I want to see them against better competition before I start to treat WSU as a threat in the conference. I don’t see a tough game here for Oregon.
Week 9 at Utah Utes
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 51.5%
Previous FPI Odds: 40.8%
Analysis
I can’t say I’m too shocked that Oregon is now favored to beat Utah in Salt Lake City this year. The Utes looked solid against Florida without Cam Rising earlier this week, but there are still some questions on offense. However, this is by far the most drastic shift in the probability on the board.
Week 10 vs. California Golden Bears
James Snook-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 78.4%
Previous FPI Odds: 81.3%
Analysis
I guess California’s 56 points against North Texas were enough to convince the FPI that the game against Oregon might be closer? Who knows. I still don’t see a world where this isn’t a blowout.
Week 11 vs. USC Trojans
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 48.3%
Previous FPI Odds: 46.0%
Analysis
The only game of the year that Oregon is supposed to lose, according to the ESPN FPI. With that, the Ducks’ probability went up as well in the matchup with USC. This is going to be a good one in Autzen.
Week 12 at Arizona State Sun Devils
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 92.8%
Previous FPI Odds: 78.3%
Analysis
What a big jump in probability for the Ducks. ESPN obviously didn’t like what it saw from Arizona State on Thursday, barely beating Southern Utah. There may be some drama going into this game because of the people involved, but it won’t be a good game.
Week 13 vs. Oregon State Beavers
(Photo by Ali Gradischer/Getty Images)
Oregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 79.1%
Previous FPI Odds: 65.9%
Analysis
The Beavers looked good in a win over San Jose St. on Sunday, but the Ducks still saw a big jump in win probability after the weekend. I’m not sure I would give them that much of a lead, this is going to be a good game.
Season Outlook
(Photo Courtesy of Ethan Landa)
FPI Score: 18.8
Previous: 15.0
FPI Rank: 12th
Previous: 13th
Projected Record: 9.6-2.8
Previous: 8.9-3.4
Pac-12 Title Odds: 25.1%
Previous: 18.4%
College Football Playoff Odds: 14.9%
Previous: 7.5%
National Championship Odds: 6.1%
Previous: 2.4%
Win Championship Odds: 2.2%
Previous: 0.7%
