What can an early look at football computer projections show before official OHSAA reveal?
After the Week 4 slate of high school football games has been completed, the Ohio High School Athletic Association will begin releasing its official computer points showing week-to-week standings and eventually revealing postseason clinchers and pairings.
For high school football fans around the state, the scoreboard watching and computations begin straight away, unofficially of course. The OHSAA links to JoeEitel.com where Eitel compiles and updates regional playoff rankings every week.
Until the OHSAA releases rankings itself, Eitel's rankings should be deemed as "unofficial" but can still provide a look at some computer-point winners in the early season.
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Division I, Region 4
Since the OHSAA expanded playoffs to the top 16 teams of each region, doubling up on the previous system of eight teams, some of the luster of waiting to see which teams were in and which were out of the brackets disappeared. That's especially true for a region like Division I, Region 4.
With 16 of the 19 teams in the region appearing in the postseason, winning just a single game could be enough to qualify for Week 11. In 2022, Lakota East, Sycamore and Walnut Hills were the teams left out and of that trio only Lakota East had won a game.
Looking ahead to 2023, six teams have yet to register wins through three weeks, but Colerain, Fairfield and Lakota East have yet to play each other and will in the coming weeks and will pick up wins. Some shakeup will more than likely come atop, but keep an eye on those Greater Miami Conference matches. Springboro, Walnut Hills and Western Hills also could win games and enter the postseason.
1. Princeton, 7.1500; 2. Milford, 6.8167; 3. Sycamore, 5.5833; 4. Hamilton, 4.9833; 5. St. Xavier, 4.8232; 6. Middletown, 4.1667; 7. Elder, 3.8333; 8. Mason, 2.8167; 9. Moeller, 2.3833; T-10. Lakota West, 2.1667; T-10. Lebanon, 2.1667; T-10. Oak Hills, 2.1667; 13. West Clermont, 2.0000; T-14. Colerain, 0.0000; T-14. Fairfield, 0.0000; T-14. Lakota East, 0.0000; T-14. Springboro, 0.0000; T-14. Walnut Hills, 0.0000; T-14. Western Hills, 0.0000.
Division II, Region 8
The Eastern Cincinnati Conference stands strong atop Region 8 with Kings, Winton Woods and Anderson (also notice Milford above at No. 2 in Division I) ahead early. All three will still need to play each other. Winton Woods, which went 10-0 in the regular season last year before falling to Kings in the postseason, plays Anderson, Kings and Milford in three straight games from Sept. 22 through Oct. 6.
1. Kings, 8.8833; 2. Winton Woods, 8.0667; 3. Anderson, 8.0167; 4. Northmont, 8.0000; 5. Xenia, 7.6500; 6. Withrow, 6.9333; 7. Troy, 6,5333; 8. La Salle, 4.8333; 9. Turpin, 4.8167; 10. Harrison, 4.3833; 11. Sidney, 2.6000; T-12. Lima Senior, 2.0000; T-12. Ross, 2.0000; T-12. Stebbins, 2.0000; 15. Fairborn, 1.8333; T-16. Belmont, 0.0000; T-16. Edgewood, 0.0000; T-16. Little Miami, 0.0000; T-16. Loveland, 0.0000; T-16. Northwest, 0.0000; T-16. Piqua, 0.0000; T-16. Talawanda, 0.0000.
Division III, Region 12
While Badin looks like a strong candidate to finish atop the region for the third straight season, Mount Healthy has had the biggest turnaround. Last year, the Owls went 5-5 in the regular season, reaching the postseason as the No. 15 seed. Sitting at 3-0, Mount Healthy has taken an early spot near the top of the region, but its next two games against undefeated Clinton-Massie and Fenwick will be tellers of just how far the Owls have come.
1. Badin, 8.0167; 2. Mount Healthy, 7.5833; 3. Elida, 5.7833; 4. Trotwood-Madison, 5.4833; 5. Tecumseh, 4.933; 6. Tippecanoe, 4.3833; T-7. Wilmington, 4.333; T-7. Celina, 7.333; 9. Chaminade Julienne, 4.1667; T-10. New Richmond, 4.0167; T-10. Oakwood, 4.0167; T-12. Carroll, 2.9833; T-12. Bellbrook, 2.9833; 14. Western Brown, 2.3833; 15. Meadowdale, 2.2833; T-16. Butler, 2.0000; T-16. Monroe, 2.0000; 18. Woodward, 1.8500; 19. Hillsboro, 1.8333; 20. Aiken, 1.6667; 21. Wapakoneta, 1.5000; T-22. Franklin, 0.0000; T-22. Goshen, 0.0000; T-22. Greenville, 0.0000; T-22. Hughes, 0.0000; T-22. Shawnee, 0.0000; T-22. Thurgood Marshall, 0.0000; T-22. West Carrollton, 0.0000.
Division IV, Region 16
Region 16 has many teams looking to jump to the front early, but historically the easy money is to watch Wyoming take over. The Cowboys, last season's Division IV state runner-up, have won 70 consecutive regular-season games and stand a good chance to extend that to 77 by the end of the regular season.
1. Springfield Shawnee, 7.9833; 2. Wyoming, 7.3667; 3. Clinton-Massie, 6.8333; T-4. Fenwick, 6.2667; T-4. Roger Bacon 6.2667; 6. Eaton, 5.8333; 7. Taft, 5.2667; 8. Unioto, 5.0667; 9. Urbana, 4.8333; 10. Waverly, 4.5667; 11. Alter, 4.222; 12. Washington Court House, 4.0500; 13. Reading, 3.7833; 14. Kenton Ridge, 3.6667; 15. McClain, 3.6333; 16. Dunbar, 2.6000; 17. Northridge, 2.3500; 18. Batavia, 2.2500; 19. Indian Hill, 2.0000; 20. Taylor, 1.8500; 21. McNicholas, 1.8333; T-22. Bethel, 0.0000; T-22. Cincinnati Hills Christian Academy, 0.0000; T-22. Graham Local, 0.0000; T-22. Ponitz Tech, 0.0000; T-22. Shroder, 0.0000.
Division V, Region 20
One of the stories of the year could come out of Middletown Madison. After going a combined 1-19 over the last two seasons, the Mohawks brought back Steve Poff as head coach. The result? A 3-0 start to the season and a good start to not just a potential playoff berth, but a home playoff clincher.
1. Valley View, 5.9500; 2. Middletown Madison, 5.4333; 3. Brookville, 5.3667; 4. Purcell Marian, 4.5167; 5. Mariemont, 4.2833; 6. Carlisle, 4.1333; 7. Waynesville, 4.0000; 8. Madeira, 3.9500; 9. Miami East, 3.4500; 10. Westfall, 3.3333; 11. Northeastern, 3.2833; 12. Clermont Northeastern, 2.8500; 13. East Clinton, 2.5000; 14. Finneytown, 2.3333; T-15. Blanchester, 2.1167; T-15. Greeneview, 2.1167; 17. Zane Trace, 1.9000; 18. Clark Montessori, 1.7500; T-19. Milton Union, 1.6833; T-19. Preble Shawnee, 1.6833; 21. Bethel-Tate, 1.5167; 22. Northwestern, 1.5000; 23. Gamble Montessori, 1.1667; T-24. Greenon, 0.0000; T-24. Madison-Plains, 0.0000; T-24. North College Hill, 0.0000; T-24. Norwood, 0.0000; T-24. Summit Country Day, 0.0000.
Division VI, Region 24
With last season's Division VI state champion Marion Local dropped down to Division VII, a new regional champion will come out of this bracket. Unofficially, Williamsburg has taken the biggest jump at that title, leading the Eitel projections by more than 1.3 points.
1. Williamsburg, 7.5500; 2. Versailles, 6.2167; 3. West Liberty-Salem, 5.3333; 4. Tri-Village, 5.3167; 5. Cincinnati Country Day, 4.5238; 6. Paint Valley, 4.5167; 7. Anna, 3.9667; 8. Deer Park, 2.8333; 9. Dixie, 2.5000; 10. Arcanum, 2.3333; 11. Twin Valley South, 2.0333; 12. Parkway, 1.9167; 13. Troy Christian, 1.6167; 14. National Trail, 1.5667; 15. Allen East, 1.5167; 16. Southeastern, 1.5000; 17. Riverview East, 1.1667; T-18. Adena, 0.0000; T-18. Dayton Christian, 0.0000; T-18. Fairbanks, 0.0000; T-18. Huntington, 0.0000; T-18. Triad, 0.0000; T-18. Lucasville Valley, 0.0000.
Division VII, Region 28
Four of the local representatives in Region have gone 0-3, but St. Bernard-Elmwood Place and Cincinnati College Prep have done the opposite with 3-0 marks. Competitive balance numbers pushed 13-time state champion Marion Local down to Division VII and the Flyers will be the team to beat.
1. Marion Local, 6.1333; 2. Ansonia, 5.3167; 3. Southeastern Local, 5.3000; 4. St. Bernard-Elmwood Place, 5.2000; 5. Cincinnati College Prep, 4.8535; 6. Cedarville, 4.7500; 7. Riverside, 4.6000; 8. Mechanicsburg, 4.2667; 9. New Bremen, 3.8000; T-10. Lehman Catholic, 3.1833; T-10. Minster, 3.1833; 12. Bradford, 1.7500; 13. St. Henry, 1.6667; 14. Springfield Central Catholic, 1.5000; 15. Tri-County North, 1.3333; 16. Fort Loramie, 1.1667; T-17. Covington, 0.0000; T-17. Fayetteville, 0.0000; T-17. Fort Recovery, 0.0000; T-17. Lockland, 0.0000; T-17. Miami Valley Christian, 0.0000; T-17. Mississinawa Valley, 0.0000; T-17. New Miami, 0.0000.
This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: OHSAA football computer point projections: Joe Eitel's early look
