Ducks Wire Roundtable: Predictions, opinions for No.11 Oregon vs. No. 19 Colorado
These are the types of matchups that a roundtable was built for.
So many storylines, so many questions, so many predictions, and some many potential outcomes to discuss. The Oregon Ducks are going to be part of a marquee game in the world of college football this week, hosting Deion Sanders, the No. 19 Colorado Buffaloes, and the entire circus that comes with that.
While Oregon is a heavy favorite in the game so far, we’ve seen already this year that sportsbooks have not had an easy time handicapping the Buffs. In Week 1, they upset TCU as 22-point underdogs, and they got taken to double overtime against Colorado State as 24-point favorites as week.
It’s safe to say that anything can happen in this game.
To preview the action, Ducks Wire writers Zachary Neel, Don Smalley and Miles Dwyer made predictions and offered opinions on what we might see.
Here is your fourth regular-season Ducks Wire roundtable of the 2023 season. Enjoy.
Non-Conference Takeaways
(Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images)
Question: We will get to this Colorado-Oregon game, but first I want to take a second and see if we can look back on the non-conference schedule so far. With three games down, what do you think has been the most surprising and encouraging aspect of the Ducks thus far?
I don’t know that it’s a major surprise because of the emphasis this offseason, but I’ve been pleased with what we’ve seen from the defensive line so far. The Ducks had such a big lack of a pass rush in 2022 that it hindered them greatly. That’s changed so far this year. While the sack numbers may not be elite just yet, Oregon has shown an ability to get pressure on the QB early and often. Sacks will come.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
The improvement of the secondary over a short amount of time. They looked like a completely different unit against Hawaii than they did vs Texas Tech. They made mistakes vs TT, but they were correctable mistakes and they corrected them. That’s very encouraging. Also, the lack of consistency of the running game. I’m not sure whether it’s the game plan, the offensive line still gelling or whatever. They need to establish the run vs. Colorado and hurt them downfield with the play-action pass.
What’s encouraged me most has been the Ducks’ running game. All three of Oregon’s top backs have shown prowess in finding a way to get downfield and move the chains for the Ducks’ offense, even when the blocking in front of them hasn’t been superb. Oregon’s ability to control the game with the legs of Bucky Irving, Noah Whittington, and Jordan James will be key to their success, so it’s good to see that part of the offense already off to a hot start.
Season-Long Confidence
Question: Through this point of the season, do you feel more confident, less confident, or just as confident in Oregon’s season-long aspirations as you did before the season started?
I think I am just as confident. Ultimately I’ve gained some confidence in the defensive line and secondary, while losing a bit of confidence in the in the rushing attack, which is Oregon’s bread and butter. In the end, I have the same expectations for this team now as I did before the season — a Pac-12 title game appearance and a potential spot in the College Football Playoff.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
I feel more confident. The Ducks have improved in nearly every aspect from Game 1 to Game 3, especially the defense. I’m excited to see how they progress as the Pac-12 season moves along. The penalties seem to be the only thing they haven’t been able to fix, but I think they will. Colorado likes to bait teams into personal fouls. Hopefully Oregon can stay away from that and just play their game.
Before the season began, I was definitely more optimistic than I am now, but I don’t know that I’m less confident. Back before Portland State — or even Texas Tech — we didn’t know how good the Ducks’ defense or offensive line would be, and it was possible that they exceeded all of our expectations. In the first three games neither the defense nor the O-line have blown me away, but I have been satisfied with their level of play. I’ve lost my optimism that either of those units will be world class, but I have been impressed with them, and so I haven’t lost any confidence.
Prove it, Colorado
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Question: Alright, Colorado time. The Buffs got a scare last week, going to 2OT vs. Colorado State. Do you feel more confident after this game, or slightly more concerned because Colorado will be playing with something to prove against the Ducks?
If the Buffs were coming into Eugene at full strength, I might give a bit of credence to the “something to prove” notion, but playing without arguably their best player in Travis Hunter is going to hurt. Colorado may be playing with a bit of edge after looking bad last week, but I don’t know that it will matter vs. Oregon.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
More confident, especially with Hunter out. Oregon’s team speed will be way too much for the Buffs to overcome.
After the Buffs win at TCU, and then again after their win over Nebraska, the whole country zoomed in on Boulder. I think what Colorado has done this season so far has been tremendous, but after those first two weeks I saw what was happening as a bit of an overreaction. Now, after CU’s near-loss to the CSU Rams, I think people are overreacting again, this time in the opposite way. Good teams have bad games and that’s what happened against Colorado State, but make no mistake, Colorado is a very good football team, and I think it is naive to think the Ducks will get out of Autzen without a struggle.
Travis Hunter
Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Question: Travis Hunter will be out for this game against Oregon, how big of an impact do you think that has on Colorado’s chances?
It definitely doesn’t help. Hunter was always a bigger difference-maker on defense for Colorado, where he practically took away half of the field as a cornerback and made it hard to throw to that side. Now, trying to cover the Ducks’ array of very talented pass-catchers without your lockdown corner is going to be incredibly difficult.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
I don’t think they had much of a chance with Hunter, but without him, forget it. We’ll see how Colorado handles itself against some real adversity.
The impact of losing Travis Hunter is massive. A lot of people have compared losing him to losing two players, which is an absolutely warranted comparison. More than that, you are losing two of the best players on your team. Where I see Hunter’s absence having the most impact though is on defense. Colorado has other elite receivers, but when asked this week who would fill the spot at corner, Coach Sanders said it would be done “by committee.” For Oregon’s elite wide receiver room, being guarded “by committee” means an afternoon of mismatches, which is hopefully something they can exploit.
Which Unit Matters Most
Question: Which Oregon unit (OL, DL, RB, WR, CB, Etc.) do you think needs to have the biggest day on Saturday in order to beat Colorado?
The biggest key for Oregon in my mind is the defensive line getting pressure on Shedeur Sanders. Colorado’s QB is so incredibly talented, and has an ability to completely take the game over with his arm if he is given time to throw. However, the Buffs’ offensive line is less than stellar, allowing five sacks per game (128th in the nation). If the Ducks’ DL can take advantage of that and keep Shedeur uncomfortable, then Oregon should be able to win comfortably.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
The defensive line should be able to overwhelm the Colorado offensive line and get pressure on Sanders and eventually sack him multiple times. He’s already been sacked 16 times and that was against subpar opponents. Facing 3rd and long all day is not a formula for victory.
I’m going to cheat a little bit and say the RBs and the OL. What’s going to win Oregon this game, is running the football. Colorado’s defensive line is one of their weakest points, and I think running up the middle should be Oregon’s main point of attack for that reason. If the Ducks can get their running game going, it will also open up the rest of the offense. Look for Bucky to have a big day.
Which is More Likely?
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Question: Which do you think is more likely: Oregon’s DL gets 6+ sacks, or Colorado scores 30+ points?
This is a tough one. As I mentioned before, Colorado has one of the worst defensive lines in the nation, and that’s a mismatch that Oregon should be able to take advantage of. Strangely, I feel like if one of these happens, the other won’t happen, if that makes sense. If Oregon gets 6+ sacks, I don’t see Colorado scoring more than 30 points. If Colorado scores 30 points or more, then it’s likely that Oregon’s DL wasn’t able to have an impact.
All of that being said, give me 6+ sacks. I think this is a breakout day for the Ducks’ defense.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
Six sacks is a lot, but I think that’s more likely if the Ducks blitz enough. That offensive line isn’t good and the Ducks should come up with enough blitz packages to sack Sanders. Also, Sanders isn’t all that mobile. He isn’t capable of the scramble very much.
Honestly, I’m taking Colorado for 30+. I really don’t think it will happen, but then again Texas Tech scored 30. 6 sacks is such a large number. I know that Colorado’s O-line has struggled this season, but I’m also not convinced the Oregon pass rush is all the way there yet. Hopefully, they prove me wrong.
Bo vs. Shedeur
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Question: Who has more passing yards/passing TD at the end of the day, Bo Nix or Shedeur Sanders?
Give me Nix here. Bo and Shedeur are on an even playing field when compared to each other, but Oregon’s defense is much better than Colorado’s. I think that the Buffs have very little chance to slow down the Ducks’ offense, and this ends up being a huge day for Nix’s Heisman Trophy campaign.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
Nix is going for 350+. Sanders will get his yards, but not on a consistent basis. This will be the best secondary he has ever faced and it’s on the road at Autzen.
Bo. Like I mentioned before, Oregon WRs will have mismatches throughout the game, which should allow Bo Nix to sling the rock around. I think we’ll see one if not two successful deep bombs from Nix in this one.
Gambling Corner
Question: Gambling Corner. I give you $100 to put on either the spread (Oregon -21.5) the money line (Oregon -1100, CU +700) or the O/U (71.5) where are you putting it?
I feel confident that Oregon will win by double digits, but 21.5 points is a lot to give… Take my $100 and put it on the under 71.5. I think the Ducks will score a lot, but Colorado gets slowed down by Oregon’s defense.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
$50 on the Ducks covering the 21.5 and the other $50 on the under 71.5.
I’m taking all of my hundred bucks and betting it on the under. The story with both of these teams is centered around their offenses, and because of that, the Over/Under seems to be skewed a bit to me. A 71.5 over likely means that one team would score 40 with the other team not far behind. Since both of these defenses have had an ability to create turnovers this season, I think both teams will score less than they expect going in, and in turn, they’ll score fewer than 71.5 total points.
Final Score Prediction
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Question: What is your score prediction for this game?
Oregon 42, Colorado 20
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
Oregon 45, Colorado 17
Oregon 31, Colorado 24
