Ducks Wire Roundtable: Predictions, opinions for No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 16 OSU
The regular season is coming to an end after this week, and the Oregon Ducks are in a place to be in as good of a spot as they’ve been in several years should they take care of business.
That makes this upcoming game against the Oregon State Beavers of the utmost importance. The stakes are high, as Oregon can make it to the Pac-12 title game and keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive with a win on Friday night against the rival Beavers.
We can expect emotions to be high as always in this game, especially with it being the last meeting between the two as conference foes.
To preview the game, we go through our weekly roundtable with the writers from Ducks Wire. Here’s our final regular season roundtable of the year.
The Heisman Conversation
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Question: We usually look back to the prior game to start these, but there’s not a whole lot that hasn’t been covered already. So instead, let’s talk about the Heisman Trophy. Say that we live in a world where on December 9th, it is announced that LSU QB Jayden Daniels is announced as the Heisman Winner (with a 9-3 LSU heading to a solid bowl game) while Bo Nix gets 2nd place (as a 12-1 Pac-12 Champion). Your reaction is BLANK.
I think that Oregon fans would rightfully be very frustrated. I went back and did the research this past week — only 4 of the past 15 Heisman Trophy winners have come from teams that didn’t win their conference championship or make it to the CFP/BCS. In those four years, there often wasn’t an arguable case to be made for the second-place finisher, either. If Daniels were to beat Nix, despite having 3 losses on his record, you’d have to point to the fact that his stats are wildly better than Bo’s, which is not the case. I’d be frustrated, for sure.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
I’d be mad as hell. I’m sorry, but if that scenario occurs, the fix is in and he never had a shot. That would mean Nix most likely outplayed Penix, a QB that is a Heisman contender himself, on a team that was undefeated. Daniels’ team lost three times and to be honest, he wouldn’t start for Oregon, Washington, USC or even Utah (with a healthy Cam Rising). I’d be shocked if Nix doesn’t win the Heisman.
Obviously, I’d be disappointed, but I’d also not be super surprised. The current discourse about Jayden Daniels makes him seem like the favorite to me. Daniels has put together a phenomenal season, but his eye-popping stats are a result of how one-dimensional LSU’s offense is. If Daniels is to win, it will mean Bo is being punished for the well-roundedness of Oregon’s offense.
The Playoff Debate
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Question: Before we dive into this Oregon vs. Oregon State game, I want to put a CFP scenario in front of you to see what you’re thinking. Alabama beats UGA in the SEC title game, Oregon beats Washington, and Ohio State wins the Big Ten. Florida State also loses to Louisville. So you have:
12-1 Alabama (Champ)
12-1 Georgia
12-1 Oregon (Champ)
12-1 Washington
12-1 Texas (Champ)
13-0 Ohio State (Champ)
12-1 Michigan
Who gets your 4 playoff spots?
In that scenario, Alabama is in as an SEC champ, and Ohio State is in as the Big Ten champ. I think you give Oregon the nod as Pac-12 champs who look like one of the best teams in the nation. Then you have one spot left for either Texas, Michigan, Washington, or Georgia. This is where I’d like to take the eye test into account and give the spot to Georgia since they clearly are among the best in the nation and would have just lost their first game in 30 attempts. However, I have a feeling that the nod would go to Texas as the Big 12 champions, though I don’t think they are one of the four best teams.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
Ohio State, Oregon, Texas and Georgia. Let me explain: Ohio State is a champ. Oregon is a champ. Texas is a champ, but beat Alabama. Georgia is a 2x national champ and it would be difficult to leave them out. It comes down to that Texas-Alabama game where Texas won in Tuscaloosa. Michigan is out because of their NCAA problems, Florida St. is out because of the QB injury and the Huskies are out because they lost to Oregon in this scenario and right now, the Ducks are the better team.
I had a very similar conversation with my roommates the other night. In this scenario, I think Ohio State and Alabama as Big Ten and SEC Champions are locks. From there, it comes down to Oregon, Georgia, Texas, and Michigan. I think Michigan gets knocked out of contention because if Ohio State beats them in the regular season, the Wolverines won’t even play in the Big Ten Championship because both teams are in the Big Ten East. With two spots still to fill, I think the Ducks get in as Pac-12 Champs, and I think Texas gets in as Big 12 champs, since the Longhorns have a win against Alabama and Georgia wouldn’t in this scenario.
Civil War Memories
Question: It’s Rivalry Week here in Eugene. Over the years, we’ve gotten some incredible matchups between the Ducks and Beavers, and a lot of blowouts as well. What is your all-time favorite memory from the Civil War since you’ve been watching the Ducks?
For me, it has to be the Civil War in 2010 that sent Oregon to the national championship game. Specifically, it was Jerry Allen’s call at the end of that game that is the greatest memory for me. It still gives me goosebumps and makes me tear up when I hear it to this day. I had the pleasure of talking to Allen on my podcast this past week and he listed that as his favorite memory as well.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
1994 when Oregon went to Corvallis and won to go to the Rose Bowl. I honestly never thought that would happen in my lifetime. Oh how different things were back then. The Keenan Howry punt return in the fog is a cool second place.
I haven’t been watching the Ducks as long as most of you, and last year’s game is not a good memory, so I don’t have a ton of good Ducks vs. Beavers memories in the backlog. I did take a gander back at the history books, and the 69-10 win in 2017 stood out. I was a big Royce Freeman fan, and he had a spectacular performance in that blowout win.
Improvement Since 2022
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Question: The loss vs. Oregon State was a pretty low point last year. What do you think has improved the most since then that gives you confidence going forward?
For me, it’s just the concept of finishing, and playing a complete game. The Ducks had 3 great quarters last year but fumbled everything away in the final 15 minutes. They learned from that, and know now that they no matter how good things go to start the game, none of that matters if they can’t put the finishing touches on it at the end.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
The defense is much improved. OSU won’t be able to run every down in the second half and win this game. Also, this team is very focused on the present. Nothing distracts them. They have nothing on their mind right now but beating the Beavers. You couldn’t say that last season.
I think the biggest thing is defensive consistency. With how much more physical the defense has gotten this, I think it will be much harder for the Beavers to go on a rapid scoring tear like last year, and I can’t see Oregon fumbling a 31-10 lead. So, if the Ducks offense can go up a few scores, Oregon should be in a good spot.
2023 Preview
Question: Finish the sentence: Oregon should really be worried on Friday if they aren‘t able to do BLANK.
I find it unlikely, but if Oregon State’s defense can Bo Nix trouble in the passing game, then I would be a bit concerned here. The Oregon State rushing defense is pretty solid, but their pass defense isn’t as stellar. This is a game where I expect the Ducks to air it out quite a bit, but if they can’t do that, then we’ve got an interesting game.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
Oregon should really be worried on Friday if the Beavers are able to run the ball effectively. Priority No. 1 for the Ducks needs to be to stop the run, and force OSU into 2nd or 3rd and long. The Beavers want to keep the ball out of the Duck offense’s hands and winning the time of possession (running the ball) would do just that. The less overall possessions there are in this game, the better it is for OSU.
I think the biggest concern would be if Damien Martinez was able to run the ball with ease. He’s the crux of their offense, so if the Ducks are able to keep his production limited, the Beavers will have to take the ball out of his hands, which puts Oregon in a much better spot.
Gambling Corner
Question: Gambling Corner. You know the drill. $100 to spend on the spread (Oregon —13.5), the Moneyline (Oregon -550, OSU +400) or the Over/Under (62.5). Where are you allocating your capital?
I don’t have a great feel for how many points are going to be scored in this game because of the possibility that both running games are going to be clicking, but I do feel confident that the Ducks will cover. Give me $100 on the Ducks -13.5.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
I’m putting all $100 on the -13.5. Oregon is on a mission and this game won’t be close.
The Ducks are rolling right now, and they’re at home. I’m taking Oregon to cover the spread with all $100.
Final Score Prediction
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Question: Final Score Prediction. Who wins this game?
Give me the Ducks, 42-20.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
Ducks 45, Beavers 17
38-17 Oregon.
