Ducks Wire Roundtable: Predictions, opinions for Oregon vs. Texas Tech
Last weekend was great because it gave us live Oregon Ducks football after an eight-month hiatus. This weekend is going to be great because it will give us our first competitive football game for the Oregon Ducks since December 2022.
With all due respect to the Portland State Vikings, the Ducks’ season starts this week with a game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders in Lubbock. It’s going to be hot. It’s going to be loud, and it likely is going to be a really good game.
While Week 1 gave us an opportunity to see numerous new players on Oregon’s roster for the first time this year, we didn’t exactly get to learn a whole lot about the team in general.
To help preview all of the action, Ducks Wire writers Zachary Neel, Don Smalley and Miles Dwyer made predictions and offered opinions on what we might see.
Here is your second regular-season Ducks Wire roundtable of the 2023 season. Enjoy.
Week 1 Takeaways
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Question: It’s somewhat difficult to have any major takeaways after Oregon’s 81-7 victory over Portland State in Week 1 because of the level of competition presented, but what do you think was the most notable thing that you saw on Saturday?
I liked the fact that, outside of that one drive in the first quarter, the Ducks posted a shutout defensively. More importantly, the shutout was upheld when backups and almost two-dozen true-freshmen got into the game, which gives me a ton of optimism about the future. In years past, you could expect the defense to be dominant with the starters in, but usually the score was made more respectable in the fourth quarter with the bottom of the depth chart in the game. That wasn’t the case against Portland State. This is a really talented team from top to bottom, and I think we saw that on Saturday.
Perhaps it isn’t the most notable thing to take away, but the most interesting thing I took away was the pecking order of the wide receiver group. I saw the WR depth chart shaking out a lot differently this season than it did in Week 1. I thought Kris Hutson would have a much bigger role this season than he did last week — which he still might — and I was pleasantly surprised by how much Gary Bryant Jr. was able to make an impact. There is definitely no shortage of weaponry in that group, so it will be interesting to see how things settle throughout the season.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
There wasn’t much apprehension. We knew what we were going to get, and the Ducks themselves knew what the deal was. There wasn’t any question. This is now Dan Lanning’s program. They were sure of themselves.
Freshman Standout
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Question: We saw 22 true freshmen get playing time last week against the Vikings. Does any single player stand out for their performance in your mind?
Cole Martin deserves a nod; both Jayden Limar and Dante Dowdell looked great. I am going to go with true freshman offensive lineman Iapania Laloulu, though. He was among the first players to sub in the game on the offensive line, and he got really valuable minute early in the game. When he subbed in at right guard for Steven Jones, the Ducks ran it four straight times to his side, and ended up scoring. We’ve heard great things all fall camp about “Poncho,” and he backed it all up on Saturday.
There were a lot of impressive freshmen last Saturday, but my pick is Cole Martin. He had two tackles and also locked down a receiver to force an incompletion on one of Portland State’s longest throws of the game. It’s not the craziest stat line, but he looked like a veteran, and his play reinforced my belief that he could be a defensive star a year or two down the road.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
Dante Dowdell looked good with his 55 yards on eight carries. Dowdell and Jordan James is going to be one heck of a duo in the coming years.
Texas Tech Loss
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Question: Texas Tech dropped their first game of the season in double-overtime to Wyoming. This undoubtedly weakens Oregon’s nonconference strength of schedule. How big of a deal do you think that is?
The only scenario in which Texas Tech’s loss to Wyoming ends up mattering for the Ducks is if Oregon loses on Saturday in Lubbock. The Pac-12 is so strong this year that whoever wins the conference title will likely make it to the college football playoff. However, if Oregon falls to the Red Raiders on Saturday, their resume is going to take a severe hit, and they would lose some steam as a potential 10-2 Pac-12 champion.
While it’s not a great result, I don’t think it is a massive deal. Traditionally, nonconference play and nonconference strength of schedule is important for a team like Oregon’s postseason implications. However, with how strong the Pac-12 is this year, I see only one avenue for the Ducks to get to the College Football Playoff. I think Oregon will need to win the Pac-12 championship while going either 12-0 or 11-1 with that potential loss coming against USC, UW, or Utah. It doesn’t make Texas Tech’s loss to Wyoming irrelevant, but I don’t see it having a massive impact on Oregon’s playoff hopes.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
Not a big deal. You have to win every game anyway. Plus the strength of the Pac-12 Conference will be more than enough to make up for it.
Remaining Questions
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Question: We didn’t learn much about the Ducks in Week 1 vs. Portland State, so which position group are you still the most curious to see perform on Saturday against a better team in Texas Tech?
I still need to see a lot from this pass rush and defensive line if I am to believe that the Ducks can reach their ceiling this season. While Portland State only passed the ball 20 times and didn’t give much of an opportunity for edge rushers to get home, we still need to see big production games from guys such as Jordan Burch, Brandon Dorlus and Matayo Uiagalelei. They will get the opportunity this week against a pass-happy Texas Tech team, and I’m excited to see what they do with it.
The secondary. Portland State barely threw the ball last Saturday, so to me they seem like the most untested position group. Texas Tech has an excess of good WRs and a good QB in Tyler Shough, so lockdown coverage will be important. I’m excited to watch the whole position group particularly, the new additions of Tysheem Johnson, Nikko Reed, and Evan Williams.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
The offensive line is the easy answer here. They had a nice debut, but now we get to see how they gel in a hostile environment and keep Bo Nix on his feet. I don’t think they’ll have much of a problem. It’ll be nice to see them progress.
A More Likely Outcome
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Question: Which do you think is a more likely statistical outcome — Bucky Irving and the Oregon backfield run wild against the Red Raiders, wracking up 200-plus rushing yards and 4-plus touchdowns, or Bo Nix and the Oregon WRs establish dominance with 350-plus passing yards and 3-plus TDs?
I think the Ducks are going to run the ball early and often, and physically dominate the game. We know what Bucky can do. We saw last week what Jordan can do, and I think this week we will really see what Noah Whittington can do. It’s going to be hot, with temperatures on the field expected to be in the triple-digits. I think Oregon gets that clock moving early on the ground and runs out of the stadium in dominant fashion.
I’ll take the passing game. I think Bucky’s primed for a good game, but this will be the week where Will Stein gets to showcase his ability to spread the offense and throw the ball downfield. I think Bo Nix will have a couple of early scores, one of which could be an opening drive deep ball to Troy Franklin.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
Can I say both? Oregon showed a lot of balance in Week 1. But if I were to pick one, it’ll be Nix and the receivers showing out. They are really, really, good. This might be the best QB/WR talent Oregon has had in quite some time.
What Is Success?
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Question: What constitutes a successful game vs. Texas Tech for you? Obviously, a victory is the No. 1 goal, but you will walk away from this game feeling confident about the Ducks if they do BLANK?
If we are taking “just win” off of the board, then I am hoping to see another dominant defensive performance from the Ducks. We know that the offense can score against just about anyone in the nation, but the defense is what stands between this team and real success this year. If Oregon can hold the Red Raiders under 20 points, I think every Duck fan should walk out of Lubbock with incredibly high expectations for the rest of the year to come.
Similar to last week I want to see the O-line and the defense showing consistency. They both looked good last week, but Portland State wasn’t a real test. Texas Tech blitzes a lot, so this will be a big week for the O-line. Hopefully, they’re up to the challenge. Defensively it’s simple, I just want to see the Ducks defense getting stops. There were so many games last season where it felt like Oregon had to score every time they touched the ball on offense in order to stay in the game, which is a feeling I don’t want to have in this game or this season.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
Win resoundingly and have the game out of hand in the third quarter. Shutting down the Red Raiders and Tyler Shough will be a huge boost for the defense, which looked very good on Saturday.
Gambling Corner
Question: Let’s go to the gambling corner for the first time in the 2023 season. Right now, the betting spread for this game is set at Oregon minus-6.5, with an Over/Under of 66.5 points. The money line is Oregon minus-225, Texas Tech plus-275. If I were to give you $100 and allow you to allocate it any way you see fit on this game, where are you putting your money?
Like Miles, I am taking all $100 of my purse and throwing it down on the spread, Oregon minus-6.5. I’ve talked extensively this week — both on Ducks Wire and on the “Sco-ing Long Podcast” — about how weird the betting line is for this game. It has been hovering around 6 points since Monday, and hasn’t moved despite over 90% of the action coming in on the Ducks. Something is fishy about that. I’m not smart enough to know what Vegas knows, though, so I will fall for the trap if there is one. Give me the Ducks minus-6.5.
I’m taking my whole hundred-dollar bill and betting on Oregon to cover the spread. As I said in the betting preview for this week, if Oregon wins this game — which I see as a strong likelihood — it will be because Oregon’s premier offense is too much for Texas Tech’s subpar defense to handle. For that reason, I can’t see the Ducks winning the game but winning by less than a touchdown.
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
$50 on the Ducks minus-6.5 and $50 on the UNDER 66.5.
Final Score Predictions
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Question: OK, time for a score prediction. Who wins, and what is the final score?
My heart wants to pick dominance, but my head is telling me to keep it a bit closer. I am going to settle on a 45-21 victory for Oregon.
38-27, Ducks win
Don Smalley (@Donald_Smalley):
If all goes according to plan, Oregon wins easily 45-13. The talent between the two teams is just too much for Texas Tech to overcome.
