Dr. Diandra: Michigan prognostications

Highlights: Cup Series qualifying at Michigan

Watch highlights from the NASCAR Cup Series qualifying session ahead of the FireKeepers Casino 400 at Michigan International Speedway.

Ford has historically dominated Michigan International Speedway, but their struggles this year suggest including at least a few Toyotas in your fantasy lineup. But even with Ford's aerodynamic deficit, it's never a good idea to underestimate Kevin Harvick.

Michigan more like intermediate tracks than Fontana or Pocono

Michigan International Speedway is a 2-mile track with minimal tire wear. The D-shaped oval offers 18 degrees of turn banking. Michigan’s frontstretch is only slightly shorter than the entire Richmond track.

It is tempting to compare Michigan to Fontana and Pocono, but Fontana wears tires much more and Pocono is much flatter. Setups and race strategy are quite different at these ovals than they will be this weekend at Michigan.

While drafting does come into play down Michigan’s long straightaways, it doesn't dominate the racing the way it does at Daytona, Talladega and Atlanta.

The best comparison tracks are the low-tire-wear intermediates: Las Vegas, Kansas and Texas. That’s a nice comparison group to have available because the Next Gen car has raced only once at Michigan.

Can Ford’s Michigan domination continue?

Ford has won the last eight Michigan races, but its aerodynamic deficit this year threatens that streak.

Chris Buescher notched only the third Ford win of the season last week. But Richmond’s tire-chewing, slick-as-ice track is the perfect place to mask the problems Ford has been fighting all season. Michigan won’t be so forgiving.

Harvick leads active drivers with six wins at Michigan, which translates to a win rate of 14.3%. Even more impressively, Harvick won five of the last seven races and three of the last four.

Other Ford winners in Sunday’s field are Ryan Blaney (2021) and Joey Logano (2013, '16 and '19).

Chevy hasn’t visited Victory Lane at the Irish Hills track since Kyle Larson won three races in a row in 2016-17. Toyota’s last win came with Matt Kenseth behind the wheel in 2015.

The Metric Matrix

The heatmap below summarizes the metrics I deem most important for Sunday’s race (2:30 p.m. ET, USA Network).

I include each driver’s average finish in the Next Gen car, during the stage-racing era (2017-2023), and over the course of his career. I don’t weight the career average very much in my model, but its weight is a little higher here than at other tracks. Michigan tends to reward veteran drivers. Few drivers earn their first Cup Series wins at Michigan, with Larson being one of those exceptions.

I also included average finishes at the three comparison tracks: Las Vegas, Texas and Kansas.

The final category, qualifying, is more important at Michigan than elsewhere for everyone except Harvick. The No. 4 driver won last year starting 16th and in 2020 starting 20th. Eleven of the last 13 races were won from starting positions in the top 12.

Despite Ford's challenges and a 22nd-place qualifying effort, Harvick still comes out on top in my model.

“Everybody who doubted us doesn’t know us,” Harvick said after breaking a 65-race winless streak at Michigan last year.

Harvick is the one Ford driver consistently outperforming his car this year. He also has a 6.0 average finish in the last three races.

A trio of Toyotas — Bubba Wallace, Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. — claim the next three spots. Despite Toyota’s struggles last year with the Next Gen car, Wallace claimed the pole and finished second last year at Michigan. Hamlin finished third and Truex sixth. But Wallace has a 4.0 average finish at the comparison tracks this year. Truex has been similarly strong at the low-tire-wear intermediates, posting a 6.0 average finish, while Hamlin lags with a 15.7 average.

All three drivers are trending up in recent races: Hamlin has a 3.3 average finish in the last three races, almost nine positions better than his season average finish. Truex’s 3.7 average finish over the last three races is eight positions better than his season average. Wallace’s recent average finish is 10.33, bettering his season average finish by 6.8 positions.

Good bets

Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney make the matrix primarily by virtue of their finishes at Michigan last year and their qualifying positions this year. Logano and Blaney took fourth and fifth at Michigan in 2022. Both have prior wins.

Blaney holds an advantage with a 10.0 average at comparable tracks, including a win at Charlotte. Logano’s comparison track average is 16.5. Logano’s recent races are slightly better than his season on a whole, but Blaney’s season-long 15.7 average finish is 6.3 positions better than his last three races.

William Byron sneaks onto this list because he's run well at the comparison tracks. A seventh-place qualifying effort propelled him over teammate Kyle Larson. Whereas some of the other drivers are strong in one metric and weak in others, Larson is consistent. He has three Michigan wins and finished seventh last year.

Drivers who missed the metric matrix

Chase Elliott has the best career finish at Michigan of any active driver with an 8.0 average. His stage racing record at Michigan is also strong, with a 9.2 average finish from 2017-23. But he came in 11th at Michigan last year and his average finish at the comparable tracks is 20.5. His best numbers are the ones I weight the least in my calculation.

Pole-sitter Christopher Bell crashed in last year's Michigan race. That 26th-place finish, along with a 17.25 career average at Michigan and a 21.7 average finish at the comparison tracks kept him off the list.

Kyle Busch also crashed in last year's race, and his average finish at the comparison tracks is 18.3. But he has run well at Michigan in the past.

If you’re looking for a dark horse, consider Ty Gibbs, who finished 10th last year in his third-ever Cup Series race. There is little data on Gibbs, but his finishes have steadily improved over his rookie season. He earned his first career top-five finish at Pocono and weighs in with six top 10s this season.