Don’t trust that the next-to-last playoff rankings mean anything
So, the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings are out. USC is No. 4, behind TCU and immediately ahead of Ohio State at No. 5 and Alabama at No. 6, with Tennessee lurking at No. 7.
Does this release of the playoff rankings mean anything? Maybe … but history has shown that the committee can and will change things around after the final weekend if results don’t follow expectations and even the slightest bit of chaos enters the picture.
There are a few things to say about this situation, so that you’re not ambushed on Sunday and the committee makes a decision you don’t agree with at all:
FIRST THINGS FIRST
The first obvious point to make is that if the top teams win, they won’t be displaced. That much is clear.
If you want a clean and controversy-free process, root for USC to win. The Trojans and TCU can lock up spots behind Georgia and Michigan if they win. This could be very clean and neat if the top teams take care of business.
IF USC OR TCU LOSE, HOWEVER ...
This is where things will get very controversial and explosive, or at least, where significant changes could occur.
If USC or TCU can’t hold serve, Ohio State and Alabama come back into the conversation. Maybe Tennessee gets a fresh look, but it’s likely an OSU-Bama debate among committee members if USC or TCU open the door.
REMEMBER THAT ESPN RUNS THIS EVENT
ESPN runs this event. ESPN wants a TV-friendly, ratings-grabbing game.
Ohio State-Georgia or Alabama-Georgia — which game is likely to be close in the fourth quarter? Based on what we saw from Ohio State, Alabama is much more likely to give ESPN a close game.
Plus: ESPN is entering a big, new SEC package under the Disney umbrella. There’s definite financial interest in putting an SEC team, not a Big Ten team, into the playoff.
Sure, Ohio State has lost only once and Alabama has lost twice, but no one should be surprised if Alabama magically leaps past Ohio State.
It did so in 2017 when OSU was a conference champion and Alabama did not win the SEC. Alabama beat Georgia for the national championship. The committee knows that. ESPN does, too.
We’re not saying it’s right or fair, just that there’s precedent for this kind of move if USC or TCU lose.
IF USC AND TCU BOTH LOSE = INSANITY
Alabama and Ohio State could both get into the playoff. USC would not like its chances under this scenario, but TCU losing could help the Trojans make it. Bet on Bama and Ohio State to get in here. Bama versus Michigan in the Fiesta Bowl, and Ohio State versus Georgia in the Peach Bowl, since Michigan played Georgia in last season’s semifinals.
IF USC WINS AND TCU LOSES
USC would go to the Fiesta Bowl against Michigan, but what about TCU if it loses to Kansas State? Remember that TCU got snubbed in 2014, the first year of the playoff, for Ohio State. That could happen again. Some will say that since Kansas State is No. 10 in the current playoff rankings and TCU already beat the Wildcats, the Frogs are in even if they lose. Maybe so.
However, no one at TCU is trusting that the committee will do the right thing.
DON'T LEAVE IT UP TO THE COMMITTEE
For every team on the fence, a word of wisdom: Don’t let the committee decide. Take the decision out of its hands. Win the games and end the argument there.
Right, USC?
