Dolphins upset bid may rely on blitzing Josh Allen to cause chaos for Bills offense

ORCHARD PARK - Now that the Miami Dolphins won’t have Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback Sunday, thus lessening the threat their offense poses for the Buffalo Bills, they will likely have to play outstanding on defense if they hope to pull a wild-card upset.

“Absolutely. It’s always been on us,” Miami linebacker Jerome Baker said Wednesday. “It is definitely unfortunate that he can’t play, but you win games by playing great defense. If they don’t score any points, you win the game. So it’s going to be up to us and our defense is up for the challenge.”

Well, Baker can pound his chest, and you would certainly expect him to, but you have to wonder if the Dolphins can do enough against a Josh Allen-led offense that finished second in the NFL in points scored and yards gained because it’s not like they’ve had much success this season.

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Bills vs Dolphins: The first two matchups this season

In the first game between these teams in Week 3, the Bills rolled up 497 yards, 31 first downs, and possessed the ball for more than 40 minutes yet lost 21-19 because they made so many self-inflicted mistakes that it made your head spin.

And then in the game on Dec. 17, the Bills rallied for a 32-29 last-second victory as they gained 466 yards and had 29 first downs. In the two games combined, the Bills converted 19 of 32 third downs, ran for 265 yards, and Allen threw for 704 yards with six TDs and no interceptions.

“I feel like I play him all the time and I really do,” Baker said of facing Allen, which he has done 10 times since they both entered the NFL in 2018, with Miami winning just twice. “We know them, they know us and it’s no secret what they’re going to do. It’s no secret what we’re going to do. We’ve just got to go out there and execute and get it done.”

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NFL rankings for Dolphins defense

Executing has been a struggle for the Dolphins for a chunk of the season. Their defense ranked 23rd in points allowed (23.5), 18th in yards allowed (333.7), and 27th in pass defense (234.8). And now they have to face the Bills, a team that has owned them since Allen showed up in the AFC East.

“Buffalo is a high-powered offense,” said cornerback Xavien Howard. “They’ve got a lot of weapons everywhere. It’s going to be a good matchup this week for us.”

What the Dolphins will need to do in this game, another thing they haven’t done well this season, is create turnovers. They had only 14 (eight interceptions, six fumble recoveries), a total that was tied with New Orleans for second-fewest. But in a game like this, they have to give their offense all the help they can in the form of either scoring on defense, or providing short field for rookie QB Skylar Thompson to work with.

Dolphins likely to come after Josh Allen with blitzes

Two of the fumbles came against the Bills, both on strip sacks of Allen, one by safety Jevon Holland in the first game, the other by linebacker Jaelan Phillips in the second game.

And both of those came on blitzes which should not come as a surprise because only the Giants had a higher blitz percentage this season than Miami. The Dolphins sent extra pass rushers on 33.3% of the opposing teams’ dropbacks (the Giants were at 39.4%). That led to 59 QB hurries, tied for third-most in the league, though the Dolphins’ sack total of 40 ranks only tied for 14th.

The Dolphins have been able to create some chaos for opposing quarterbacks, and the Bills have to be aware of it. Phillips led the team with 64 blitzes, Baker was next with 47, Melvin Ingram had 41 and Bradley Chubb was sent 35 times.

“They disguise and they move,” Bills left tackle Dion Dawkins said. “They’re always just scrambling around and their guys are always in different places. Whether it’s 15 (Phillips) on the line and then he’s up at the linebacker level or he’s in the 3-tech, they just do a good job of moving to different places. You might come to the line and be like, ‘Alright, he’s right here.’ And as soon as you look up there’s a different guy there.”

The Dolphins came after Allen in the first game on 38.4% of his dropbacks. On those plays he went 17 of 22 for 202 yards and two TDs, so it really didn’t work. Defensive coordinator Josh Boyer scaled it back in the second game and blitzed Allen 17.4% of the time. On those occasions he went just 5 for 8 for 64 yards, but again threw two TDs.

“They bring a variety of pressures, and I think within their pressures, their D-line does a good job, especially on the interior,” Allen said, singling out the defensive tackle duo of Christian Wilkins and Zach Sieler.

“They rush, try to cover up your guards and tackles and then they drop out and they try to take away some of the inside stuff and the quick game, which is typically what teams are trying to do. And when they get their opportunities on the quarterback, they’re stripping the ball and allowing themselves to recover it and give their offense a short field.

One of the key players for the Bills will be center Mitch Morse, who missed the game in Miami with an injury, then played in the game at Highmark Stadium. The Dolphins have a vast array of blitz packages, and Morse and Allen will have to recognize what’s coming and make the appropriate protection calls.

“That defense they have, they understand schematically what they’re trying to get done and they execute at a very high level,” Morse said. “And it’s a very formidable front in its own and then along with the blitz packages, it’s always a great challenge to go against that crew, and it’ll be another exceptional one come Sunday.”

Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana.To subscribe to Sal's new twice-a-week newsletter, Bills Blast, please follow this link: https://profile.democratandchronicle.com/newsletters/bills-blast

This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Bills vs Dolphins preview: Can Miami blitz cause chaos for Josh Allen?