Dolphins film study: Analyzing offense’s short-yardage issues in loss to Bills
One of the most puzzling phenomenons of the Dolphins’ offense has been their efficiency when facing long third-down situations and struggles with only a few yards to gain.
Those problems were underscored in Miami’s 32-29 loss to the Buffalo Bills last Saturday night, as the offense converted just 1 of 6 opportunities on 3rd-and-short (3 or fewer yards to gain a first down).
The Dolphins’ reliance on passing the ball and subsequent struggles in the short-yardage situation — they failed to convert on all five dropbacks — only added to claims after the game that coach Mike McDaniel, who also calls plays, diverted from the run game, which totaled 188 yards, in the second half. In his postgame news conference, McDaniel defended the run-pass ratio.
“You can either play scared, or you can try to continue doing what your offense is built to do,” he said. “And if they’re blitzing five-man pressures to stop the run, it’s going to get ugly. I was fine with the way the game went and I think all of our players would, if given the opportunity, the offensive line and the running backs believe in our receivers and quarterback, and you have to play to each other and take what the defense is getting giving you.”
A review of the game and tracking from the NFL’s Next Gen Stats showed that on five of Miami’s third-and-short dropbacks, the offense never faced a stacked box, which is defined as having eight or more defenders in the box at the time of the snap. On each dropback, the Dolphins either faced a neutral box (seven defenders) or a light box (six or fewer defenders). Still, there were opportunities when Miami dropped back to pass that were not taken advantage of.
First quarter, 9:26, Third-and-1, Miami 36: A handoff to fullback Alec Ingold, with pre-snap motion from Ingold and then tight end Durham Smythe, picks up 2 yards. It would be the first and only time the Dolphins ran the ball on third-and-short. Buffalo had seven defenders in the box.
First quarter, 3:49, Third-and-1, Buffalo 11: After wide receiver Trent Sherfield motions from right to left, Tagovailoa drops back from under center. His eyes shift to wide receiver Jaylen Waddle but two Bills defenders are in his vicinity. Tagovailoa takes a bit too long to move onto another receiver and can’t evade the pass rush and sack. The Dolphins settle for a 39-yard field goal to take a 3-0 lead. Buffalo had six defenders in the box.
Second quarter, 14:54, Third-and-goal, Buffalo 3: On arguably the biggest missed opportunity, the Dolphins run a pick play, using tight end Mike Gesicki to obstruct two Bills defenders. Sherfield runs a slant underneath the pick and Tagovailoa throws a low pass, likely to keep Sherfield out of harm’s way from linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, but Sherfield can’t complete the catch. Kicker Jason Sanders makes a 21-yard field goal and the Dolphins trail 7-6. Buffalo had seven defenders in the box.
Third quarter, 7:12, Third-and-2, Miami 39: Tagovailoa throws a short pass on an out route to Waddle but cornerback Tre’Davious White breaks up the pass. The Dolphins punt on the next play. Buffalo had six defenders in the box but lined up closely on Miami’s receivers before the snap with one deep safety.
Fourth quarter, 15:00, Third-and-3, Miami 17: Tagovailoa again throws a short pass on an out route, this time to wide receiver Tyreek Hill, and it is broken up by cornerback Taron Johnson. The Dolphins punt on the next play. Buffalo had six defenders in the box and lined up with one deep safety.
Fourth quarter, 12:42, Third-and-1, Buffalo 27: Tagovailoa fakes a shotgun handoff to running back Raheem Mostert and, with defensive end Gregory Rousseau barreling down on him, flips a pass to Smythe. Smythe is tackled for a loss of 2. Sanders makes a 46-yard field to give the Dolphins a 26-21 lead. Buffalo had six defenders in the box and lined up with two deep safeties.
Coincidentally, two of the largest gains through the air, a 32-yard completion to Waddle and then a 67-yard touchdown pass to Waddle, came in slightly longer third-down situations, on 3rd-and-4. But the Dolphins’ short-yardage situation struggles continue a season-long trend.
In third-and-short opportunities, Miami has converted 21 of 49 attempts, according to TruMedia. The 42.9 percent conversion rate ranks last in the NFL. Fifteen of those attempts have been runs (not including scambles and aborted plays in which the snap wasn’t handled) and the Dolphins have converted six times, a 40 percent rate. On their 33 dropbacks, they have converted 14 times, a 42 percent rate.
On third-and-medium situations (4-6 yards to gain a first), the Dolphins have converted 17 of 29 times (58.6 percent), which ranks third. On third-and-long (7 or more yards to gain), Miami has converted 23 of 84 tries (26.8 percent), which ranks 11th.
For much of the season, the Dolphins have succeeded in using the speed of their skill position players to maximize every blade of grass on the field. But when they seemingly have to play within a phone booth in short-yardage situations, they’ve stumbled.
