What is Dolphins’ biggest need entering Year 2 of the rebuild? Analytics site weighs in

A six-pack of Miami Dolphins notes on a Thursday:

▪ What’s the Dolphins’ biggest need entering Year 2 of the rebuild? If Dolphins draft picks Austin Jackson and Robert Hunt pan out (with Hunt at tackle instead of guard long-term), then there won’t be a need at tackle.

Clearly, upgrades can be made at guard, safety, running back, wide receiver, linebacker and defensive tackle.

But Football Outsiders, the respected metrics site, believes edge rusher remains Miami’s biggest need, even after the Dolphins added Emmanuel Ogbah and Shaq Lawson.

“Miami has a handful of great third or fourth pass-rushers but nobody who should be considered the cornerstone of a pass rushing unit,” the website said.

“Former Buffalo Bills defensive end Shaq Lawson and former Kansas City Chiefs defensive end Emmanuel Ogbah were the Dolphins’ biggest free agent signings this offseason, but neither has recorded more than 6.5 sacks in a season since they entered the league in 2016. Although the Dolphins did also sign Kyle Van Noy away from the New England Patriots, Van Noy is more of a utility piece and hybrid linebacker than a legitimate edge defender.

“In the draft, Miami’s only two swings at pass rusher came in the fifth round, with North Carolina’s Jason Strowbridge, who should be more of a ‘big end’ than a traditional pass-rusher, and Boise State sack specialist Curtis Weaver. At 6-foot-2 and 265 pounds, Weaver has a short and hefty build, but he bends quite well for someone his size. He racked up 34 sacks in three seasons at Boise State, earning at least 9.5 sacks each year.

“Our SackSEER projection system liked him as this year’s sleeper edge rusher in the draft. Still, a pair of middling free agent signings coupled with two fifth-round picks is not going to turn around the Dolphins’ pass rush in one offseason.”

I agree that Miami needs to address edge rusher in the 2021 draft, but I regard Lawson and Ogbah as better than middling.

▪ The Dolphins and Chiefs have essentially exchanged defensive ends, with Miami getting Ogbah on a two-year, $15 million deal in free agency, and Kansas City claiming Taco Charlton off waivers from the Dolphins.

Ogbah has a significantly better track record.

“We were really fortunate last year when we got Emmanuel Ogbah,” Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnulo told Kansas City media this summer. “He surfaced in the system, played good football and now he’s at Miami. Emmanuel and I have talked about this a lot, and a change of scenery for him was really good. So, I think the hope, certainly, is that maybe Taco can do the same thing.”

▪ College football TV analyst and former NFL quarterback Mark Sanchez watches Tua Tagovailoa and is somewhat spellbound. Sanchez told Fox’s Colin Cowherd:

“Sometimes you can’t even articulate what he did on film and it leaves you scratching your head because it’s so good, so fast and so instinctive. It’s almost like he’s processing what’s happening physically in front of him. And in those nanoseconds his body is already reacting. He’s already making decisions you didn’t even know he could make that quickly. It’s uncanny. He’s physically and mentally twitchy.”

CBS’ Nate Burleson said: “It’s great Tua takes care of the ball; he’s an intellectual QB. But he’s also going to learn to be a little risky at times because that’s what Ryan Fitzpatrick does.”

▪ Random Tagovailoa fact: Instead of having a blanket, Tagovailoa would sleep with a football next to him.

His family couldn’t have ornate light fixtures in the house because he was always throwing a football around his house.

And after a high school game performance that didn’t live up to expectations, he would go to a park in Hawaii and throw the football instead of going out with friends.

▪ What lessons can be learned on the Dolphins missing so badly on Charles Harris, the 22nd pick of the 2017 Draft who had 3.5 sacks in 41 games here before being shipped to Atlanta for a seventh-round pick?

Here’s one: Don’t hold a player’s family name against him. Someone very close to the situation said the Dolphins passed on Wisconsin’s T.J. Watt because they thought he was getting overhyped because of his famous brother (Houston Texans star J.J. Watt) and also because they feared he was a one-year wonder in college. He played sparingly at Wisconsin in 2015, then had 11.5 sacks in 2016 and then turned pro.

T.J. Watt has 34.5 sacks in 47 career games for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

And here’s the other good lesson, offered by Pro Football Focus’ Mike Renner:

“Harris was a dominant college rusher in the SEC with 116 pressures over his final two seasons at Missouri. He was also a horrendously poor athlete compared to his position.

“He’s on the small side at 253 pounds, which means he needed to be a good athlete to get by — and Harris was the opposite. He ran a 4.82 40, broad jumped 9-foot-1, had a 7.47 3-cone and a 4.42 shuttle. That’s simply not enough juice or change-of-direction ability to beat NFL tackles.”

The moral, Renner said, is athleticism matters.

▪ Quick stuff: Miami had four former players on Pro Football Focus’ all-decade team: Cameron Wake at 41, Brent Grimes at 53, Brandon Marshall at 61 and Ndamukong Suh at 71....The Dolphins have 10 picks in next year’s draft but are unlikely to get any compensatory picks… According to NFL Next Gen Stats, DeVante Parker had the NFL’s most tight-window catches last season (22); those are receptions in which the receiver has less than one yard separation from the player covering him.

Here’s my Thursday behind-the-scenes look at rules that leagues have put in place for reporters, and what that means for fans.