Does WR DeAndre Hopkins make Tennessee Titans a playoff team? A look at stats projections
More than any other move the Tennessee Titans have made this offseason, adding wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins inches the Titans closer to overtaking the Jacksonville Jaguars atop the AFC South.
Nearly every other move in this Titans' offseason has been an offsetting measure. Waive a tackle, sign a tackle. Lose a linebacker and guard to free agency, sign a linebacker and guard free agency. The names are new, but the roles haven't really changed.
Hopkins isn't that. Hopkins is a true No. 1 receiver, something the Titans lacked in 2022. Even at 31 years old, he's got the physical tools to thrive over the middle and rejuvenate the Titans' passing game while drawing focus out of the box and making life easier for running back Derrick Henry. Following the A.J. Brown trade, the Titans haven't had a player like that, one of the myriad reasons they finished last year on a seven-game losing streak to miss the playoffs.
Now, in Hopkins, the Titans have a player to fill the role Brown left behind.
How much does Hopkins change the Titans' offense?
ESPN analyst Mike Clay's projections model predicts Hopkins to catch 86 passes for 989 yards and four touchdowns. That level of production is roughly equal to what Denver Broncos receiver Jerry Jeudy and Indianapolis Colts receiver Michael Pittman Jr., accumulated last season, putting Hopkins outside the top tier of NFL pass catchers but in the realm of solid No. 1 targets.
Crucially though, the Hopkins signing didn't do much to change Clay's projections for Treylon Burks. Burks' projections only fell from 875 yards to 818 yards. With Hopkins projecting to be a better No. 1 than Burks and Burks projecting as a significantly better No. 2 option than Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, the Titans' passing fortunes change dramatically. Previously, Burks and Westbrook-Ikhine projected as the league's No. 26 tandem. Now, Hopkins and Burks project as the league's 14th-best duo.
Adding Hopkins also helped Henry's projections, if only a little. Even if Hopkins takes touches away from Henry, a better receiving corps means longer drives and thus more opportunities for the running back. Clay projects Henry to rush for 14 more yards and touch the ball three more times with Hopkins in the offense than he otherwise would've.
HOW'S IT WORK? Unpacking NFL's gambling rule that busted Titans' Nicholas Petit-Frere — and why it's not budging
BUILDING BACK: 4 options for Tennessee Titans at right tackle while Nicholas Petit-Frere serves suspension
Does this mean the Titans have caught up with the Jaguars?
Estimating the value of a lone receiver is tough. Think about it this way: Three of the NFL's top receivers changed teams last offseason — Brown, Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams. After adding Brown, the Philadelphia Eagles got five wins better. After adding Hill, the Miami Dolphins posted the same record they did the year prior. And after adding Adams, the Las Vegas Raiders got four losses worse.
Hopkins fills the Titans' biggest need. He doesn't just give the Titans a solid No. 1 target, but also creates a trickle down that makes the No. 2, No. 3 and No. 4 targets better. This helps Henry, tight end Chig Okonkwo and anyone quarterback Ryan Tannehill might hand or throw the ball to. But it doesn't fix the offensive line, create depth on defense or answer the Titans' nagging injury issues.
Hopkins and his trickle-down effect, plus healthy seasons for players like Tannehill and Jeffery Simmons, might make the Titans a win or two better. That's probably not enough to call the Titans favorites over the Jaguars, another team that's added players to an existing core to get better this offseason. But it draws things closer.
And in an AFC where nine wins is usually good enough to keep a team in the wild card hunt, making a 7-10 team a win or two better is huge. Adding Hopkins doesn't automatically make the Titans a Super Bowl contender, but it should be a huge boost to get the Titans back into the conversation as playoff hopefuls.
Nick Suss is the Titans beat writer for The Tennessean. Contact Nick at nsuss@gannett.com. Follow Nick on Twitter @nicksuss.
This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Do Tennessee Titans make playoffs with WR DeAndre Hopkins on roster?
