Did Jaguars GM Trent Baalke tip his 2024 NFL Draft plan?

The Jacksonville Jaguars held their annual pre-draft luncheon on Thursday afternoon, allowing general manager Trent Baalke and head coach Doug Pederson one last chance speak with media ahead of the 2024 NFL Draft.

Baalke and Pederson covered a wide range of topics during the roughly 30-minute press conference.

They discussed the progress they’ve made with Trevor Lawrence’s new contract and assessed where they feel the roster stands.

And through answers from Baalke, you can piece together breadcrumbs to arrive at a conclusion about Jacksonville’s draft plan for next week.

The Jaguars are angling for one of the top two cornerbacks with first-round pick, willing to move to secure player

It seems like the Jaguars are angling to use their first-round pick to draft a corner. The key term here is first-round pick and not the No. 17 pick they currently possess.

That’s because Baalke hinted at potentially moving from that spot if the opportunity presents itself.

“We feel good about the group that’s there at different positions that we’re focused in on a little bit. But you don’t know what’s going to happen, you really aren’t going to know what we’re going to do until maybe the 12th or 13th pick,” Baalke said. “Then, we’ll look at the opportunity to potentially move up. If we get to 16 like we did last year, then somebody calls and there’s a chance to move back one or two, you just don’t know. You’re playing it on game day.”

The picks he mentioned are important because of the teams drafting in that range. The Denver Broncos currently hold the No. 12 pick, a team that needs a cornerback among other positions. No. 13 is held by the Las Vegas Raiders who also need corner but may be more interested in investing in an offensive position like quarterback or tackle.

Then the next corner-needy team would be the Indianapolis Colts at No. 15, something Baalke addressed later, unintentionally.

2024 NFL Draft scenarios: How the Jaguars can improve their cornerback room

“The only thing we can control is calculated on if we really target someone and we really feel we need to make a run, let’s say get up to 12, get up to 13, we’ll be prepared to do that if the right person is there,” he said. The question was about similarities in this draft and the 2021 draft.

That targeted player would likely be either Toledo's Quinyon Mitchell or Alabama's Terrion Arnold. Those two players have been debated by draft analysts the entire draft cycle for which one is atop the class for cornerbacks.

If one of them come off the board early, Baalke and company may feel the need to jump ahead of the line to secure the other player.

The Raiders and Broncos would likely be willing to swap picks because both teams have been linked to quarterbacks and pick No. 17, along with a later-round pick, would allow them to take the best quarterback remaining and add depth to their respective rosters.

Earlier this week, Atlanta Falcons’ team reporter Terrin Waack published a mock draft where the team selects Arnold with the No. 8 pick in the draft.

It’d be a move that forces the Jaguars to take action to secure their pick. It’s also something NFL draft expert Daniel Jeremiah discussed on a draft call this week.

“If they were going to move up … It's going to be decently costly to go all the way up there to get Rome Odunze,” Jeremiah said when asked about the potential for Jacksonville to move into the Top-10 picks.

“I don't know if I see that happening quite as much. When I look at some other areas they can address on their team, especially with the corner spot, I think it would be more along the lines of them maybe trading up a few spots with a team like New Orleans to get in front of Indy, to get up in that range, maybe, to take a corner.

“I think that makes more sense to make a small move and go up there, if Terrion Arnold is or if Quinyon Mitchell is there. I think that would be a little more reasonable.”

Baalke is aware of teams prepared to potentially trade, has targeted the 12-15 range for possible trade up

The rumor mill recently was that Jacksonville was interested in springing into the Top-10 picks to select one of the top-3 wide receivers.

Baalke was outright asked if he’s talked with teams about moving up in the draft and his answer was very honest.

"Well, we know who's willing to move and we've had preliminary discussions on what that looks like, what it's going to cost to move up there,” he said. “I'm not a big believer in moving before draft day because what are you moving for?”

Baalke mentioned that unless you move to the No. 1 overall pick, there’s no reason to make a pre-draft move. And he’s correct, because there’s no telling how the board will fall once the first few teams are on the clock.

“You have exploratory conversations, you know what it's going to take you to get to the 12 or 13, 14, 15 or whatever the number is and then you wait until draft day to figure out whether you're going to do it or not,” Baalke said.

It was the second time he brought up those specific picks, hinting that they've put feelers out for those teams to figure out an asking price on the day of the draft.

If the cornerback class is so deep, why Mitchell or Arnold?

This cornerback class is deep with talent. Baalke noted during the press conference if you looked at 32 boards, you might find 32 different rankings for the top-10 corners.

But the top two have separated themselves from the pack according to most draft experts. And in Baalke’s eyes, it’s about the scheme they’ll play at the next level.

“How are you going to play the corners? You going to play them off-man? You going to play them on the line of scrimmage? Or press and run with guys,” he said. “I do think that plays into it. I think there's really good depth and really good skill at the corner position in this draft more so than maybe the last couple of drafts that I've been involved with here. So, it'll be interesting to see how these top guys fall off the board.”

Mitchell and Arnold can do it all. They are plug and play guys with good speed and physicality.

Qualities that’ll do well in new defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen’s presumed scheme. Baalke was asked about Nielsen’s role in how he will look for draft picks this year and he had another insightful answer.

“Ryan and his staff, we've had a very good dialogue. We've spent a lot of time when he first got here, going through exactly what he was looking for at the different positions,” Baalke said. “How we were going to play the corners in this scheme versus how we played them in the past, how the linebackers are going to fit and how we were going to get the SAM linebacker position filled from within. We had a lot of great dialogue and it's been fun to learn what he's looking for in players.”

Draft plan is flexible, can change in an instant

One statement rings out truer than any other from Thursday. You have to be prepared for anything on draft night.

“There’s so many things that can happen, you just got to go in prepared,” Baalke said. “The board is going to fall the way it falls; you can’t change that. You’ve just got to be ready for everything.”

The same way a move might force the Jaguars into action, there’s a reality where they stand pat and get the player they have circled right now.

There’s a reality where they trade back multiple times like last year and still end up with their guy.

There are just so many scenarios that could play out on draft night. But as it stands this seems to be the plan as laid out by Baalke’s breadcrumbs.

Juston Lewis is a Jacksonville Jaguars beat reporter for the Florida Times-Union. You can follow him on the website formerly known as Twitter at @JustonLewis_.

This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Baalke's breadcrumbs: Piecing together the Jaguars' NFL Draft plan