Detroit Tigers identified as 2024 sleeper team that could repeat Diamondbacks epic run

Could the Detroit Tigers be the MLB team that makes a surprise deep postseason run, similar to the Arizona Diamondbacks making the World Series last year?

It's a salivating thought for Tigers fans who have not seen postseason baseball at Comerica Park since 2014, tied for the longest postseason drought in the MLB. There's plenty of promise surrounding this young Tigers team during spring training, as they look to build on last year's 78-84 finish.

With potential cornerstones like Opening Day starter Tarik Skubal, Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, and other promising players like Parker Meadows, Colt Keith, Kerry Carpenter, Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Reese Olson, combined with free agent acquisitions Mark Canha, Gio Urshela, Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty, there is increased excitement about the Tigers' competitiveness heading into the season.

The belief the Tigers could take the leap to the postseason is real among players and fans during spring training. Skubal said his mind is set on competing for a playoff spot in a wide-open AL Central, which they lost by nine games to the Minnesota Twins in 2023. However, Harris and manager A.J. Hinch were quick to say the team needs to focus on what's in front of them in spring training rather than what could happen at the end of the season.

But still, the prospect of a quick turnaround is on the table, with a fresh blueprint laid by the Diamondbacks last year. Arizona was by no means the best team during the regular season, but won enough late in the season to finish a game ahead of the Chicago Cubs for the final NL wild-card spot.

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Arizona took advantage of the expanded MLB playoff format and proved big payrolls and household names aren't what always wins in October.

So the question is: Can the Detroit Tigers be that team this year? It is certainly plausible, especially considering the division the Tigers play in. The Twins won the AL Central with an 87-75 record last year, and are projected by FanGraphs to finish at the top of the division again with an 84-78 record.

The Tigers are projected to finish five games back with a 79-83 record, with the Cleveland Guardians sitting just ahead with an 80-82 projection. The FanGraphs projected bar for an AL wild card is 85 wins, with three teams in the East and West projected to finish at that line. But those projections can be wiped away over the course of the summer, as last year proved.

ESPN's David Schoenfield went through an exercise trying to identify who could be this year's version of the Diamondbacks, identifying different key categories where Arizona excelled last year to try to find the blueprint of a sleeper team that could make noise in the postseason, and the Tigers popped up a lot. Here are the five categories he chose to try to identify that next team, and how the Tigers fit into that mold.

Two top starting pitchers

The first category focused on the top of the team's rotations. Last year, the Diamondbacks had two top-end starters in Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, who solidified a rotation that was shaky at times (4.67 ERA as a whole) but combined to throw 210 innings, second-most in the majors. Those two started 10 of 17 postseason games for Arizona, pitching 38% of the team's postseason innings according to ESPN.

The Tigers were not mentioned as one of the three other teams in that category, but the potential to have two rock-solid starters is there. Skubal returned from injury in July and posted a 2.80 ERA with 14 walks and 102 strikeouts across 80⅓ innings in 15 starts last season. If the left-hander can stay healthy, he projects to be a top-end rotation option in Detroit for the foreseeable future.

The main question is, who can be that other option for Detroit in a deep rotation with a lot of guys trying to stay healthy? The Tigers currently have six starters and will try to trim it down to a five-man rotation to use during the regular season. The two free agency additions, Maeda and Flaherty, provide veterans to the rotation with solid numbers. Mize, a former No. 1 overall pick, is making his return to the lineup after missing most of 2022 and all of 2023. Manning (78 innings) and Olson (103⅔ innings) both logged considerable time for Detroit last season while splitting time in Toledo.

Good defense

The second tenant ESPN identified was strong play in the field, and the Tigers were once again not mentioned. The Diamondbacks finished fourth in the MLB in defensive runs saved (DRS), a metric that tracks team defense. Along with the plus-46 DRS, the Diamondbacks had two Gold Glovers in Christian Walker and Gabriel Moreno, who also helped Arizona to a top-two defense against stealing.

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The Tigers sat just above league average in DRS last season, finishing in 13th with a plus-22 DRS in 2023, according to Baseball Reference. Detroit, however, committed the fourth-most errors by a team (100) and it was reflected in their fielding percentage (.983), leading to extra chances to score for the other team. The Tigers also had a number of players who were below league average at their respective positions in defensive runs saved (Torkelson, Greene, Carpenter, Nick Maton, Matt Vierling).

Develop a star

This is where we get our first mention of the Tigers by ESPN, though it is probably not in the way Tigers fans would hope. ESPN identified Corbin Carroll as the Diamondbacks' star after he won Rookie of the Year last season and posted a 5.4 WAR, top 15 in the MLB. The Tigers were mentioned in a negative light, being labeled as a team that's "in trouble" in the star department despite the collection of potential.

On the Tigers' star power, Schoenfield wrote: "Detroit's best position player according to WAR in 2023, however, was ... drum roll ... Andy Ibanez at 2.0. Riley Greene (1.9), Kerry Carpenter (1.9), Spencer Torkelson (0.8), and rookies Parker Meadows and Colt Keith form the foundation, but I'm not sure any of them are future stars at the 5-WAR level."

Out of Detroit's young players, Greene and Torkelson have shown the most on the MLB level to suggest they could step into a bigger role. Torkelson launched 31 home runs last year, but was inconsistent on defense and as an all-around hitter, batting .233 batting average with a .313 on-base percentage. Greene hit .288 with 11 home runs, 35 walks and 114 strikeouts over 99 games, posting a .796 OPS, but ended the season early after needing Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing elbow.

Carpenter was a pleasant surprise last year in his first full season, mashing 20 home runs and posting a .278 batting average in 118 appearances last year. Meadows took over center field in August after making his MLB debut and flashed a great glove, but needs to improve at the plate. Keith, who has yet to make his MLB debut, is projected to be the starting second baseman after tearing it up in the minors and already secured a long-term contract with the Tigers.

Figure out the bullpen at the right time

The fourth pillar identified was a bullpen that surges at the end of the season to close out typically close and nerve-racking games, and the Tigers bullpen was identified as one that could fit that mold as a team to "keep an eye on." The Diamondbacks bullpen got hot to close the year after trading for Paul Sewald to be the closer at the deadline, and moved Kevin Ginkel into a setup role to solidify the end of games for Arizona and gave them the option to use bullpen days as the fourth starter in the playoff run.

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On the Tigers bullpen, Schoenfield wrote: "Their bullpen was just 17th in the majors in ERA, but ranked fifth in win probability. There are no big names here, but Tyler Holton (2.11 ERA), Jason Foley (2.61) and Will Vest (2.98) each posted sub-3.00 ERAs while Alex Lange took over as the closer. If Lange can develop more consistency and throw more strikes -- he walked 6.1 batters per nine -- Detroit's pen could be good enough."

Lange isn't locked into the closer role after the team brought in veterans Andrew Chafin and Shelby Miller to increase the talent and competition amongst the late-inning options. Lange, 28, picked up 26 saves in 32 opportunities as the closer last season, but posted a 5.18 ERA with a 17.6% walk rate in his final 43 appearances. Miller, 33, logged a 1.71 ERA with 19 walks and 42 strikeouts across 42 innings in 36 games with one save for the Dodgers last year.

Farm system that can improve team mid-season

The Tigers also received a "keep an eye on" designation for the fifth and final category identified by Schoenfield for their strong pipeline of minor league talent that could receive a summer promotion. Last year, the Diamondbacks used their farm system to swing trades for Sewald and Tommy Pham, while elevating Brandon Pfaadt and reliever Andrew Saalfrank for the postseason run.

On the Tigers' farm, Schoenfield wrote: "Hmm ... maybe Detroit is shaping up as the sleeper team to watch? The Tigers' farm system is third in McDaniel's rankings, although they're not going to be trading any top guys such as Jackson Jobe, Max Clark, Keith, or Jace Jung. Still, there is enough depth here to make a move -- and if they are contending in the division, which is not unlikely, they'll probably need a bat for the lineup."

Clark, Keith, Jobe and Jung were all ranked as top-100 prospects by MLB Pipeline and Baseball America before the season. ESPN had two more Tigers' prospects in their top 100, Meadows and shortstop Kevin McGonigle.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Why Detroit Tigers may be 2024 sleeper team to match D-backs epic run