Detroit Red Wings playoff push: Breaking down what needs to happen tonight to stay alive

Dylan Larkin knows what it is like to be on the other side, and knows how great the challenge remains for the Detroit Red Wings.

They are down to their last four points — and need at least one Monday to stay in the playoff race — and every one of them still won't be enough without outside help.

The Wings could beat the Canadiens in Detroit on Monday and again in Montreal on Tuesday to max out at 91 points, but the playoff race for the second wild card in the East is so congested that other teams — most vitally, the Washington Capitals — have to lose in order for the Wings to succeed.

And while the Canadiens are long eliminated, that doesn't mean it will be easy. Five years ago the Wings won eight of their last 12 games after being eliminated.

"We’ve got Montreal and man, that’s dangerous with the way they’ve been going," Larkin after Saturday's 5-4 overtime victory at the Toronto Maple Leafs. "We’ve been in that position that they’re in and it’s a whole different ball game than what we’ve been playing these last games. We need to show up and have our foot on the gas."

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Larkin's goal 41 seconds into overtime bumped the Wings to 87 points, but the Capitals also have 87 points with two games remaining and own the tiebreaker with 30 regulation victories to Detroit's 27. Had the Wings won in regulation in Toronto to reach 28, they would still have had the possibility of reaching 30 regulation wins, and if Washington should go past regulation to win their last two games and both they and Detroit reach 91 points, the Wings would have the edge because of the second tiebreaker — they already have 37 regulation-or-overtime victories to Washington's 34.

The Penguins (86 points, two games left) are also still a threat, as they can reach 90 points. They play the Nashville Predators on Monday. If the Capitals lose their last two games, the Wings bank only three more points to reach 90, and the Penguins win Monday, the Wings could be in a situation where their fate hinges on the outcome of Wednesday's Penguins-New York Islanders game. Should the Wings and Pittsburgh both reach 90 points, the Wings would be on the outs because the Penguins already have four more regulation victories.

That's a lot of numbers to juggle, but all the Wings can try to manage is their own math.

"If we win out and we don’t get there, you probably have to tip a hat to someone who won their way through," coach Derek Lalonde said. "Not only they win, they will have beat some really good competition.

"That’s why that point the other night (in Pittsburgh) was so important — I really felt if we could hang in there and get five or six points down the stretch, we’d have a chance. We’ve got two now and it’s on us the next game. So we will need a little bit of help but we’ll try to control what we can control, and that’s our start on Monday."

The Wings play at 7 p.m. Monday, the same time the Capitals host the Boston Bruins. If the Wings lose in regulation, they're eliminated, because then they max out at 89 points, and either the Capitals or the Philadelphia Flyers — who play each other Tuesday — will get to that amount, and both hold the tiebreaker over Detroit.

That might rattle some teams, but since the Wings endured a seven-game skid through March, they've learned the skill of resilience. They've gone through experiences like playing a strong team game and still losing to the New York Rangers, like going all-out against the Capitals and still losing, and bounced back time and again.

"I think that shows the compete and battle of this group," Lalonde said. "They stay composed, they never give up. They stay on it. It’s been impressive to watch. We’re not a perfect team, we’re far from it, we have a lot of flaws, and we’re building. It’s where we’re at. But this group — they stay in the fight. I’m pretty proud of them."

In the midst of playing five games in eight days, and going into a back-to-back, the Wings took Sunday off to rest and recharge. The path, as Lalonde likes to put it, remains open, and the Wings have a look about them that says they'll pave it to their best ability, foot on the gas, with the knowledge they may need to tip their hats.

Contact Helene St. James at hstjames@freepress.com. Follow her @helenestjames.

Read more on the Detroit Red Wings and sign up for our Red Wings newsletter. Her latest book, “On the Clock: Behind the Scenes with the Detroit Red Wings at the NHL Draft,” is available from  Amazon, Barnes & Noble and Triumph Books. Personalized copies available via her e-mail.

Next up: Canadiens

Matchup: Red Wings (39-32-9) vs. Montreal (30-36-14).

Faceoff: 7 p.m. Monday; Little Caesars Arena, Detroit.

TV/radio: Bally Sports Detroit Extra; WXYT-AM (1270).

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Red Wings playoff push: Tiebreakers and other scenarios