Detroit Pistons predictions for 2023-24: Troy Weaver will trade 2 players by the deadline

The most critical Detroit Pistons season in years begins this week.

The franchise is looking for signs its on the right track as it enters Year 4 of Troy Weaver's rebuild dubbed the "restoration."

Cade Cunningham is back after missing most of last season. Jaden Ivey, Jalen Duren and other young players are looking to take the next step.

The roster boasts its most skilled group of veterans in years, giving coach Monty Williams a variety of options at nearly every position.

The Pistons' season tips off Wednesday when they visit the Miami Heat. Here are six predictions for their 2023-24 NBA season.

Jalen Duren will average more than 12 points and 12 rebounds

It seems likely Duren will average a double-double in his second season, after posting 9.1 points and 8.9 rebounds in 25 minutes per game as a rookie. Factor in improved playmaking with Cunningham’s return and Duren’s personal growth as a player (he’s still 19 years old for another month), and 12 and 12 is a realistic outcome.

It would put Duren in exclusive territory, as only two players averaged more than 12 rebounds last season — Anthony Davis, and Domantas Sabonis. Lower the threshold to 11, and the list widens to Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic, Nikola Vucevic, Rudy Gobert, Clint Capela and Steven Adams. Duren has a chance to establish himself as one of the NBA’s top young centers.

Pistons will trade 2 veterans before the deadline

The Pistons have two positional logjams to sort out.

The first is at point guard, where the Pistons have five players — Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Killian Hayes, Monte Morris and Marcus Sasser — competing for minutes. The second is at center, as the rotation likely only has room for one of James Wiseman or Marvin Bagley III, with Duren and Isaiah Stewart penciled in to earn time.

There are also more viable wings than Williams can play every night. The Pistons have several veterans on expiring contracts. Bojan Bogdanovic will make $20 million this season, but is only partially guaranteed for $2 million in 2024-25. Joe Harris ($19.9 million), Alec Burks ($10.5 million) and Morris ($9.8 million) are pending unrestricted free agents.

That should give the Pistons a significant amount of flexibility at the trade deadline. Weaver has made at least one midseason trade every year since he became GM in 2020. It would be surprising to see the team sit pat before the Feb. 8 deadline. Their record may dictate which direction they go — will they push for a player who would help them make the play-in tournament, or shoot for assets? — but they have incentive to explore the market and see what they can get for their outgoing vets.

Cade Cunningham will play 65+ games

Because of injuries, the 2021 first overall pick played 64 games as a rookie and just 12 last season, as he was shut down in November with a stress fracture in his left shin. Reaching 65 games this season would qualify Cunningham for NBA awards — including Most Improved Player, for which he’s currently a favorite.

Both Cunningham and the team have been adamant his injury issues are behind him after undergoing surgery to repair his shin, which had been ailing him for some time before he got it fixed. Other than missing a preseason game with tendonitis, there haven’t been any red flags.

Ausar Thompson will lead all rookies in rebounding

We’re dealing with small sample sizes, but Thompson has been a rebounding machine. He averaged 10 per game during summer league and 9.3 in four preseason games — third in the league, behind Andre Drummond and Sabonis — boosted by his 29.1 minutes per game, second most in the NBA.

No rookie will grab more rebounds this season than Thompson. There was a significant gap between Thompson and 7-foot-4 Spurs phenom Victor Wembanyama, who grabbed 4.8 per game in 20.9 minutes per game.

Thompson is one of the few rookies in his class on track to be an opening night starter. That will change as the season progresses, and he could eventually see rebound competition from some of the bigs in his class, such as Jarace Walker and Taylor Hendricks. But Thompson is already an outlier rebounder as a 6-foot-6 wing. He crashes the glass with his entire body, and is already one of the league’s most gifted vertical athletes.

It would be more surprising if he isn’t the rebounding leader of his class. And he has a chance to be among the NBA's best, regardless of tenure.

They will win 30+ games

I know, I know. It feels as though we’ve made this prediction each year since the team drafted Cunningham, and we’re talking about a team coming off of a league-worst 17-win season. They haven’t cracked 30 wins since the 2018-19 season, when they went 41-41. There are certainly some in the fanbase who feel this team is permanently stuck in the mud.

But the Pistons should show meaningful progress. Beyond Cunningham’s return, they have a cohort of offensively skilled veterans. Bogdanovic, Burks, Morris and Harris have all played for winning teams and will give Williams’ offense structure as the young players develop. There’s also the chance someone from that group (Ivey? Duren?) will make a leap this season.

Thirty wins isn’t a high bar — all but four teams reached that threshold last season. And while the Pistons had the worst record of the bunch, they also lost or shut down most of their key players late in the season due to injury. They were bad, but not 17-wins bad. A 13-win improvement is very possible, as long as they stay healthy. Their over/under win total on sportsbooks is 27½ — only Washington's 24½ are fewer.

They will be above-average from 3-point range

The Pistons shot the ball decently from outside: Their 35.1% 3-point mark ranked 22nd across the league, one percent below league average.

This year’s team should be better. Harris (43.7%), Bogdanovic (39.4%), Morris (39.2%) and Burks (38.4%) are all among the league’s best. Given Williams has preached the importance of floor spacing, we can expect he’ll lean on that veteran core to give the Cunningham-Duren pick-and-roll the room it needs to function. The team has a great chance to crack the top 15 in 3-point percentage.

Contact Omari Sankofa II at osankofa@freepress.com. Follow him @omarisankofa.

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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Pistons predictions: Troy Weaver trades 2 players by deadline