Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings: Dave Birkett's scouting report, prediction
Detroit Lions (10-4) at Minnesota Vikings (7-7)
The coaches: Lions-Dan Campbell (27-32-1 overall, 22-25-1 with Lions); Vikings-Kevin O’Connell (20-11 overall, 20-11 with Vikings).
Last game: Lions beat the Denver Broncos, 42-17; Vikings lost to the Cincinnati Bengals, 27-24 (OT).
Last meeting: Dec. 11, 2022: Lions won, 34-23.
Key matchups
Lions QB Jared Goff vs. Vikings DC Brian Flores: This is a little untraditional, but so is the way the Vikings play defense.
Flores, the former head coach of the Miami Dolphins and defensive coordinator of the New England Patriots, operates at two extremes. He blitzes often, unafraid to send multiple extra rushers. And when he doesn’t blitz, he frequently drops eight men into coverage.
That puts a lot on Goff’s plate when it comes to deciphering coverages and making quick decisions. Goff hit a turnover rut where he threw five interceptions and lost four fumbles in a recent four-game stretch, but he’s coming off a clean game against the Broncos.
Historically, Goff has struggled against Flores-coached defenses. He’s 0-2 in two starts against Flores, losing five turnovers in those games. That includes the Patriots’ 13-3 win over the Los Angeles Rams in Super Bowl LIII.
Lions CB Cam Sutton vs. Vikings WR Justin Jefferson: Sutton is coming off one of his best games of the season, shutting down Broncos receiver Courtland Sutton last week, with plenty of help from his safeties. He’ll have his hands full Sunday with Jefferson, a top-three receiver in the NFL.
Jefferson has missed seven games this season with a hamstring injury, but has played the past two weeks and is coming off a seven-catch, 10-target game against the Bengals. The Lions blanketed Jefferson in the first meeting last year, holding him to three catches for 14 yards, before he erupted for a season-high 223 yards on 11 grabs in the second meeting.
Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn said the team doubled Jefferson in both games, he simply found a way to make plays in the rematch. They’ll roll with a similar plan Sunday, and Cam Sutton should take point in trying to stop Jefferson.
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Scouting report
Lions run offense vs. Vikings run defense
The Lions have been a machine running the football in the second half of the season. They have at least 115 yards rushing in seven straight games with balanced production from Jahmyr Gibbs (792 yards rushing) and David Montgomery (855 yards) this season.
Gibbs is a special player, with elite acceleration. He’s a home run threat anytime he touches the ball, though the Vikings have allowed one run of 20-plus yards this season and rank fifth in the league against the run (92 ypg).
Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson said the Vikings tend to play lighter than the offense’s personnel grouping — they don’t play much base defense, for instance, even against two tight end looks — but do a good job rallying to the ball. Jonathan Bullard and Harrison Phillips are premium run-stoppers up front, though Phillips missed practice this week with a back injury. Undrafted rookie linebacker Ivan Pace has four straight games with nine or more tackles. Edge: Lions
Lions pass offense vs. Vikings pass defense
Goff has been a different quarterback at home than on the road this season. His three lowest passing performances of the year have come in road games against the Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints. He’s completing 64.4% of his passes on the road and 69.9% at Ford Field.
Goff is coming off one of his best games of the season, a 278-yard, five-touchdown performance against the Broncos, and he should have his entire starting offensive line in front of him for this game. The Lions have started to incorporate Jameson Williams more, but Amon-Ra St. Brown, who ranks fifth in the NFL in receiving yards, and Sam LaPorta remain Goff’s top two targets.
The Vikings rank 17th in the NFL against the pass at 224 yards per game, and their aggressive scheme can sometimes yield big plays. Danielle Hunter is second in the NFL with 15½ sacks and has four forced fumbles. Cornerback Byron Murphy (three INTs) is nursing a knee injury and ruled out. Edge: Vikings
Vikings run offense vs. Lions run defense
The Vikings have run the ball effectively, partly out of necessity, since they lost quarterback Kirk Cousins to a torn Achilles. They’ve had at least 125 yards on the ground in five of their last six games and got a big day from Ty Chandler (23 carries, 132 yards) last week against the Bengals.
Chandler should handle workhorse duties in the backfield again as starting running back Alexander Mattison is questionable with an ankle injury. Chandler has big-play ability — he had a 103-yard kickoff return negated by penalty earlier this year — but the Vikings have not gotten consistent production on the ground despite a solid offensive line.
The Lions rank eighth against the run at 95.9 ypg and have bottled up most of the backs they’ve faced this season (while struggling at times with running quarterbacks). Rookie linebacker Jack Campbell has emerged as a solid complement to Alex Anzalone at linebacker, and he could play a bigger-than-usual role with Derrick Barnes nursing a shoulder injury. Edge: Lions
Vikings pass offense vs. Lions pass defense
With Cousins out, the Vikings have cycled through quarterbacks, giving Josh Dobbs and Jaren Hall starts before settling on Nick Mullens. Mullens threw for 303 yards and two touchdowns against the Bengals, but also had two interceptions and took three sacks.
“I think he’s a facilitator,” Lions coach Dan Campbell said. “He’s the guy that’s going to get them in the right play. He’s going to be able to read the coverage, get it in the hands of his playmakers.”
The Vikings have plenty of playmakers in the passing game in Jefferson, rookie receiver Jordan Addison and tight end T.J. Hockenson, who leads all tight ends with 91 catches for 902 yards this season. The Lions have had their ups and downs against the pass. They rank in the bottom third of the NFL in sack and interception rate, and they're splitting No. 2 cornerback reps between Khalil Dorsey and Kindle Vildor, but will likely have to wait a week to get a boost from a C.J. Gardner-Johnson return. Edge: Vikings
Special teams
The Lions made an unexpected change at kicker last week, going with practice squad kicker Michael Badgley and waiving Riley Patterson. Badgley did not attempt a field goal, but was 20 of 24 on kicks for the Lions last season. The Lions are one of the best coverage teams in the NFL. They lead the league in opposing drive start on kickoffs and rank 10th in punt return average (7.9 ypr). Jack Fox has two touchbacks in 45 punts this season and has landed nearly half his punts inside the 20.
The Vikings, like the Lions, have one of the more aggressive special teams units in the NFL. Chandler has converted two fake punts on runs as a personal protector and Kene Nwangwu has three career kick return touchdowns. The Vikings haven’t kicked the ball particularly well this season, though, as Greg Joseph is 5 of 11 on field goals of 40-plus yards. Edge: Lions
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Prediction
The Lions can clinch their first division title in 30 years with a win Sunday at U.S. Bank Stadium. The Lions are a more complete team than the Vikings, but knocking off the defending NFC North champs, in Minneapolis, in a game they need to win to stay in playoff contention, won’t be easy.
Minnesota’s recipe for victory is to get the ball in its playmakers hands against the Lions’ suspect secondary, and get after Goff with its relentless defense. Goff hasn’t played well against Flores-coached teams in the past, and if he starts getting jumpy, the Lions will be in for a long day. Given all that’s on the line, though, I expect the Lions to come out and play inspired. They have a good enough rushing attack to keep Minnesota’s pass rush at bay, and as good as the Vikings’ skill players are, there’s no reason the Lions should let Mullens beat them. Pick: Lions 27, Vikings 21
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Lions vs. Vikings: Why I think they clinch NFC North
